Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Under (46.5) – ARIZONA vs Dallas

Lean – ARIZONA (+3)

It took overtime for the Cardinals to beat the Colts last week but the game should not have been that close by on metrics as Arizona outgained Indianapolis by more than 2 yards per play and were unlucky not to score a touchdown on any of their Redzone trips.

Dallas was beaten badly on both sides of the ball in Denver last week but as I mentioned in the Broncos write-up, I think some of the Cowboys poor play can be attributed to early season fatigue caused by the unfamiliar altitude.

This line is certainly different than it would have been at the start of the season. Last season, Arizona led the NFL with 40.7 expected points added when targeting running backs. Johnson averaged 0.33 EPA/target while the other Cardinals running backs only averaged 0.06 EPA/target. Last week without Johnson, Arizona averaged -0.25 EPA/target to its running backs and Palmer will need to be better throwing to his wide receivers than he’s been so far this season.

Even with Arizona’s struggles we feel the line on this game should be +2.5 points with Johnson out and the Cardinals apply to an 87-34-2 ATS Monday night situation, so I will lean with Arizona.

However, our model sees more value on the under and this game also applies to a 38-13 week 3 Under situation. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 46 points or higher.

Football Best Bets 17-7 This Season

A pick-six by Western Kentucky in the final minute against Ball State (+11.5 but lost by 12 on that play) kept me from having a really good week on my College Best Bets, but I was still 7-4 on College Best Bets and I am now 17-7 on my Football Best Bets this season (13-6 on College Best Bets and 4-1 on NFL Best Bets) after going 148-107 (58%) on Football Best Bets in 2016.

My College Football has been profitable for years (55% winners since 1999 for +221.5 Stars of profit) and the NFL Best Bets are now 104-70 (60%) using the new NFL play-by-play model introduced last season, including 69-27 (72%) on sides.

I was pretty conservative the first 3 weeks in College Football but my in-season math model has kicked in and I had 11 College Best Bets this past week (7-4 record) and will probably have a lot this coming week as well.

My plan to be conservative the first four weeks of the season in the NFL has paid off so far (4-1 on Best Bets) but I’ll start to play more games in a couple of weeks.

I also have 4-Week and full season subscription packages available and you can view all Best Bet subscription packages on the Best Bets page.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cowboys
Cardinals

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 45.5 37.5
Succ Pass Plays 45.5% 56.7%
Sack Rate 3.2% 6.6%
Int Rate 2.0% 2.9%
Deep Pass Rate 9.3% 11.0%
Big Pass Yards 28.6% 26.3%
NYPP 5.6 5.4

Rush

Rush Plays 22.5 26.5
RB YPR 2.6 3.6
Stuff Rate 31.1% 12.6%
Succ Rush Plays 41.7% 37.8%
Big Rush Yards 24.2% 34.8%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 3.6

Game

All Snaps 68.0 64.0
Early Down Succ 47.8% 52.9%
Succ Rate 45.4% 50.4%
Big Yards Rate 25.8% 29.2%
Yards Per Play 4.8 4.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.4 28.2
Run Ratio 32.7% 39.1%
Starting Field Pos 33.5 21.5
Game Control -1.4 1.4

Points 18.0 22.5

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 44.5 41.5
Succ Pass Plays 41.4% 44.5%
Sack Rate 6.0% 6.1%
Int Rate 4.5% 2.6%
Deep Pass Rate 20.3% 13.2%
Big Pass Yards 54.1% 18.6%
NYPP 6.5 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 22.0 28.5
RB YPR 2.9 2.4
Stuff Rate 14.1% 22.8%
Succ Rush Plays 36.8% 35.1%
Big Rush Yards 17.7% 30.8%
Yards Per Rush 2.9 2.8

Game

All Snaps 66.5 70.0
Early Down Succ 40.4% 39.4%
Succ Rate 39.8% 40.7%
Big Yards Rate 46.5% 22.0%
Yards Per Play 5.3 4.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.0 28.5
Run Ratio 33.1% 40.7%
Starting Field Pos 29.0 30.6
Game Control -1.8 1.8

Points 19.5 24.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYG	19 – 3 W	9.1	48.7% / 48.8%	2.6% / 7.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.7 / 4.8	54.8% / 23.1%	19.4% / 7.7%	4.2 / 2.8	70 / 54	50.9% / 46.2%	51.4% / 42.6%	37.0% / 27.8%	5.6 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	44.3% / 24.1%	29.4 / 16.0
2	@DEN	17 – 42 L	-11.9	42.3% / 64.7%	3.8% / 5.9%	4.0% / 3.1%	4.4 / 5.9	28.6% / 52.5%	42.9% / 17.5%	2.9 / 4.5	66 / 74	44.7% / 59.6%	39.4% / 58.1%	14.6% / 30.7%	4.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.4%	21.2% / 54.1%	37.6 / 26.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	23 – 35 L	2.7	42.9% / 47.6%	2.0% / 2.4%	6.3% / 2.4%	5.4 / 6.8	38.9% / 35.7%	16.7% / 21.4%	2.5 / 3.0	67 / 70	41.2% / 42.3%	41.8% / 42.9%	29.4% / 27.4%	4.6 / 5.3	1.5% / 0.0%	26.9% / 40.0%	28.5 / 36.6
2	@IND	16 – 13 W	-6.3	40.0% / 41.5%	10.0% / 9.8%	2.8% / 2.7%	7.7 / 4.6	34.6% / 34.5%	11.5% / 24.1%	3.2 / 2.6	66 / 70	39.6% / 36.5%	37.9% / 38.6%	63.6% / 16.5%	5.9 / 3.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.4% / 41.4%	29.6 / 24.5

Dallas Cowboys @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Sep 24

5:30 PM Pacific

Game Analysis

Football Best Bets 17-7 This Season