Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Dallas (+8.5 -115) over PHILADELPHIA

Lean – Under (47.5)

• The betting market is currently valuing the Eagles at 6 points better than average despite them never rating that highly throughout the entirety of last season, and the team is now clearly worse on both sides of the ball.
• Philadelphia’s defense lost edge rusher Josh Sweat and interior defender Milton Williams, who ranked 1st and 3rd on the team last season in pressures. Also, edge defender Brandon Graham retired, and Bryce Huff is gone. Graham and Huff tied for 6th for the Eagles’ defense in pressures.
• Making matters worse, two of last year’s backups in the secondary have now been thrust into the starting lineup with safety Sydney Brown replacing CJ Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Kelee Ringo starting in place of the departed Darius Slay. Ringo surrendered 1.6 more yards per target than Slay last year.
• On offense, Philadelphia loses coordinator Kellen Moore and Kevin Patullo is stepping in. Patullo has been on staff since Nick Sirianni arrived in Philadelphia and he’s been passed over twice for the coordinator role when they hired Brian Johnson in 2023 and Moore in 2024. I doubt very much Patullo will be a play-calling upgrade from Moore.
• The Eagles’ offensive line lost RG Mekhi Becton this offseason and LG Landon Dickerson is banged up with a meniscus injury in his right knee. Dickerson and Becton ranked 8th and 13th respectively in run blocking grade by PFF last year.
• I have Dallas down near the bottom in terms of defensive power rating after losing nickelback Jourdan Lewis and edge defender Micah Parsons, who is valued at 1.6 points, but this isn’t suddenly the worst unit in the NFL.
• The Cowboys’ pass rush isn’t going to be awful after adding three-time Pro Bowl interior defender Kenny Clark and edge rusher Dante Fowler, who ranked 11th in pass rushing efficiency last year.
• Dallas also still has two All-Pro cornerbacks in the secondary in DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs, who has been a full participant in practice after missing training camp.
• The Cowboys’ offense is undervalued heading into the season, likely due to Dak Prescott being out for the back half of last year and averaging -0.12 EPA/play (30th) when backup Cooper Rush was taking the snaps. Dallas lost RG Zack Martin but added WR George Pickens, who averaged 2.06 yards per route run in 2024 (18th). The market is starting the Cowboys’ offense a point and a half lower than they were last season, which is far too much of an adjustment.
• Since 2016, when Dak was drafted, there have been 39 quarterbacks to get 2000 dropbacks. This is filtering out all the awful QBs who weren’t good enough to get 2000 dropbacks; the worst guys on this list are Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Dak ranks 6th in success rate in that group between Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson.
• There aren’t any glaring issues along the offensive line or with the group of receivers. We have Dak’s supporting cast rated 11th heading into 2025.
• In summary, the Eagles were never rated this highly by the market last season, they’ve lost 5 starters, defensive line depth, and the offensive play caller. The Cowboys are slightly underrated after the Parsons trade because the offense is going to be a solid unit regardless. I don’t think you can make Philadelphia more than a touchdown favorite here.
• Our model favors the Eagles by 6.7 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points (updated for more rain expected tonight), and Dallas applies to a 75-32-3 ATS opening week contrary angle.

Dallas is a 1-Star Best Bet at +7.5 or more  (Strong Opinion to +7).