Game Analysis

Note: Tennessee was released early in the week when the line was +4.5. The Titans are still a Best Bet at +3.5.

1-Star Best Bet – *Tennessee (+4.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

• Tennessee is making an upgrade under center by going from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph. Levis is averaging -0.16 EPA/play and just 5.2 yards per pass play while Rudolph is averaging 0.04 EPA/play and 6.1 yppp this season, which is also his career average.
• Denver’s defense had 21 pressures last week on Anthony Richardson as the Colts are missing the entire starting right side of the offensive line.
• Indianapolis starting RG Will Fries was conceding only a 4.1% pressure rate while backup Dalton Tucker is allowing a 9.3% pressure rate and he will struggle across from interior defender Jeffery Simmons, who has 38 pressures (14th).
• Anthony Richardson only has one game this season with a better than 50% completion rate when he’s thrown at least 19 passes and I don’t expect him to make it two such games on Sunday.
• Colts WR Josh Downs is averaging 2.12 yards per route run in the slot (6th) but he will be limited by nickelback Roger McCreary, who is conceding 0.95 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th).
• Indianapolis wide receiver Alec Pierce has 10 deep receptions, but he will be out and his field stretching is worth 0.4 points by our metrics.
• The Colts apply to a very negative 27-91 ATS situation that applies to losing teams with a worse than average defense coming off a double-digit loss. Tennessee, meanwhile, applies to a 57-9-1 ATS same season road underdog revenge situation and the Titans also apply to a 47-13-2 ATS situation that plays on teams with a season spread win percentage of 0.200 or worse.
• Our model favors the Colts by 2.7 points, with a predicted total of 40.0 points, and the situation strongly favors the Titans.

Tennessee is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 points or more (Strong Opinion at +3).