Game Analysis

San Francisco (-2.5) vs SEATTLE

• The Seahawks had a complete makeover on offense this offseason changing coordinators and quarterbacks. Sam Darnold is 1.2 points worse than Geno Smith according to our metrics. Even in a career year for Darnold last year, Smith had a completion percentage over expectation 0.9 percentage points above Darnold.
• Seattle’s new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak had the Saints as our 12th-rated offense before Derek Carr’s injury at the end of their week 5 game. The market offensive prior on the New Orleans offense coming into the season was 26th so there’s a case to be made Kubiak is a talent raiser, although it’s a small sample.
• The Seahawks did downgrade going from wide receiver DK Metcalf to 32-year-old Cooper Kupp, but they upgraded the interior offensive line with first-round pick Grey Zabel.
• The 49ers’ defense is pretty much running back the same personnel that allowed 25.6 points per game last season (29th). There’s only been some minor swaps like replacing edge rusher Leonard Floyd with first round pick Mykel Williams and interior DL Maliek Collins with second round pick Alfred Collins.
• The market never really bought in on San Francisco’s defensive slide, rating that unit consistently above average all through the back half of last season. All-Pro LB Fred Warner was playing on a broken ankle starting in week 4 and All-Pro edge rusher Nick Bosa missed three games and played through a painful hip injury in the back half of the year.
• The 49ers defense isn’t going to be elite like coordinator Robert Saleh’s previous stint, but it will be better than last season.
• San Francisco’s offense was 11th in EPA/play last year despite ranking 31st in Adjusted Games Lost to injury. I believe the 49ers will get back into the top 10 in scoring because the team will be healthier and Brock Purdy is clearly getting better. Purdy had his best season last year, dealing with injuries to every skill player. He was able to create outside of structure, ranking 9th in EPA/play when pressured outside the pocket.
• Seattle’s defense allowed -0.02 EPA/play (9th) in the second half of last season after trading for LB Ernest Jones and I expect them to be a borderline top 10 unit again.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 2.4 points with a predicted total of 44.0 points.