Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet- *Under (51.5) – BUFFALO vs Baltimore (-1)

• These two teams played in the Divisional Round last season with this exact total of 51.5, but the game combined for only 689 total yards, which equates to 45.9 expected points because the Ravens had a run rate of 53% and the Bills had a run rate of 61%.
• I believe the total would’ve closed 50.5 if these teams had played a rematch the next week after getting the information on how these teams want to attack each other, with a heavy emphasis on running the ball.
• Baltimore’s offense was run-heavy because the Bills’ defense does not like to put three linebackers on the field to match the Ravens’ heavy personnel, instead preferring to play nickelback Taron Johnson for the majority of snaps. Buffalo’s defense had a league-low 4% base personnel rate in 2024.
• The Bills love to utilize the ground game under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Buffalo dropped from 7th in neutral pace to 18th when Brady took over for Ken Dorsey in the middle of 2023, and the Bills finished 27th in neutral pace last season.
• Buffalo’s offense will likely lean on the ground game again because they don’t have receiver talent to threaten Balitmore’s improved secondary, which added two-time All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander. Alexander only played half of the last two seasons, but he’s graded as Green Bay’s best CB when healthy by PFF.
• Alexander joins a Ravens’ cornerback group already with All-Pro Marlon Humphrey and CB Nate Wiggins, who conceded only a 48% completion percentage when targeted, ranking 3rd-best in the NFL as a rookie last year.
• Baltimore’s secondary is further bolstered by All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton and this year’s first-round pick S Malaki Starks, who Hamilton has described as “miles ahead” of where he was as a rookie.
• While Baltimore’s defense got better this offseason, Lamar Jackson’s protection will take a step backwards, losing guard Patrick Mekari and replacing him in-house with last season’s backup Andrew Vorhees.
• Ravens WR Zay Flowers didn’t suit up for the playoff game, but his being on the field for this game is negated by the loss of TE Isaiah Likely, who ranked 6th in success rate among tight ends in 2024.
• Buffalo didn’t really improve the supporting cast for Josh Allen either. The Bills made a small addition with free agent WR Josh Palmer, but he averaged the same yards per route run as WR Amari Cooper, who they lost. Buffalo’s defense also only made a minor change, swapping edge defender Von Miller for edge defender Joey Bosa.
• To recap, this game would’ve been priced at 50.5 if a rematch had been played in January after we saw how run-heavy both coaching staffs intended to be. The Ravens’ defense is better, adding two-time All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander while Baltimore’s offense is worse slotting last year’s backup guard into the starting lineup.
• Those two moves add up to about a point, putting us at 49.5 for a price, but that is before we account for defenses being ahead of offenses at this time of year. Historically, week 1 scoring is 2 points below the season median.
• The market is partially accounting for this on the whole, but not for this game. The average OU in week 1 is currently a half point lower than the lookahead lines for the rest of the season, despite scoring conditions being a half point better than average for this particular week 1 (no bad weather across the league). The market is quantifying the defensive edge in week 1 at 1 point, but we think it should be 2 points.
• There’s no way you can reasonably argue this total should be priced the same as it was in the Division Round after we saw how the game played out, the offseason changes, and defenses being ahead of offenses to start the year.
• Our model favors the Bills by 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 46.6 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 51 points or more (Strong Opinion at 50.5).