Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5) vs Los Angeles Rams

I won my best bet last week fading the Rams, who lost to the Redskins by a touchdown as a 3-point favorite, and part of the reason for that play was the overreaction to the Rams’ 37-point victory in week 1 in which they were helped tremendously by turnovers and 3rd down success – two stats that have as much to do with luck as talent. Los Angeles lost in week 2 with neutral 3rd-4th down success and the turnover margin swinging the other way. It certainly appears as if second year quarterback Jared Goff is more comfortable in the new offensive system and the Rams should be a decent team this season.

The 49ers offense, meanwhile, rates as the worst in the NFL through two weeks mainly due to an inability to convert on 3rd down. San Francisco has only converted on 4 of their 23 3rd downs (17%) – their offense ranked a mere 28th last season in 3rd down conversions and was still converting twice as often (35%) so the Niners will improve offensively as their 3^rd down conversion rate regresses upwards towards expectations.

There appears to be some line value in favor of San Francisco but the Niners apply to a 10-31 ATS week 3 situation. I have no opinion on this game but would lean with San Francisco if the line gets to +3.

Team Stats
Game Log

Rams
49ers

LOS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.5 27.0
Succ Pass Plays 47.1% 38.1%
Sack Rate 5.2% 11.4%
Int Rate 1.9% 4.8%
Deep Pass Rate 19.6% 9.5%
Big Pass Yards 66.9% 62.1%
NYPP 9.3 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 31.0 32.0
RB YPR 3.1 4.6
Stuff Rate 18.1% 23.0%
Succ Rush Plays 40.8% 39.1%
Big Rush Yards 24.7% 55.6%
Yards Per Rush 2.9 4.5

Game

All Snaps 60.5 59.0
Early Down Succ 47.5% 44.8%
Succ Rate 42.3% 38.5%
Big Yards Rate 57.3% 63.8%
Yards Per Play 6.0 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 31.4
Run Ratio 50.2% 53.7%
Starting Field Pos 29.1 28.8
Game Control 8.4 -8.4

Points 33.0 18.0

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.0 33.0
Succ Pass Plays 33.4% 39.6%
Sack Rate 8.6% 3.6%
Int Rate 3.3% 2.1%
Deep Pass Rate 8.1% 20.7%
Big Pass Yards 13.0% 25.1%
NYPP 3.7 5.7

Rush

Rush Plays 17.0 42.0
RB YPR 6.2 2.8
Stuff Rate 23.9% 17.8%
Succ Rush Plays 39.6% 38.1%
Big Rush Yards 67.8% 28.5%
Yards Per Rush 5.9 3.0

Game

All Snaps 51.0 75.0
Early Down Succ 43.8% 40.0%
Succ Rate 37.0% 38.4%
Big Yards Rate 41.4% 26.7%
Yards Per Play 4.6 4.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.5 29.0
Run Ratio 33.7% 56.8%
Starting Field Pos 27.3 28.8
Game Control -7.2 7.2

Points 6.0 17.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	IND	46 – 9 W	21.3	54.8% / 28.0%	3.2% / 16.0%	0.0% / 9.5%	10.0 / 6.0	22.5% / 32.0%	22.5% / 28.0%	1.7 / 3.0	71 / 50	43.5% / 40.5%	36.6% / 30.0%	52.7% / 81.4%	5.3 / 4.5	1.4% / 2.0%	56.3% / 50.0%	35.8 / 23.1
2	WAS	20 – 27 L	-4.5	39.3% / 48.3%	7.1% / 6.9%	3.8% / 0.0%	8.6 / 5.4	59.1% / 46.2%	13.6% / 17.9%	4.2 / 5.9	50 / 68	51.4% / 49.1%	48.0% / 47.1%	61.9% / 46.2%	6.7 / 5.7	2.0% / 0.0%	44.0% / 57.4%	22.4 / 34.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CAR	3 – 23 L	-12.4	46.2% / 45.8%	10.3% / 0.0%	2.9% / 4.2%	4.3 / 7.1	26.7% / 39.0%	26.7% / 14.6%	3.4 / 2.9	54 / 65	48.7% / 42.6%	40.7% / 41.5%	33.6% / 29.7%	4.0 / 4.5	1.9% / 1.5%	27.8% / 63.1%	30.1 / 33.7
2	@SEA	9 – 12 L	-2.0	20.7% / 33.3%	6.9% / 7.1%	3.7% / 0.0%	3.1 / 4.3	52.6% / 37.2%	21.1% / 20.9%	8.4 / 3.1	48 / 85	38.9% / 37.5%	33.3% / 35.3%	49.2% / 23.7%	5.2 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	39.6% / 50.6%	24.5 / 23.9

Los Angeles Rams @

San Francisco 49ers

Thu, Sep 21

5:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis