New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – MINNESOTA (-1) vs New Orleans

This rematch of last year’s Minnesota Miracle will feature the league’s best tandem of offensive tackles versus the league’s best edge rushing duo with Everson Griffen expected to return after sitting out for personal reasons since week 3. Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead rank 1st and 5th respectively in pass blocking efficiency and lead a Saints offensive line that’s surrendered the 2nd-fewest pressures in the league (37). Everson Griffen will be an impactful boost for this Vikings defense as he’s made 3 consecutive Pro Bowls and recorded 13 sacks in 2017 (4th), while Danielle Hunter 34 pressures thus far in 2018 rank 3rd among edge rushers.

Drew Brees has been fortunate to be the only qualifying quarterback without an interception this season as it is expected one of his 220 passes would’ve been tipped/batted into a fluke pick even if he’d played flawlessly. However, Brees has a decent shot of getting out of this game without a turnover because he should be able to reliably check-down to Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram with Minnesota’s defense allowing 9.5 yards per target to opposing running backs (last). Pro Bowl defenders Anthony Barr and Xavier Rhodes are both banged-up but Mike Zimmer thinks there’s a good chance they will play, while starting safety Andrew Sendejo remains questionable.

The Saints traded for Giants’ CB Eli Apple, who’s only slightly above replacement level, but he should be a major improvement as their second cornerback opposite Marshon Lattimore given that Ken Crawley is conceding 2.21 yards per cover snap this season, which ranks last among all 75 qualifying cornerbacks. So, Apple is an upgrade even if though he’s worse than average. Adam Thielen’s 100-yard game streak continued last week and he also leads the league with 43 first down receptions. Thielen is gaining 2.21 yards per route run from the slot this season and it will be interesting to see how P.J. Williams, who’s filled in adequately for the injured Patrick Robinson, matches up inside. Williams has surrendered just 0.79 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 5th among nickelbacks since he started playing regularly in week 4.

Our model makes this game pick but Minnesota applies to an 80-25-1 ATS home momentum situation while New Orleans applies to a 36-97-2 ATS road letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win at Baltimore. I will lean with Minnesota based on the situation and this Sunday night clash will certainly be worth watching as two of the top teams in the NFC square-off.

Team Stats
Game Log

Saints
Vikings

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.0 35.0
Succ Pass Plays 58.8% 58.1%
Sack Rate 4.2% 6.3%
Int Rate 0.0% 1.3%
Deep Pass Rate 14.1% 21.1%
Big Pass Yards 45.5% 42.1%
NYPP 8.0 8.8

Rush

Rush Plays 29.3 24.0
RB YPR 3.5 2.8
Stuff Rate 14.8% 25.7%
Succ Rush Plays 49.2% 41.7%
Big Rush Yards 28.1% 33.4%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.1

Game

All Snaps 67.3 59.0
Early Down Succ 58.2% 51.5%
Succ Rate 54.4% 51.1%
Big Yards Rate 41.0% 40.4%
Yards Per Play 6.1 6.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 29.3
Run Ratio 43.2% 40.5%
Starting Field Pos 31.4 26.1
Game Control 1.2 -1.2

Points 34.0 27.2

MIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 44.4 35.3
Succ Pass Plays 51.6% 47.5%
Sack Rate 6.1% 8.8%
Int Rate 1.0% 2.8%
Deep Pass Rate 13.4% 20.0%
Big Pass Yards 30.3% 54.7%
NYPP 6.7 7.6

Rush

Rush Plays 22.3 24.1
RB YPR 3.6 3.8
Stuff Rate 27.8% 24.3%
Succ Rush Plays 35.4% 47.7%
Big Rush Yards 48.4% 29.1%
Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.8

Game

All Snaps 66.7 59.4
Early Down Succ 49.0% 50.5%
Succ Rate 46.8% 47.5%
Big Yards Rate 35.7% 47.6%
Yards Per Play 5.7 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 1.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.2 30.9
Run Ratio 33.5% 40.6%
Starting Field Pos 29.1 29.1
Game Control -0.3 0.3

Points 25.3 23.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TB	40 – 48 L	-7.4	73.9% / 64.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 14.9	69.2% / 43.2%	23.1% / 18.9%	3.3 / 3.1	59 / 65	77.6% / 56.5%	72.9% / 52.3%	36.4% / 62.7%	8.1 / 8.2	3.4% / 0.0%	22.0% / 56.9%	25.9 / 26.4
2	CLE	21 – 18 W	-2.8	63.2% / 48.5%	7.9% / 9.1%	0.0% / 3.3%	5.6 / 7.1	37.5% / 33.3%	25.0% / 14.8%	2.6 / 3.4	62 / 60	60.4% / 43.5%	53.2% / 41.7%	30.8% / 43.4%	4.5 / 5.5	3.2% / 0.0%	38.7% / 45.0%	35.0 / 28.4
3	@ATL	43 – 37 W	0.3	56.0% / 63.2%	2.0% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 9.4	53.6% / 21.7%	14.3% / 43.5%	5.1 / 2.1	78 / 61	57.4% / 52.1%	55.1% / 47.5%	37.9% / 36.3%	6.9 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	35.9% / 37.7%	29.8 / 24.1
4	@NYG	33 – 18 W	3.5	42.9% / 56.8%	2.9% / 6.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 5.3	48.6% / 50.0%	8.6% / 18.8%	4.9 / 4.1	70 / 60	51.0% / 58.3%	45.7% / 55.0%	55.4% / 29.3%	5.6 / 5.0	0.0% / 3.3%	50.0% / 26.7%	33.9 / 22.5
5	WAS	43 – 19 W	15.4	71.4% / 69.2%	7.1% / 11.5%	0.0% / 4.3%	12.5 / 9.4	36.1% / 50.0%	5.6% / 27.8%	2.8 / 2.2	64 / 44	54.9% / 48.8%	51.6% / 61.4%	54.3% / 51.2%	7.0 / 6.4	1.6% / 2.3%	56.3% / 40.9%	36.2 / 33.4
7	@BAL	24 – 23 W	-1.7	45.2% / 46.3%	3.2% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 6.7	50.0% / 52.2%	12.5% / 30.4%	3.4 / 3.3	71 / 64	48.0% / 50.0%	47.9% / 48.4%	31.2% / 19.7%	4.8 / 5.5	1.4% / 0.0%	56.3% / 35.9%	27.6 / 21.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	24 – 16 W	7.6	43.6% / 38.9%	7.7% / 8.3%	0.0% / 9.1%	5.8 / 6.6	40.6% / 44.0%	21.9% / 32.0%	3.6 / 3.6	71 / 61	43.4% / 41.7%	42.3% / 41.0%	24.5% / 60.9%	4.8 / 5.4	1.4% / 1.6%	45.1% / 41.0%	33.3 / 23.1
2	@GB	29 – 29 T	-6.3	56.0% / 48.9%	4.0% / 8.9%	2.1% / 0.0%	8.2 / 5.6	44.4% / 54.2%	5.6% / 25.0%	3.8 / 4.1	68 / 69	53.7% / 55.4%	52.9% / 50.7%	44.4% / 31.3%	7.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	26.5% / 34.8%	26.5 / 29.9
3	BUF	6 – 27 L	-22.0	47.5% / 40.0%	6.8% / 12.0%	1.8% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.6	16.7% / 42.1%	50.0% / 23.7%	2.3 / 3.4	65 / 63	48.0% / 42.9%	44.6% / 41.3%	3.8% / 42.1%	4.5 / 4.6	3.1% / 0.0%	9.2% / 60.3%	17.7 / 40.2
4	@LA	31 – 38 L	-3.9	51.9% / 60.0%	7.4% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 13.0	35.3% / 57.1%	35.3% / 14.3%	3.2 / 4.8	71 / 56	45.3% / 68.1%	47.9% / 58.9%	38.8% / 55.7%	6.3 / 9.9	1.4% / 0.0%	23.9% / 37.5%	27.2 / 26.6
5	@PHI	23 – 21 W	7.0	74.2% / 80.8%	3.2% / 11.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 10.9	44.0% / 58.8%	20.0% / 11.8%	3.2 / 4.8	56 / 43	62.5% / 63.6%	60.7% / 72.1%	48.8% / 51.9%	6.7 / 8.5	1.8% / 4.7%	44.6% / 39.5%	27.0 / 30.9
6	ARI	27 – 17 W	8.0	54.1% / 37.1%	10.8% / 11.4%	3.0% / 3.2%	5.8 / 5.9	42.4% / 40.0%	18.2% / 30.0%	5.9 / 3.1	70 / 55	54.7% / 48.8%	48.6% / 38.2%	31.3% / 41.3%	5.9 / 4.9	1.4% / 1.8%	47.1% / 36.4%	30.9 / 25.5
7	@NYJ	37 – 17 W	7.4	34.1% / 26.7%	2.4% / 6.7%	0.0% / 7.1%	5.6 / 4.3	24.0% / 37.5%	44.0% / 33.3%	3.6 / 3.0	66 / 69	35.4% / 33.3%	30.3% / 30.4%	58.0% / 50.2%	4.8 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.4%	37.9% / 34.8%	41.4 / 27.3

New Orleans Saints @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Oct 28

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis