Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – DALLAS (+2) over Los Angeles Chargers
Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to play in this game and he’ll provide a boost for the Dallas offense that averaged just 3.8 yppl and 8 points per game with him out of the lineup the last 2 weeks. Even without Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys rushing attack should excel against a Chargers defense surrendering 4.9 yards per rush (31st).
On the other side of the ball, Dallas will be without linebacker Sean Lee again. Throughout his career, the Dallas defense is nearly a point per game worse when Lee is not on the field. However, I expect the Dallas defense to be motivated after being embarrassed last Sunday night and DeMarcus Lawrence, tied for the league lead in sacks, has an easy matchup against a banged up Joe Barksdale.
The look-ahead line for this game was Dallas -4 and we have seen massive movement based on last week’s disparate performances. The Chargers beat the Bills by 30 but were actually outgained in yards per play for the game and certainly benefitted from some terrible Nathan Peterman interceptions. Dallas definitely looked poor against the Eagles but I expect the return of Tyron Smith to improve their recent offensive woes and often the worse a team has looked in recent weeks the better bets they are. In fact, teams that scored less than 10 points for the second consecutive game the previous week are 37-8-1 ATS the last 10 seasons (31-4-1 ATS if they have at least one win on the season). If the opponent has a win percentage of .500 or less the record is 25-1 ATS, which applies here (the Chargers are 4-6). Dallas actually has a better record than the Chargers and my ratings favor the Cowboys by 1 ½ points with Lee out. There are also a few other good contrary situations that favor the Cowboys and the combination of a good situation and line value is enough for me to consider Dallas a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
38.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.1%
42.9%
-
Sack Rate
3.4%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
3.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.1%
17.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.4%
31.6%
-
NYPP
6.6
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.5
28.6
-
RB YPR
3.9
5.0
-
Stuff Rate
32.2%
24.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.1%
44.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
57.7%
49.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
62.5
66.8
-
Early Down Succ
43.5%
45.5%
-
Succ Rate
41.2%
43.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.6%
39.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
29.1
-
Run Ratio
40.1%
42.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.1
27.7
-
Game Control
0.4
-0.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.2
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.1%
48.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.3%
15.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.3%
37.4%
-
NYPP
6.2
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.9
25.7
-
RB YPR
4.1
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
22.0%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
45.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.4%
49.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
64.1
63.5
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
49.9%
-
Succ Rate
48.3%
47.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.3%
43.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.6
27.9
-
Run Ratio
46.8%
40.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.7
25.4
-
Game Control
1.7
-1.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
21 – 24 L |
-6.6 |
47.1% /
50.0% |
2.9% /
12.5% |
3.0% /
3.6% |
5.4 /
5.7 |
27.3% /
40.5% |
31.8% /
18.9% |
2.9 /
3.8 |
56 /
69 |
42.9% /
44.2% |
39.3% /
44.9% |
27.7% /
47.8% |
4.4 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
39.3% /
53.6% |
31.6 /
31.8 |
| 2 |
MIA |
17 – 19 L |
2.0 |
62.5% /
44.4% |
2.5% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.1 /
6.3 |
28.6% /
36.4% |
50.0% /
30.3% |
3.1 /
3.4 |
54 /
69 |
58.7% /
43.4% |
53.7% /
40.6% |
28.6% /
38.9% |
6.8 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
25.9% /
47.8% |
24.9 /
26.4 |
| 3 |
KC |
10 – 24 L |
-8.0 |
35.7% /
34.6% |
4.8% /
19.2% |
7.5% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
4.7 |
34.6% /
56.0% |
34.6% /
20.0% |
4.0 /
7.6 |
68 /
51 |
34.5% /
50.0% |
35.3% /
45.1% |
39.1% /
55.0% |
4.9 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.2% /
49.0% |
22.8 /
30.5 |
| 4 |
PHI |
24 – 26 L |
-6.2 |
42.5% /
46.9% |
5.0% /
3.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.6 /
7.5 |
38.5% /
47.7% |
46.2% /
20.5% |
4.5 /
4.9 |
53 /
76 |
39.5% /
47.3% |
41.5% /
47.4% |
68.3% /
56.1% |
7.5 /
6.0 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
24.5% /
57.9% |
22.2 /
22.1 |
| 5 |
@NYG |
27 – 22 W |
-2.4 |
36.4% /
34.1% |
0.0% /
12.2% |
2.3% /
