Game Analysis
Kansas City (-8.5) vs CLEVELAND
The Browns finally fired Hue Jackson after a 3-36-1 record over the past three seasons including 3-14-1 in games decided by one score. Last season, Cleveland finished with 41 turnovers, tied for the second-most over the past decade, but their luck turned around this year and they lead the league with a +10 turnover margin. There have been 96 teams to benefit from a +10 turnover margin through the first 8 weeks since 1970 and the Browns are the only one of them with a record below .500. Needless to say, Jackson deserved to be the first coach fired this season and now defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will take over as the interim head coach.
Cleveland also parted ways with offensive coordinator Todd Haley and Freddie Kitchens will serve as the new OC. Kitchens has been a running backs or tight end coach most of his career and I expect him to focus on those two positions in his play-calling, which could prove fruitful versus Kansas City’s defense. Kitchens called plays for Cleveland’s fourth preseason game when they put up 35 points while using more runs than passes and tight end Devon Cajuste was the leading receiver. The Browns ground game ranks 23rd but should improve going forward without Carlos Hyde, who was traded. Nick Chubb is now going to carry a big load and his good play led to the departure of Hyde. Chubb leads the NFL with 5.21 yards per rush after contact and he should put up big numbers this week against a Chiefs defense on pace to have the worst rush defense since 2000. Kansas City’s defense is surrendering 9.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends without Eric Berry and David Njoku, whose 47 targets rank 5th-most among tight ends, should play an impactful role on Sunday under the new offensive coordinator.
Kansas City DE Dee Ford recorded 3 sacks on 8 pressures and 2 forced fumbles last week and certainly hasn’t been slowed down even with his edge rushing partner Justin Houston out of the lineup. Ford’s 18.8% pressure rate leads all edge rushers and Houston will likely be back on the field this week with a favorable matchup against Cleveland’s poor tackles. Chris Hubbard has allowed the 2nd-most sacks this season (6) and Desmond Harrison has allowed the 2nd-most pressures (32). However, Chris Jones and Allen Bailey, who each have 4 sacks, tied for 6th-most among interior linemen, will have a tougher time generating pressure on the inside versus Kevin Zeitler and Joel Bitonio, who rank 1st and 2nd respectively in pass blocking efficiency among guards.
The Chiefs have the league’s best offense according to our metrics and they should have no problem moving the ball against the Browns 28th-rated defense. Our model sees no value in the side or total.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.9
41.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
58.5%
48.7%
-
Sack Rate
3.6%
7.9%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
23.3%
21.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
51.3%
46.3%
-
NYPP
9.2
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.9
23.9
-
RB YPR
4.4
5.1
-
Stuff Rate
17.7%
18.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.1%
58.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.4%
44.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
5.2
Game
-
All Snaps
60.8
65.5
-
Early Down Succ
54.5%
53.5%
-
Succ Rate
53.5%
53.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.8%
47.2%
-
Yards Per Play
7.1
6.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.2%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
28.0
-
Run Ratio
42.8%
36.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.0
24.7
-
Game Control
8.0
-8.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.0
40.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.1%
52.8%
-
Sack Rate
10.5%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
4.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.0%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.7%
34.4%
-
NYPP
5.7
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.1
31.0
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
30.0%
26.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.7%
47.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
56.1%
54.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
68.1
71.3
-
Early Down Succ
41.4%
52.7%
-
Succ Rate
40.2%
51.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.3%
40.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.8
28.8
-
Run Ratio
41.2%
44.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.5
28.5
-
Game Control
-4.0
4.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
38 – 28 W |
9.6 |
46.4% /
55.8% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
9.1 /
8.0 |
59.3% /
59.1% |
25.9% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
55 /
74 |
55.6% /
61.3% |
52.7% /
56.8% |
66.0% /
45.1% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.1% /
29.7% |
