Game Analysis
Two teams at the bottom of the NFC South because of their poor defensive play. Both teams are led by more than capable quarterbacks who have been putting up points this year. Drew Brees has been hyper-efficient in an offense that is averaging 29.4 points per game. And while Cam Newton has not repeated his MVP performance of last year, he is leading an effective passing attack averaging 6.7 NYPP (9th in the league). While the 29th ranked Saints passing defense is unsurprising, the Panthers inability to get stops for the 20th ranked pass defense combined with the -7 turnover differential are the big differences between this year and last. The advanced stats model leans to the Saints on the Road and Under, both are below model thresholds for plays.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
42.9
39.1
-
Succ Pass Plays
56.3%
51.3%
-
Sack Rate
3.4%
4.4%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
18.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.2%
35.5%
-
NYPP
7.6
7.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.6
27.4
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
12.1%
20.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.1%
45.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
25.9%
35.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
69.4
66.6
-
Early Down Succ
54.2%
51.3%
-
Succ Rate
53.1%
48.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.9%
37.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.2
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.6
26.4
-
Run Ratio
37.7%
41.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.5
29.3
-
Game Control
-0.0
0.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.8
40.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.0%
48.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
3.4%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.3%
17.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.1%
33.9%
-
NYPP
6.7
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.6
24.0
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
19.3%
25.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.1%
40.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.5%
35.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
67.3
64.2
-
Early Down Succ
49.6%
48.3%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
35.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
26.3
-
Run Ratio
42.5%
37.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.3
27.2
-
Game Control
1.9
-1.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
OAK |
34 – 35 L |
4.0 |
58.5% /
48.6% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.2 /
8.6 |
54.5% /
57.7% |
18.2% /
23.1% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
63 /
63 |
60.8% /
55.8% |
57.1% /
52.4% |
58.4% /
56.4% |
8.0 /
7.7 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
34.9% /
41.3% |
19.7 /
28.6 |
| 2 |
@NYG |
13 – 16 L |
-2.0 |
43.5% /
60.5% |
4.3% /
4.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
8.2 |
38.5% /
33.3% |
15.4% /
25.0% |
3.2 /
1.9 |
59 /
79 |
47.8% /
53.6% |
42.4% /
48.1% |
15.3% /
32.8% |
4.9 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
3.8% |
22.0% /
45.6% |
29.6 /
21.5 |
| 3 |
ATL |
32 – 45 L |
-7.9 |
50.0% /
59.4% |
3.6% /
6.3% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
7.0 |
56.5% /
48.5% |
4.3% /
9.1% |
5.0 /
6.6 |
79 /
65 |
51.6% /
57.1% |
51.9% /
53.8% |
49.6% /
49.8% |
6.0 /
6.8 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
29.1% /
50.8% |
23.8 /
32.6 |
| 4 |
@SD |
35 – 34 W |
-2.3 |
50.0% /
43.5% |
5.3% /
6.5% |
5.6% /
2.3% |
5.0 /
6.7 |
36.8% /
33.3% |
10.5% /
38.1% |
2.3 /
1.8 |
76 /
67 |
42.0% /
39.6% |
43.4% /
40.3% |
19.0% /
38.7% |
3.7 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
50.0% /
31.3% |
36.9 /
31.4 |
| 6 |
CAR |
41 – 38 W |
11.3 |
61.2% /
49.0% |
2.0% /
4.1% |
2.1% /
2.1% |
9.4 /
6.2 |
47.6% /
50.0% |
19.0% /
10.7% |
3.0 /
3.7 |
70 /
77 |
58.5% /
54.0% |
57.1% /
49.4% |
51.4% /
18.9% |
7.5 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
30.0% /
36.4% |
21.9 /
32.8 |
| 7 |
@KC |
21 – 27 L |
-7.9 |
63.3% /
54.2% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
8.9 |
72.7% /
30.0% |
9.1% /
16.7% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
71 /
54 |
66.7% /
46.3% |
66.2% /
40.7% |
25.9% /
44.8% |
6.5 /
6.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
31.0% /
55.6% |
22.6 /
22.7 |
| 8 |
SEA |
25 – 20 W |
-2.7 |
62.2% /
48.6% |
5.4% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.8 /
8.1 |
40.0% /
76.5% |
14.3% /
17.6% |
3.5 /
4.4 |
72 /
52 |
49.1% /
61.0% |
51.4% /
57.7% |
28.8% /
35.1% |
5.2 /
6.9 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
48.6% /
32.7% |
26.9 /
27.1 |
| 9 |
@SF |
41 – 23 W |
10.2 |
55.0% /
52.5% |
2.5% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
8.1 /
9.8 |
52.3% /
47.1% |
13.6% /
23.5% |
5.7 /
5.5 |
84 /
57 |
54.0% /
58.7% |
53.6% /
50.9% |
45.4% /
56.0% |
6.8 /
8.5 |
0.0% /
5.3% |
52.4% /
29.8% |
28.5 /
29.0 |
| 10 |
DEN |
23 – 25 L |
-3.0 |
63.3% /
45.7% |
3.3% /
13.0% |
6.9% /
5.0% |
9.8 /
5.1 |
42.9% /
30.8% |
4.8% /
20.5% |
3.8 /
2.7 |
51 /
85 |
57.1% /
35.5% |
54.9% /
38.8% |
46.9% /
3.2% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
3.9% /
0.0% |
41.2% /
45.9% |
28.9 /
37.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
20 – 21 L |
4.1 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
8.8% /
7.1% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
68.8% /
45.2% |
9.4% /
19.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
66 /
59 |
52.9% /
50.0% |
54.5% /
47.5% |
12.9% /
54.7% |
5.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
48.5% /
52.5% |
26.3 /
28.9 |
| 2 |
SF |
46 – 27 W |
7.8 |
47.5% /
39.5% |
2.5% /
5.3% |
2.6% /
5.6% |
8.8 /
6.2 |
40.5% /
34.6% |
24.3% /
26.9% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
77 /
64 |
43.5% /
41.7% |
44.2% /
37.5% |
55.6% /
46.7% |
6.9 /
4.7 |
3.9% /
1.6% |
48.1% /
40.6% |
31.8 /
33.9 |
| 3 |
MIN |
10 – 22 L |
-0.7 |
34.1% /
43.3% |
18.2% /
6.7% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
4.6 /
5.1 |
46.4% /
30.8% |
7.1% /
34.6% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
72 /
56 |
41.5% /
45.0% |
38.9% /
37.5% |
41.5% /
6.6% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.9% /
46.4% |
24.0 /
29.9 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
33 – 48 L |
-11.4 |
53.1% /
57.5% |
2.0% /
7.5% |
4.2% /
2.7% |
6.7 /
12.0 |
46.7% /
37.0% |
26.7% /
33.3% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
67 |
53.2% /
50.0% |
51.6% /
49.3% |
36.0% /
63.0% |
5.9 /
8.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.4% /
40.3% |
23.9 /
20.9 |
| 5 |
TB |
14 – 17 L |
-1.6 |
64.3% /
53.1% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
68.0% /
36.8% |
12.0% /
28.9% |
5.4 /
3.0 |
53 /
70 |
72.7% /
47.2% |
66.0% /
44.3% |
52.9% /
31.3% |
7.8 /
4.5 |
3.8% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
54.3% |
23.9 /
31.1 |
| 6 |
@NO |
38 – 41 L |
-11.3 |
49.0% /
61.2% |
4.1% /
2.0% |
2.1% /
2.1% |
6.2 /
9.4 |
50.0% /
47.6% |
10.7% /
19.0% |
3.7 /
3.0 |
77 /
70 |
54.0% /
58.5% |
49.4% /
57.1% |
18.9% /
51.4% |
5.3 /
7.5 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
30.0% |
32.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
ARI |
30 – 20 W |
15.7 |
42.9% /
51.9% |
3.6% /
14.8% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.4 /
5.9 |
52.8% /
50.0% |
22.2% /
40.0% |
3.9 /
2.4 |
64 /
64 |
50.0% /
54.9% |
48.4% /
51.6% |
48.1% /
12.4% |
5.5 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
56.3% /
15.6% |
34.1 /
24.0 |
| 9 |
@LA |
13 – 10 W |
6.2 |
43.2% /
44.0% |
13.5% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
23.1% /
35.3% |
34.6% /
17.6% |
2.3 /
3.5 |
63 /
67 |
34.8% /
44.0% |
34.9% /
41.8% |
28.2% /
32.7% |
3.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.3% /
25.4% |
28.5 /
23.4 |
| 10 |
KC |
17 – 20 L |
7.9 |
47.5% /
36.6% |
5.0% /
7.3% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
6.1 /
4.0 |
36.7% /
45.0% |
26.7% /
10.0% |
3.3 /
4.6 |
70 /
61 |
43.4% /
43.8% |
42.9% /
39.3% |
29.8% /
24.2% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
32.8% |
20.3 /
30.6 |
New Orleans Saints
@ 
Carolina Panthers