Game Analysis

Lean – Under (38.5) – Pittsburgh (-3) vs NY JETS

• I’m not optimistic about New York’s new look offense, particularly in this matchup. Offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand was terrible as a play caller in the XFL as his DC Defenders ranked 2nd-worst in scoring before the season was cut short by COVID.
• I expect the Jets to be extremely run-heavy, but the Steelers allowed just 4.3 yards per rush last year (10th) and should be an even better run-stopping unit in 2025.
• Pittsburgh’s additions of Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey allow the Steelers to use man blitzes because it gives them three capable cornerbacks. Furthermore, Ramsey will be a weapon as a nickleback on the inside because he ranked 2nd in PFF Run Defense Grade among cornerbacks in 2024. Pittsburgh’s defense will get an extra guy in the box against New York’s rushes with safety DeShon Elliott coming down. Elliott had 17 run stops last season (8th).
• The pass protection for Justin Fields is looking bleak with rookie RT Armand Membou getting his first NFL start across from TJ Watt, and the player next to him, RG Alijah Vera-Tucker, is now out after suffering a season-ending torn triceps muscle earlier this week. Vera-Tucker ranked 6th in pass blocking efficiency last season and is worth half a point.
• Pittsburgh’s defense is most vulnerable to quick-passing games, ranking 31st in EPA/play when QBs throw in under 2.5 seconds, but this will not be exploited by Fields, who averaged a 3.10-second time to throw in the first 6 weeks last season (3rd-slowest).
• Aaron Rodgers will make his Steelers debut in an offense set for record tight end usage after trading for Jonnu Smith. Pittsburgh’s offense already used 13 personnel on 17% of snaps last year and I could see it rising to 25% this season. The Jets do not have the linebacker depth behind Quincy Williams and Jamien Sherwood to match Pittsburgh’s heavy personnel.  New York’s third linebacker is Jamin Davis, who got only 107 snaps in 2024.
• Jets’ head coach Aaron Glenn’s Lions defense led the NFL with a 44% man coverage rate last season, but his unit could struggle as Arthur Smith’s offense averaged 20% more yards per attempt versus the blitz than a standard pass rush in 2024 (2nd).
• Steelers’ C Zach Frazier ranked 4th in pass blocking efficiency last season and he will help contain Quinnen Williams, who had 54 pressures (6th).
• Our model makes Pittsburgh a 3.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 37.5 points – and Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin has a history of going Under on the road (90-61-2 Under in road games as a head coach).