29.1 /
20.1 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
42 – 37 W |
9.7 |
69.0% /
50.8% |
3.4% /
1.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.1 /
7.2 |
44.4% /
38.5% |
14.8% /
23.1% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
56 /
74 |
63.8% /
51.7% |
57.1% /
48.6% |
56.1% /
35.2% |
8.1 /
6.4 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
17.6% |
30.3 /
21.8 |
| 3 |
SF |
38 – 27 W |
13.8 |
55.0% /
44.1% |
5.0% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
51.7% |
16.7% /
24.1% |
2.6 /
6.1 |
70 /
63 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
47.6% |
28.2% /
42.9% |
5.5 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
46.0% |
26.8 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
27 – 23 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% /
32.4% |
2.2% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
6.1 |
66.7% /
72.7% |
14.8% /
18.2% |
5.3 /
7.2 |
73 /
59 |
59.3% /
53.3% |
56.2% /
47.5% |
48.8% /
59.7% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
30.6 /
24.2 |
| 5 |
JAC |
30 – 14 W |
14.4 |
87.0% /
73.7% |
4.3% /
13.2% |
9.1% /
12.1% |
13.0 /
10.6 |
28.1% /
70.6% |
25.0% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
5.9 |
55 /
55 |
45.5% /
48.4% |
52.7% /
72.7% |
49.3% /
49.8% |
7.7 /
9.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
58.2% /
30.9% |
21.3 /
28.3 |
| 6 |
@NE |
40 – 43 L |
-5.3 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.8 |
70.6% /
64.1% |
17.6% /
15.4% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
53 /
76 |
59.5% /
60.0% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
55.4% /
44.9% |
8.4 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
32.1% /
51.3% |
39.9 /
30.6 |
| 7 |
CIN |
45 – 10 W |
19.4 |
61.0% /
42.9% |
4.9% /
5.7% |
2.6% /
3.0% |
8.6 /
5.0 |
51.7% /
47.4% |
10.3% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
3.4 |
70 /
54 |
54.4% /
47.6% |
57.1% /
44.4% |
52.5% /
42.3% |
7.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
35.2% |
24.0 /
26.6 |
| 8 |
DEN |
30 – 23 W |
4.5 |
50.0% /
41.0% |
5.6% /
12.8% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
8.1 /
5.7 |
33.3% /
66.7% |
16.7% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
6.3 |
54 /
69 |
46.5% /
55.4% |
44.4% /
52.2% |
42.4% /
57.7% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
38.0 /
23.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
21 – 21 T |
-6.0 |
21.7% /
40.0% |
15.2% /
8.9% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
3.3 /
7.0 |
39.5% /
44.4% |
34.2% /
19.4% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
84 /
81 |
30.8% /
42.2% |
29.8% /
42.0% |
64.5% /
48.4% |
3.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
45.2% /
44.4% |
34.4 /
23.9 |
| 2 |
@NO |
18 – 21 L |
2.8 |
48.5% /
63.2% |
9.1% /
7.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.6 |
33.3% /
37.5% |
14.8% /
25.0% |
3.4 /
2.6 |
60 /
62 |
43.5% /
60.4% |
41.7% /
53.2% |
43.4% /
30.8% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
45.0% /
38.7% |
28.4 /
35.0 |
| 3 |
NYJ |
21 – 17 W |
-5.4 |
36.6% /
36.4% |
9.8% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
43.3% |
3.9 /
3.6 |
76 /
63 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
39.5% /
42.9% |
32.3% /
22.4% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.1% /
47.6% |
33.3 /
23.2 |
| 4 |
@OAK |
42 – 45 L |
2.1 |
37.2% /
53.3% |
4.7% /
5.0% |
4.9% /
3.5% |
6.5 /
7.1 |
43.8% /
33.3% |
21.9% /
36.7% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
75 /
90 |
42.1% /
52.1% |
40.0% /
46.7% |
57.8% /
44.2% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
42.7% /
33.3% |
26.1 /
34.9 |
| 5 |
BAL |
12 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.1% /
80.6% |
17.2% /
6.5% |
4.2% /
3.4% |
10.5 /
9.5 |
46.4% /
48.0% |
35.7% /
32.0% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
57 /
56 |
45.5% /
47.8% |
54.4% /
66.1% |
57.7% /
35.1% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
49.1% /
44.6% |
19.7 /
31.4 |
| 6 |
LAC |
14 – 38 L |
-14.7 |
39.2% /
45.5% |
9.8% /
4.5% |
4.3% /
4.8% |
4.2 /
9.2 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
33.3% /
13.2% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
72 /
60 |
41.5% /
68.8% |
40.3% /
56.7% |
50.2% /
69.2% |
4.4 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.2% /
63.3% |
34.2 /
30.5 |
| 7 |
@TB |
23 – 26 L |
-6.5 |
38.5% /
51.8% |
12.8% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
4.8 /
6.1 |
39.1% /
42.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
5.2 /
3.5 |
62 /
89 |
45.7% /
49.3% |
38.7% /
48.3% |
41.0% /
35.4% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
1.6% /
2.2% |
37.1% /
37.1% |
37.6 /
21.3 |
| 8 |
@PIT |
18 – 33 L |
-5.4 |
36.8% /
51.4% |
5.3% /
2.7% |
2.8% /
2.8% |
4.3 /
6.8 |
38.1% /
59.4% |
38.1% /
12.5% |
3.5 /
5.3 |
59 /
69 |
40.0% /
58.5% |
37.3% /
55.1% |
55.3% /
39.8% |
4.0 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.6% /
46.4% |
30.2 /
27.8 |
Kansas City Chiefs
@ 
Cleveland Browns