Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Blake Bortles is the practice squad superstar throwing for 337 yards and 3 TDs last week in a blowout…loss to the Titans last Thursday night. While B-squared’s numbers are a facade, what is for real is the Jaguars defense which is holding opponents to under 44% success rate offensively and a 7th ranked yards per play allowed of 5.2 yards. On the other side of the ball the Chiefs new QB1, Nick Foles, looked great in spot duty last week, going 16-22 for 233 and 2 TDs. With Alex Smith in concussion protocol, the Chiefs may find that Foles is an upgrade at the QB position as he is someone who takes more sacks, but also more deep shots. Foles grades out slightly below Smith because of his terrible time with the Rams (in which he averaged 5.6 NYPP), although in the right system he has produced numbers that do far exceed Captain Checkdowns (6.9 NYPP for Foles vs. 6.2 NYPP for Smith). The Chiefs are 5-2 and the Jags are 2-5 and a big part is not the peripheral stats each team has put up, but the turnover differential as the Chiefs are +9 and Jags -8.

In what was initially a Jags Best Bet at +9.5 against Alex Smith, but with the Chiefs getting a possible upgrade in QB with Nick Foles and the line shrinking to +7.5 the advanced stats model now makes the Jaguars (+7.5) a Strong Opinion and UNDER (44) a Strong Opinion.

Turnover differential is a great descriptive stat, but a poor predictive stat.

ATS Win % vs Turnover Differential through Week 8 pic.twitter.com/iKPO5kSYWq

— EVBettor (@EVBettor) November 3, 2016

Team Stats
Game Log

Jaguars
Chiefs

JAC

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 43.9 37.3
Succ Pass Plays 43.7% 44.0%
Sack Rate 5.8% 4.7%
Int Rate 3.2% 1.1%
Deep Pass Rate 16.4% 13.7%
Big Pass Yards 35.7% 40.5%
NYPP 5.9 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 19.6 30.9
RB YPR 3.5 3.9
Stuff Rate 26.9% 18.6%
Succ Rush Plays 42.3% 45.9%
Big Rush Yards 38.7% 35.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.0

Game

All Snaps 63.4 68.1
Early Down Succ 46.7% 44.1%
Succ Rate 43.1% 43.9%
Big Yards Rate 37.3% 39.2%
Yards Per Play 5.2 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.5 29.1
Run Ratio 30.9% 45.6%
Starting Field Pos 26.6 30.7
Game Control -7.6 7.6

Points 19.9 28.0

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.0 38.6
Succ Pass Plays 48.9% 48.2%
Sack Rate 5.7% 5.4%
Int Rate 0.6% 4.0%
Deep Pass Rate 15.8% 16.5%
Big Pass Yards 34.7% 36.0%
NYPP 6.8 6.5

Rush

Rush Plays 26.6 25.7
RB YPR 4.3 4.3
Stuff Rate 22.6% 18.1%
Succ Rush Plays 37.9% 50.9%
Big Rush Yards 51.9% 31.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.5

Game

All Snaps 65.6 64.3
Early Down Succ 46.4% 51.3%
Succ Rate 43.8% 48.6%
Big Yards Rate 39.9% 35.6%
Yards Per Play 5.5 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.5 27.7
Run Ratio 41.1% 39.8%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 28.4
Game Control -1.6 1.6

