Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Baltimore Team Total Under (26.5 -115) to -120 or Under 24.5 at Even or better

Alternate play is Houston (+6) at +5 or more

Lean – HOUSTON (+6) over Baltimore

• Baltimore running back Derrick Henry gained 162 rush yards on 24 carries last week and the Ravens have a 45% rush success rate (2nd), but I expect the ground game to be limited as Houston’s defense is allowing only -0.15 EPA/rush (7th).
• The other major aspect of Baltimore’s offense is the TEs, who have a 30% target share (5th-highest). The Texans should also have answers to contain TE Mark Andrews and TE Isaiah Likely as Houston’s defense is allowing a league-low 39% success rate to opposing tight ends.
• Ravens RB Justice Hill is averaging 1.64 yards per route run (2nd) but he will be sidelined with a concussion.
• Baltimore’s tackles are at fault for 62% of the allowed pressures by the offensive line (30th) and they will struggle across from edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, who have combined for 22.5 sacks.
• The Ravens’ defense was allowing 0.17 EPA/dropback in the first half of the season (29th) but are conceding 0.02 EPA/dropback (9th) since week 10 after benching safeties Marcus Williams and Eddie Jackson for Ar’Darius Washington and Kyle Hamilton.
• CJ Stroud is without starting wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell while operating behind a struggling offensive line. Baltimore edge defender Kyle Van Noy ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc across from right tackle Blake Fisher, who is surrendering a 9.2% pressure rate.
• Houston RG Shaq Mason is out, and backup Kendrick Green will not be able to handle DT Nnamdi Madubuike, who is one of 8 interior defenders with 50+ pressures.
• Baltimore is coming off consecutive good offensive performances in which they scored 35 points and 34 points. However, the Ravens apply to a 30-86-2 ATS situation that is based on winning consecutive games in which they scored 31 points or more in each. Baltimore also applies to another 51-123-3 ATS letdown situation and the record is 4-19-1 ATS when those angles intersect.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 5.4 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points, but the situation strongly favors the Texans, whose defense matches up well in this game.

Strong Opinion on the Baltimore Team Total Under 26.5 points  to -120 or Under 24.5 Even or better. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is Houston at +5 or more.