2.8% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
31.3% /
72.0% |
21.9% /
12.0% |
3.9 /
6.1 |
76 /
66 |
34.0% /
54.0% |
34.2% /
48.5% |
36.2% /
46.3% |
5.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
42.1% /
37.9% |
29.0 /
28.2 |
| 6 |
@OAK |
17 – 16 W |
-3.2 |
45.9% /
51.6% |
2.7% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
7.1 /
5.3 |
21.9% /
50.0% |
18.8% /
31.8% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
69 /
53 |
34.0% /
52.5% |
34.8% /
50.9% |
33.6% /
35.4% |
5.0 /
5.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
46.4% /
41.5% |
24.7 /
31.7 |
| 7 |
DEN |
21 – 0 W |
11.1 |
34.5% /
35.0% |
10.3% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
5.6 /
4.6 |
19.2% /
21.1% |
42.3% /
21.1% |
3.1 /
3.6 |
55 /
59 |
28.6% /
32.6% |
27.3% /
30.5% |
44.6% /
13.5% |
4.4 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
47.3% /
32.2% |
29.8 /
23.2 |
| 8 |
@NE |
13 – 21 L |
-4.4 |
46.7% /
50.0% |
3.3% /
6.0% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
6.3 |
66.7% /
43.8% |
19.0% /
28.1% |
7.5 /
3.0 |
51 /
82 |
60.0% /
46.8% |
54.9% /
47.6% |
38.7% /
21.3% |
6.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.2% /
39.0% |
20.5 /
30.5 |
| 10 |
@JAC |
17 – 20 L |
0.3 |
43.2% /
37.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
2.7% /
3.9% |
6.4 /
4.9 |
48.4% /
29.6% |
25.8% /
29.6% |
2.8 /
5.0 |
68 /
81 |
54.9% /
36.1% |
45.6% /
34.6% |
38.4% /
34.7% |
4.8 /
4.9 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
33.3% |
21.1 /
30.7 |
| 11 |
BUF |
54 – 24 W |
21.2 |
56.8% /
45.0% |
2.7% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
12.8% |
7.6 /
5.5 |
34.2% /
50.0% |
31.6% /
36.4% |
3.9 /
7.9 |
75 /
62 |
48.2% /
47.8% |
45.3% /
46.8% |
41.2% /
49.1% |
5.8 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
50.7% /
35.5% |
44.0 /
21.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYG |
19 – 3 W |
9.1 |
48.7% /
48.8% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
4.8 |
54.8% /
23.1% |
19.4% /
7.7% |
4.2 /
2.8 |
70 /
54 |
50.9% /
46.2% |
51.4% /
42.6% |
37.0% /
27.8% |
5.6 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.3% /
24.1% |
29.4 /
16.0 |
| 2 |
@DEN |
17 – 42 L |
-11.9 |
42.3% /
64.7% |
3.8% /
5.9% |
4.0% /
3.1% |
4.4 /
5.9 |
28.6% /
52.5% |
42.9% /
17.5% |
2.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
74 |
44.7% /
59.6% |
39.4% /
58.1% |
14.6% /
30.7% |
4.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
21.2% /
54.1% |
37.6 /
26.9 |
| 3 |
@ARI |
28 – 17 W |
-0.5 |
42.1% /
38.9% |
5.3% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
5.2 |
33.3% /
33.3% |
33.3% /
33.3% |
3.7 /
2.3 |
46 /
75 |
42.9% /
35.7% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
62.8% /
51.5% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
58.7% /
28.0% |
29.4 /
21.6 |
| 4 |
LA |
30 – 35 L |
2.3 |
35.1% /
48.6% |
5.4% /
2.7% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.6 |
55.6% /
65.6% |
14.8% /
21.9% |
7.0 /
5.3 |
64 /
69 |
41.7% /
63.0% |
43.8% /
56.5% |
52.3% /
51.6% |
6.9 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
46.4% |
22.4 /
34.8 |
| 5 |
GB |
31 – 35 L |
4.2 |
59.5% /
51.5% |
2.7% /
12.1% |
2.8% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.5 |
60.0% /
64.0% |
14.3% /
12.0% |
4.7 /
6.4 |
72 /
58 |
57.9% /
58.0% |
59.7% /
56.9% |
28.7% /
43.3% |
5.7 /
5.9 |
2.8% /
1.7% |
48.6% /
43.1% |
25.7 /
22.3 |
| 7 |
@SF |
40 – 10 W |
20.1 |
51.9% /
39.5% |
0.0% /
11.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
4.3 |
68.9% /
59.1% |
11.1% /
27.3% |
5.9 /
4.7 |
72 /
65 |
66.7% /
48.0% |
62.5% /
46.2% |
57.0% /
40.7% |
7.0 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
4.6% |
62.5% /
33.8% |
34.1 /
23.0 |
| 8 |
@WAS |
33 – 19 W |
2.5 |
37.5% /
39.5% |
8.3% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.8 /
5.5 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
20.5% /
26.7% |
4.3 /
3.3 |
63 /
58 |
57.4% /
40.9% |
52.4% /
39.7% |
24.1% /
50.5% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
1.6% /
3.4% |
61.9% /
25.9% |
39.1 /
29.7 |
| 9 |
KC |
28 – 17 W |
4.3 |
52.9% /
50.0% |
2.9% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
7.2 /
7.1 |
64.5% /
42.1% |
12.9% /
31.6% |
4.2 /
3.6 |
65 /
55 |
58.5% /
51.2% |
58.5% /
47.3% |
42.4% /
40.6% |
5.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.7% /
34.5% |
26.8 /
22.9 |
| 10 |
@ATL |
7 – 27 L |
-4.8 |
40.5% /
63.3% |
21.6% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
3.4 /
6.8 |
45.5% /
29.4% |
22.7% /
44.1% |
4.9 /
3.9 |
59 /
64 |
42.6% /
44.9% |
42.4% /
45.3% |
55.4% /
46.7% |
3.9 /
5.3 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
53.1% |
33.3 /
29.9 |
| 11 |
PHI |
9 – 37 L |
-8.3 |
30.6% /
44.4% |
11.1% /
0.0% |
9.4% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
6.2 |
42.9% /
44.4% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
4.0 /
6.1 |
64 /
63 |
42.6% /
51.2% |
35.9% /
44.4% |
28.8% /
52.1% |
3.5 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
57.1% |
28.9 /
27.3 |
Los Angeles Chargers
@ 
Dallas Cowboys