Game Analysis

LA RAMS (-3) vs Houston

• The Rams were 2 points better than average in market power ratings by the end of last season and the Texans were a +1.5.
• I believe the Rams had a better offseason than the Texans, adding WR Davante Adams, who averaged 0.15 more EPA/target last year than Cooper Kupp. Los Angeles also signed interior defender Poona Ford, who graded as the 5th-best run defender by PFF in 2024.
• Ford will shore up the run defense on an already dominant pass-rushing defensive line that had an 8.2% sack rate last season (4th) with two rookies and two second-year players. Jared Verse, Byron Young, Kobie Turner, and Braden Fiske should get even better in 2025, and they are clearly a top 5 defensive line by our metrics.
• This is bad news for CJ Stroud as Houston completely remade the offensive line in the offseason – and I don’t see the vision. Stroud was the 10th-most pressured quarterback last year and the talent is now clearly worse.
• LT Laremy Tunsil ranked 4th in pass blocking efficiency for the Texans last season, and they are replacing him with a 2nd round rookie.
• Houston’s new LG Laken Tomlinson surrendered 6 sacks in 2024 (7th-worst).
• Texans’ new C Jake Andrews is coming off a torn meniscus and only has 71 career snaps. It’s telling the Patriots didn’t keep him, given the state of their interior line.
• Houston’s new RG Ed Ingram has been the worst full-time starting guard in the NFL the last three seasons. The Vikings finally benched him for Dalton Risner down the stretch last year and then completely remade their interior line this offseason.
• The Texans want to play Tytus Howard at right guard, but last year’s second-round pick Blake Fisher couldn’t show enough in camp, so they have to shift Howard out to right tackle.
• Stroud will have more autonomy at the line of scrimmage to change protections this season under new offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and Houston better hope that solves the problems because they are clearly less talented on offense.
• Our model favors the Rams by 3.2 with a predicted total of 44.9.