Game Analysis

Note: The Strong Opinion Over was released when the total was 43 points, before Jayden Daniels was upgraded to starting for Washington. The Total is up to 46 points, but our model projects 49.9 points with Daniels playing – even after docking the Commanders’ offense 1.5 points for what we expect will be less running from Daniels.

The Over is still a Strong Opinion at 46 points or less, if you didn’t get to play it at 43 when it was released.

Strong Opinion – Over (43) – Chicago at WASHINGTON

• Marcus Mariota stepped in for Jayden Daniels last week and Washington’s offense didn’t miss a beat. Mariota averaged 8.4 yppp.
• Of course, Mariota was facing a Panthers’ defense that is surrendering 0.16 EPA/play (31st) and this week will have a much tougher test versus a Bears defense allowing -0.14 EPA/play (3rd).
• The Commanders have a 45% rush success rate (5th) but the backup QB isn’t going to get support from his ground game as Chicago is rated 4th in rush defense according to our metrics.
• Washington WR Terry McLaurin is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (9th) but he will be shut down by CB Jaylon Johnson, who is allowing just 0.55 yards per cover snap (5th).
• The Commanders are without starting DT Jonathan Allen and starting edge defender Dorance Armstrong, but I think they’ll be able to muster some pressure on Caleb Williams regardless. Bears right guards Matt Pryor and Nate Davis have combined to surrender 3 sacks and they will struggle to contain interior defender Daron Payne, who ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• S Jaquan Brisker and nickelback Kyler Gordon are out for Chicago’s defense. Those two are integral pieces to the secondary and are worth 0.8 points. Additionally, the weather forecast is even more favorable for scoring.
• Chicago RB D’Andre Swift is averaging 1.47 yards per route run (7th) but the screen game will be limited, as Washington’s defense is conceding -0.35 EPA/target to opposing running backs (3rd).
• Instead, Williams will look for wide receiver DJ Moore in a favorable matchup lined up across from Commanders CB Benjamin St-Juste, who is surrendering 1.60 yards per cover snap ranking 71st out of 74 qualifying cornerbacks.
• Our model favors Washington by 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 49.9 points with Jayden Daniels starting and adjusting -1.5 points for what we expect will be less running from Daniels.
• The Over is a Strong Opinion at 46 points or less.