Points 23.7 19.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	23 – 27 L	-3.3	42.9% / 44.1%	7.1% / 2.9%	2.6% / 0.0%	7.1 / 5.9	40.7% / 42.3%	33.3% / 19.2%	1.8 / 3.7	69 / 60	45.8% / 41.9%	42.0% / 43.3%	49.0% / 37.6%	5.1 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	39.1% / 43.3%	30.6 / 23.5
2	@SD	14 – 38 L	-21.2	42.3% / 46.4%	3.8% / 10.7%	4.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 7.4	63.6% / 44.4%	18.2% / 19.4%	6.3 / 4.2	63 / 64	52.0% / 45.8%	46.0% / 45.3%	42.8% / 60.2%	6.2 / 5.6	1.6% / 1.6%	17.5% / 56.3%	22.0 / 40.3
3	BAL	17 – 19 L	-4.2	47.6% / 47.6%	9.5% / 4.8%	7.9% / 5.0%	4.0 / 4.7	33.3% / 39.1%	33.3% / 4.3%	2.3 / 3.7	63 / 65	44.7% / 51.0%	42.9% / 44.6%	9.3% / 20.8%	3.4 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.5%	33.3% / 35.4%	36.4 / 28.4
4	IND	30 – 27 W	7.8	36.1% / 34.0%	8.3% / 12.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.4 / 4.0	55.2% / 64.0%	20.7% / 12.0%	4.7 / 3.8	65 / 72	47.2% / 42.6%	44.6% / 44.4%	28.1% / 36.6%	5.1 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	44.6% / 34.7%	29.7 / 25.0
6	@CHI	17 – 16 W	-5.3	51.4% / 40.0%	5.7% / 2.0%	3.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 5.9	28.6% / 44.4%	28.6% / 29.6%	2.6 / 3.4	56 / 77	50.0% / 42.4%	42.9% / 41.6%	37.1% / 20.1%	5.7 / 5.1	1.8% / 0.0%	37.5% / 35.1%	21.9 / 26.3
7	OAK	16 – 33 L	-9.5	31.8% / 35.1%	2.3% / 0.0%	4.7% / 0.0%	5.4 / 5.4	29.4% / 50.0%	17.6% / 22.2%	6.2 / 4.1	61 / 73	32.6% / 44.0%	31.1% / 42.5%	59.4% / 42.8%	5.7 / 4.7	1.6% / 0.0%	27.9% / 49.3%	21.7 / 40.2
8	@TEN	22 – 36 L	-17.5	53.6% / 60.9%	3.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 12.2	45.5% / 37.2%	36.4% / 23.3%	4.4 / 5.0	67 / 66	54.7% / 41.2%	52.2% / 45.5%	35.1% / 56.1%	5.5 / 7.5	1.5% / 0.0%	16.4% / 65.2%	24.2 / 31.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2016 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SD	33 – 27 W	-11.5	52.9% / 56.8%	5.9% / 2.7%	2.1% / 0.0%	6.5 / 6.3	57.9% / 57.6%	21.1% / 15.2%	4.4 / 4.7	70 / 70	57.4% / 62.3%	54.3% / 57.1%	44.3% / 38.8%	5.9 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	27.1% / 47.1%	28.4 / 30.4
2	@HOU	12 – 19 L	-6.8	34.1% / 40.0%	9.8% / 5.7%	0.0% / 6.1%	4.2 / 7.3	36.8% / 32.4%	31.6% / 18.9%	6.3 / 2.7	60 / 72	39.1% / 41.2%	35.0% / 36.1%	37.1% / 38.2%	4.9 / 4.9	5.0% / 0.0%	31.7% / 51.4%	29.5 / 35.9
3	NYJ	24 – 3 W	10.3	48.6% / 34.1%	5.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 13.6%	6.3 / 4.3	30.0% / 50.0%	33.3% / 13.6%	2.5 / 5.3	65 / 66	43.2% / 36.0%	40.0% / 39.4%	40.2% / 39.0%	4.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 3.0%	46.2% / 33.3%	27.3 / 30.1
4	@PIT	14 – 43 L	-25.5	44.4% / 55.2%	7.4% / 6.9%	2.0% / 0.0%	5.0 / 9.9	22.2% / 40.7%	22.2% / 22.2%	4.8 / 5.6	72 / 56	34.6% / 50.0%	38.9% / 48.2%	18.5% / 59.4%	5.0 / 7.8	1.4% / 0.0%	25.0% / 48.2%	24.5 / 31.4
6	@OAK	26 – 10 W	5.9	62.5% / 51.4%	4.2% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	9.3 / 6.3	52.4% / 52.9%	11.9% / 29.4%	4.4 / 3.8	66 / 52	61.2% / 57.5%	56.1% / 51.9%	45.8% / 15.4%	6.2 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.9%	63.6% / 32.7%	37.4 / 25.5
7	NO	27 – 21 W	7.9	54.2% / 63.3%	0.0% / 2.0%	0.0% / 2.1%	8.9 / 7.3	30.0% / 72.7%	16.7% / 9.1%	3.8 / 4.7	54 / 71	46.3% / 66.7%	40.7% / 66.2%	44.8% / 25.9%	6.1 / 6.5	0.0% / 1.4%	55.6% / 31.0%	22.7 / 22.6
8	@IND	30 – 14 W	8.3	45.5% / 36.6%	6.8% / 14.6%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.6 / 4.2	35.7% / 50.0%	21.4% / 18.2%	3.2 / 4.8	72 / 63	42.6% / 45.7%	41.7% / 41.3%	48.7% / 32.7%	5.9 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.6%	38.9% / 34.9%	34.8 / 22.8

Jacksonville Jaguars @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Nov 6

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis