Game Analysis

LA RAMS (-14) vs New Orleans

• The Saints are making a change at quarterback this week, starting Tyler Shough. Shough didn’t win the battle in training camp but was better than Spencer Rattler in college. However, Shough is averaging just 3.2 yppp in the NFL on a limited sample.
• The betting market thinks it’s a small downgrade as the Rams moved from -13.5 to -14 when Shough was announced as the starter.
• Rattler had a league-high 5.4% Turnover Worthy Play Rate, and I expect Shough to be less aggressive trying to fit passes into small windows, as Shough had just a 2.4% interception rate in college despite throwing the ball down the field quite often (13.1 yards per completion average). Shough also tends to throw the ball away rather than taking sacks (he was sacked just 14 times on 403 pass plays at Louisville last season) and negative plays have been an issue for Rattler (18 sacked on 274 pass plays this season). New Orleans could turn into an under team with Shough, especially without starting C Erik McCoy.
• The Rams offense is coming off the bye and getting back starting RT Rob Havenstein and WR Puka Nacua, who has a league-high 69% success rate.
• Our model favors the Rams by 14.4 points, with a predicted total of 47.1 points.