Game Analysis

Lean – Over (43.5) – LA Chargers (-9.5) vs TENNESSEE

• Justin Herbert averaged 7.9 yards per pass play last Thursday night against Minnesota with LT Joe Alt suiting up in his first game since September.
• Herbert is averaging 0.24 EPA/dropback with Alt on the field compared to -0.10 EPA/dropback without Alt.
• Herbert will have plenty of time in the pocket on Sunday as Tennessee’s defense will likely again be without its top two pass rushers, Jeffrey Simmons and Arden Key, who are worth 2.6 points combined by our metrics.
• Chargers TE Oronde Gadsden is averaging 2.25 yards per route run (2nd), but I do not think he’ll be as featured in the game plan this week. The Titans are conceding a 50% success rate to opposing tight ends (10th).
• Tennessee’s defense traded two starting cornerbacks and CB L’Jarius Sneed is sidelined. Herbert leads the NFL in targeting wide receivers on 69.5% of passes, and he will attack the Titans’ backup cornerbacks.
• Los Angeles is missing a cornerback of their own after Tarheeb Still suffered an MCL sprain in the last game and is expected to miss two to four weeks. Still is allowing 0.48 fewer yards per cover snap than backup CB Benjamin St-Juste and is worth a half point.
• Our model favors the Chargers by 15.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.0 points, but Tennessee applies to a very good 145-59-5 ATS situation that plays on horrible teams coming off a blowout loss. I used LAC -9.5 in my spread pool but would have used Tennessee at +10 or more.