Game Analysis
Lean – Baltimore (+2 ½) over OAKLAND
My quarterback projection model expects EJ Manuel to be about 4 points worse than Derek Carr. This may force the Raiders to rely on a rushing attack that hasn’t been very effective this season. Oakland’s rushing offense ranks 25th in my numbers, but they do get a 26th ranked Baltimore rush defense in this one. I expect Manuel to look for scrambling opportunities, which he’s had success with in his career – my metrics have him ranked as the 16th best running quarterback since 2000 (min 75 rushes), between Tim Tebow and Robert Griffin.
In another matchup of weakness vs. weakness, the Ravens’ 30th ranked passing offense will go against an Oakland pass defense ranked 28th, according to my metrics. I expect Joe Flacco to have a bounce-back game after gaining less than 4 yppp each of the last two weeks while his team scored just 7 points and 9 points. In fact, teams that have been that bad offensively in consecutive games tend to be good value bets, as teams that scored fewer than 10 points in each of the last two weeks, and are coming off a loss, are 141-100-5 ATS (58.5%) since 1980 and an even better 30-6-1 ATS since 2009. Our model says the fair line here is Oakland by 2 ½ points with Manuel at quarterback for the Raiders and I’ll lean with Baltimore based on the bounce-back situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.5
36.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
38.7%
39.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
5.1%
6.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
10.7%
21.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
16.2%
39.2%
-
NYPP
4.4
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.8
31.0
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
28.2%
20.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.1%
38.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
58.7%
47.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.3
67.3
-
Early Down Succ
46.5%
41.1%
-
Succ Rate
43.5%
38.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.2%
43.8%
-
Yards Per Play
4.3
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
27.1
-
Run Ratio
46.7%
45.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.7
30.7
-
Game Control
-3.0
3.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.8
33.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.5%
47.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.8%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.2%
42.8%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.5
29.0
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
29.5%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.4%
42.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.6%
38.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
55.3
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
48.3%
46.2%
-
Succ Rate
43.6%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.1%
42.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.2
31.1
-
Run Ratio
38.2%
46.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.3
26.8
-
Game Control
-0.6
0.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CIN |
20 – 0 W |
11.0 |
27.8% /
30.6% |
5.6% /
13.9% |
5.9% /
12.9% |
6.2 /
4.0 |
45.2% /
36.4% |
19.0% /
22.7% |
3.7 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
39.1% /
34.1% |
40.0% /
32.8% |
32.1% /
45.7% |
4.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
70.0% /
37.9% |
32.2 /
30.8 |
| 2 |
CLE |
24 – 10 W |
9.4 |
50.0% /
31.1% |
5.6% /
6.7% |
2.9% /
9.5% |
5.6 /
6.5 |
36.4% /
38.1% |
27.3% /
23.8% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
69 /
66 |
47.3% /
36.5% |
43.5% /
33.3% |
39.9% /
67.1% |
4.9 /
5.8 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
47.8% /
31.8% |
33.9 /
22.3 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
7 – 44 L |
-23.9 |
24.1% /
54.5% |
6.9% /
0.0% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
7.4 |
56.0% /
31.6% |
20.0% /
10.5% |
5.4 /
4.4 |
54 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.9% /
42.3% |
39.2% /
35.8% |
3.4 /
5.8 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
53.5% |
24.1 /
38.5 |
| 4 |
PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-8.6 |
52.9% /
41.9% |
7.8% /
3.2% |
4.3% /
3.3% |
4.0 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
46.5% |
46.7% /
23.3% |
5.5 /
4.0 |
66 /
74 |
56.9% /
45.6% |
51.5% /
44.6% |
25.3% /
26.4% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
22.7% /
58.1% |
28.5 /
31.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@TEN |
26 – 16 W |
4.4 |
55.9% /
50.0% |
5.9% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
6.1 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
16.7% /
28.6% |
3.7 /
4.5 |
64 /
63 |
57.1% /
46.9% |
53.1% /
47.6% |
26.7% /
33.1% |
5.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
33.3% |
29.3 /
22.4 |
| 2 |
NYJ |
45 – 20 W |
11.6 |
64.3% /
44.8% |
0.0% /
13.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.0 |
40.7% /
61.5% |
33.3% /
19.2% |
6.7 /
4.9 |
55 /
55 |
48.8% /
53.7% |
52.7% /
52.7% |
56.1% /
43.0% |
7.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
49.1% /
47.3% |
35.7 /
27.1 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
10 – 27 L |
-11.9 |
37.1% /
61.3% |
11.4% /
3.2% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
2.7 /
11.5 |
21.4% /
35.3% |
21.4% /
17.6% |
2.4 /
3.4 |
49 /
65 |
42.4% /
48.0% |
32.7% /
47.7% |
24.8% /
53.2% |
2.6 /
7.3 |
2.0% /
3.1% |
28.6% /
52.3% |
31.7 /
28.7 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
10 – 16 L |
-6.7 |
36.8% /
33.3% |
7.9% /
13.3% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
5.2 |
33.3% /
31.4% |
46.7% /
22.9% |
1.6 /
4.2 |
53 /
65 |
44.7% /
36.4% |
35.8% /
32.3% |
52.8% /
39.5% |
4.8 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.3% /
53.8% |
24.7 /
28.8 |
Baltimore Ravens
@ 
Oakland Raiders