Game Analysis
BALTIMORE (-11) vs Oakland
The Ravens ran the ball on 53 of their 74 offensive plays last week with Lamar Jackson’s 27 rush attempts in his first career start marking the second-most ever by a quarterback in an NFL game. Jackson gained 117 yards on the ground but looked shaky in the passing game. Fellow rookie RB Gus Edwards also had a breakout game, forcing 7 missed tackles and gaining 5.35 yards per rush after contact. Oakland’s defense ranks 30th in our metrics and I don’t think they will be the team to expose Baltimore’s gimmick offense while Joe Flacco is out.
Oakland’s offense looks like a completely different unit than it did in preseason with the absence of RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Amari Cooper, and most importantly, Pro Bowl left tackle Donald Penn. I expect Terrell Suggs to feast on Penn’s backup Kolton Miller, the only tackle in the league to concede double-digit sacks. Lynch was not great but he was certainly better than the rest of Oakland’s running backs and it is exceedingly unlikely that the Raiders will find success versus the Ravens 2nd-rated rush defense. Derek Carr’s top 4 wide receivers coming into the year won’t be available with Brandon LaFell out for the season with a torn Achilles, Martavis Bryant also likely out for the year with a PCL injury, Jordy Nelson nursing a bruised knee, and Amari Cooper traded to Dallas. Jared Cook is one of the few guys left and he could potentially expose one of Baltimore’s only defensive weaknesses as they allow 8.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends (25th).
The Ravens have the edge in special teams as expected with John Harbaugh at head coach. Justin Tucker has the most 50-yard field goals without a miss and 18 of Sam Koch’s 20 punts in coffin corner situations have pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line. Our model favors the Ravens by 10.7 with a predicted total of 43.0 points, so there is no value on this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.2
28.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.4%
49.6%
-
Sack Rate
9.3%
3.1%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.8%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.1%
52.4%
-
NYPP
6.7
9.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.6
30.8
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
19.9%
21.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.1%
44.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.6%
46.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
61.8
59.4
-
Early Down Succ
54.3%
48.7%
-
Succ Rate
50.9%
46.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.3%
50.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
6.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.3
29.8
-
Run Ratio
39.8%
51.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.6
30.3
-
Game Control
-4.3
4.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.8
36.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.7%
44.4%
-
Sack Rate
4.9%
9.3%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.0%
18.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.7%
38.7%
-
NYPP
6.6
5.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.5
24.6
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
23.6%
26.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.5%
37.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.3%
39.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
69.3
61.5
-
Early Down Succ
47.8%
42.7%
-
Succ Rate
48.7%
41.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
35.2%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.2
29.2
-
Run Ratio
41.9%
39.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.1
28.3
-
Game Control
2.4
-2.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LA |
13 – 33 L |
-1.4 |
48.8% /
44.1% |
2.4% /
2.9% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
6.6 |
56.5% /
55.6% |
17.4% /
3.7% |
4.1 /
5.2 |
64 /
61 |
52.8% /
54.2% |
51.6% /
49.2% |
39.2% /
39.3% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.9% /
44.3% |
23.5 /
27.0 |
| 2 |
@DEN |
19 – 20 L |
6.1 |
72.7% /
36.1% |
3.0% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
8.5 /
6.0 |
44.4% /
57.1% |
18.5% /
17.9% |
3.4 /
6.0 |
60 /
64 |
67.3% /
42.6% |
60.0% /
45.3% |
41.3% /
57.7% |
6.2 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
43.8% |
23.9 /
25.7 |
| 3 |
@MIA |
20 – 28 L |
2.8 |
57.1% /
48.0% |
7.1% /
4.0% |
5.1% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
13.3 |
55.9% /
20.0% |
14.7% /
33.3% |
3.3 /
2.8 |
76 /
40 |
62.1% /
43.3% |
56.6% /
37.5% |
32.6% /
62.8% |
5.7 /
9.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.7% /
37.5% |
19.7 /
30.6 |
| 4 |
CLE |
45 – 42 W |
-2.1 |
53.3% /
37.2% |
5.0% /
4.7% |
3.5% /
4.9% |
7.1 /
6.5 |
33.3% /
43.8% |
36.7% /
21.9% |
4.7 /
6.5 |
90 /
75 |
52.1% /
42.1% |
46.7% /
40.0% |
44.2% /
57.8% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
33.3% /
42.7% |
34.9 /
26.1 |
| 5 |
@LAC |
10 – 26 L |
-9.9 |
68.0% /
78.3% |
12.0% /
4.3% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
9.9 /
14.5 |
61.5% /
27.3% |
23.1% /
30.3% |
3.2 /
2.5 |
38 /
56 |
55.6% /
45.5% |
65.8% /
48.2% |
59.5% /
43.4% |
7.6 /
7.4 |
2.6% /
0.0% |
34.2% /
58.9% |
21.2 /
35.3 |
| 6 |
SEA |
3 – 27 L |
-15.9 |
37.8% /
50.0% |
16.2% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
2.9 /
8.9 |
52.6% /
46.2% |
15.8% /
15.4% |
4.2 /
4.0 |
56 /
63 |
46.5% /
45.7% |
42.9% /
47.6% |
31.9% /
46.9% |
3.3 /
5.9 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
61.9% |
20.5 /
42.2 |
| 8 |
IND |
28 – 42 L |
-1.5 |
57.1% /
61.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
55.0% /
66.7% |
15.0% /
11.9% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
48 /
73 |
61.1% /
66.7% |
56.3% /
64.4% |
47.4% /
36.3% |
7.3 /
6.3 |
2.1% /
0.0% |
41.7% /
57.5% |
26.1 /
35.6 |
| 9 |
@SF |
3 – 34 L |
-16.4 |
31.3% /
59.1% |
25.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
11.9 |
37.5% /
28.6% |
20.8% /
31.4% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
56 /
57 |
39.0% /
45.0% |
33.9% /
40.4% |
44.4% /
74.0% |
4.3 /
7.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
61.4% |
23.6 /
28.9 |
| 10 |
LAC |
6 – 20 L |
-5.9 |
39.0% /
48.1% |
9.8% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
5.0 /
8.2 |
43.5% /
57.7% |
21.7% /
19.2% |
5.0 /
4.3 |
64 /
53 |
45.5% /
59.5% |
40.6% /
52.8% |
45.3% /
47.5% |
5.0 /
6.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
35.9% /
49.1% |
23.1 /
21.6 |
| 11 |
@ARI |
23 – 21 W |
1.4 |
48.5% /
33.3% |
12.1% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
10.0% |
5.2 /
6.1 |
60.6% /
41.9% |
15.2% /
32.3% |
4.6 /
5.0 |
66 /
52 |
60.8% /
42.5% |
54.5% /
38.5% |
47.4% /
43.3% |
4.9 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
59.6% |
29.9 /
29.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% /
20.5% |
5.0% /
15.4% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.3 /
1.8 |
44.1% /
22.7% |
29.4% /
31.8% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
43.3% /
24.4% |
43.2% /
21.3% |
43.1% /
39.9% |
5.0 /
2.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
45.9% /
36.1% |
41.3 /
30.5 |
| 2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
49.1% /
45.2% |
7.0% /
0.0% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
18.2% /
28.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
79 /
70 |
50.0% /
45.6% |
49.4% /
44.3% |
35.5% /
43.7% |
5.4 /
5.3 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
40.0% |
22.6 /
36.3 |
| 3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
48.8% /
45.9% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
32.3% /
45.8% |
19.4% /
33.3% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
72 /
61 |
43.1% /
47.8% |
41.7% /
45.9% |
33.9% /
39.9% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
39.3% |
27.2 /
33.4 |
| 4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% /
47.9% |
4.5% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
8.1 /
5.5 |
48.5% /
16.7% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
77 /
60 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
48.1% /
41.7% |
32.7% /
42.1% |
5.9 /
4.8 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
42.9% /
20.0% |
36.8 /
21.2 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
80.6% /
62.1% |
6.5% /
17.2% |
3.4% /
4.2% |
9.5 /
10.5 |
48.0% /
46.4% |
32.0% /
35.7% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
56 /
57 |
47.8% /
45.5% |
66.1% /
54.4% |
35.1% /
57.7% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
49.1% |
31.4 /
19.7 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% /
26.9% |
0.0% /
42.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
2.0 |
44.4% /
28.6% |
27.8% /
35.7% |
3.4 /
3.9 |
73 /
40 |
37.7% /
33.3% |
45.2% /
27.5% |
44.5% /
42.5% |
5.0 /
2.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
35.0% |
29.9 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
NO |
23 – 24 L |
1.7 |
46.3% /
45.2% |
2.4% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
12.5% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
71 |
50.0% /
48.0% |
48.4% /
47.9% |
19.7% /
31.2% |
5.5 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.9% /
56.3% |
21.8 /
27.6 |
| 8 |
@CAR |
21 – 36 L |
-10.2 |
45.7% /
60.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
77.8% /
31.4% |
16.7% /
20.0% |
5.6 /
4.5 |
64 /
65 |
56.0% /
47.9% |
54.7% /
44.6% |
26.2% /
26.3% |
5.1 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
53.8% |
23.0 /
37.5 |
| 9 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
-6.1 |
37.5% /
51.0% |
5.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.8 |
50.0% /
48.1% |
37.5% /
14.8% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
56 /
76 |
44.2% /
45.8% |
41.1% /
50.0% |
47.8% /
27.8% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
35.5% |
26.0 /
23.8 |
| 11 |
CIN |
24 – 21 W |
1.3 |
52.4% /
39.5% |
9.5% /
2.6% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
47.4% /
37.5% |
15.8% /
31.3% |
4.7 /
3.0 |
78 /
54 |
53.6% /
38.5% |
48.7% /
38.9% |
33.7% /
56.5% |
5.2 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
73.1% /
29.6% |
31.6 /
31.5 |
Oakland Raiders
@ 
Baltimore Ravens