Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Atlanta (+5.5) over NEW ENGLAND

• New England’s offense is above average, but they are not likely to score 30+ points as they have the last couple of weeks.
• The Patriots have a 45% early-down success rate (18th) and a 51% late down success rate (5th). I expect those to both converge around 13th.
• Drake Maye is averaging 4.9 yards per rush while the rest of New England’s ball carriers are averaging 3.6 yards per rush. The Falcons have only allowed 3.7 QB carries per game (8th-fewest), and I expect them to keep Maye in the pocket like they did against Josh Allen in their win over the Bills – rendering the ground game useless.
• Atlanta’s defense has an 8.0% sack rate (9th), and they will apply consistent pressure against a Patriots offensive line surrendering the 10th-highest quick pressure rate.
• The Falcons will need to avoid cover 1 but dial up the blitz. Atlanta’s defense has a 52% blitz rate (2nd-highest), and they will limit Drake Maye, whose yards per attempt against the blitz is 89% of his yards per attempt versus standard pass rush (29th).
• Michael Penix is likely going to suit up this week, and Drake London should be back as well to spark this Falcons passing attack. TE Kyle Pitts is averaging 1.47 yards per route run (10th) and has a favorable matchup as New England’s defense is allowing a 62% success rate to opposing tight ends (25th).
• The Patriots have been dominating on both sides of the ball the last two weeks, winning 32-13 last week and 31-13 in their previous game. However, teams that scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 14 points in consecutive games are just 21-60 ATS in their next game, including 5-31 ATS if the opponent has been underperforming (season spread percentage of less than 0.500).
• Atlanta, meanwhile, is coming off a humiliating 10-34 home loss as a touchdown favorite to Miami and the Falcons apply to an 84-28-1 ATS situation that plays on teams that lost the spread by 25 points or more the previous week.
• Our model favors the Patriots by 5.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.0 points, so the line is fair and the situation strongly favors the Falcons.

Atlanta is a 1-Star Best Bet at +4.5 points or more.