Game Analysis
Lean – DENVER (+7/+6.5) over LA Chargers
The Chargers still have a slim chance of getting the one-seed in AFC with a win and a Chiefs loss to the Raiders, but most likely the Bolts will play next week in the wild card. The Broncos were 7-point road underdogs 6 weeks ago and won outright in Los Angeles, but now Denver is nearly a touchdown home underdog because they’ve been abysmal since losing WR Emmanuel Sanders and CB Chris Harris, in addition to the Chargers perceived motivational edge.
The Broncos rushed for 107 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first meeting and I expect them to rely heavily on their 6th-rated ground game again even with Phillip Lindsay out with a wrist injury. Lindsay is not crucial to this offense, in fact, he’s mostly been the beneficiary of fortunate blocking. Lindsay is averaging 5.4 yards per rush compared to Royce Freeman’s 4.1 yards per rush despite Freeman gaining nearly a full yard per rush more after contact. Freeman is averaging 0.17 avoided tackles per touch, while Lindsay is at 0.13 avoided tackles per touch and I do not expect a drop-off from Denver’s rushing attack with him on the sideline.
The Chargers ground game is unlikely to be as successful given that the Broncos rush defense ranks 3rd in the NFL. However, Denver is allowing 6.8 yards per target to opposing running backs (25h) and Phillip Rivers should be productive with check-downs. Russell Okung ranks in the top 20 in pass blocking efficiency and should give Broncos DE Bradley Chubb a good battle. However, on the other side, Sam Tevi has conceded more than twice as many sacks and pressures and doesn’t stand much of a chance across from Von Miller, whose 14.5 sacks this season rank 3rd.
There is a decent chance Anthony Lynn pulls his starters in the second half if Kansas City has a comfortable lead and our model shows some line value on the Broncos anyway, making them an underdog of only 5.3 points. The Chargers also apply to a 91-173-9 last road game situation that was 2-6 last week for those that qualified. I like Denver in this game even if the Chargers play their starters the entire game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.4
34.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.9%
47.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
16.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.1%
42.5%
-
NYPP
7.9
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.4
25.1
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
21.3%
22.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.7%
50.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.7%
42.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
59.8
59.9
-
Early Down Succ
52.9%
50.1%
-
Succ Rate
49.9%
48.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.5%
44.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.1
29.5
-
Run Ratio
42.8%
41.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
27.8
-
Game Control
2.5
-2.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.9
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
49.1%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
3.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.3%
17.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.9%
46.7%
-
NYPP
6.3
7.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.2
27.4
-
RB YPR
4.8
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
24.7%
19.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.0%
43.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.7%
37.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
62.1
65.1
-
Early Down Succ
50.7%
48.7%
-
Succ Rate
47.6%
46.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.8%
45.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.3%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
29.0
-
Run Ratio
40.7%
42.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.3
27.6
-
Game Control
-1.0
1.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
28 – 38 L |
-9.6 |
55.8% /
46.4% |
1.9% /
3.6% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
9.1 |
59.1% /
59.3% |
18.2% /
25.9% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
74 /
55 |
61.3% /
55.6% |
56.8% /
52.7% |
45.1% /
66.0% |
7.3 /
6.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
29.7% /
49.1% |
20.1 /
29.1 |
| 2 |
@BUF |
31 – 20 W |
14.5 |
65.5% /
36.8% |
6.9% /
13.2% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.3 /
5.5 |
33.3% /
54.5% |
40.7% /
31.8% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
56 /
60 |
55.6% /
45.7% |
50.0% /
43.3% |
44.0% /
59.0% |
6.3 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
36.7% |
36.5 /
26.7 |
| 3 |
@LA |
23 – 35 L |
-9.0 |
40.6% /
59.5% |
6.3% /
2.7% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
6.7 /
9.5 |
60.0% /
62.2% |
30.0% /
10.8% |
7.1 /
4.7 |
52 /
74 |
45.9% /
62.7% |
48.1% /
60.8% |
62.9% /
45.5% |
6.8 /
7.1 |
3.8% /
1.4% |
38.5% /
50.0% |
26.6 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
SF |
29 – 27 W |
-2.8 |
47.5% /
52.6% |
2.5% /
2.6% |
2.6% /
5.4% |
6.1 /
7.6 |
35.5% /
38.1% |
12.9% /
28.6% |
4.2 /
3.6 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
48.9% |
42.3% /
47.5% |
47.4% /
46.4% |
5.2 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.7% /
35.6% |
41.3 /
22.5 |
| 5 |
OAK |
26 – 10 W |
9.9 |
78.3% /
68.0% |
4.3% /
12.0% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
14.5 /
9.9 |
27.3% /
61.5% |
30.3% /
23.1% |
2.5 /
3.2 |
56 /
38 |
45.5% /
55.6% |
48.2% /
65.8% |
43.4% /
59.5% |
7.4 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
2.6% |
58.9% /
34.2% |
35.3 /
21.2 |
| 6 |
@CLE |
38 – 14 W |
14.7 |
45.5% /
39.2% |
4.5% /
9.8% |
4.8% /
4.3% |
9.2 /
4.2 |
63.2% /
42.9% |
13.2% /
33.3% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
60 /
72 |
68.8% /
41.5% |
56.7% /
40.3% |
69.2% /
50.2% |
7.5 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
63.3% /
29.2% |
30.5 /
34.2 |
| 7 |
TEN |
20 – 19 W |
4.9 |
57.1% /
58.8% |
7.1% /
5.9% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
10.6 /
6.6 |
35.3% /
48.5% |
17.6% /
18.2% |
2.8 /
5.0 |
45 /
67 |
52.9% /
51.0% |
48.9% /
53.7% |
55.4% /
33.1% |
7.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.8% /
49.3% |
29.0 /
27.5 |
| 9 |
@SEA |
25 – 17 W |
5.4 |
42.9% /
39.0% |
7.1% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
7.7 /
4.9 |
50.0% /
62.5% |
31.8% /
21.9% |
7.3 /
4.8 |
50 /
73 |
51.2% /
52.7% |
46.0% /
49.3% |
69.9% /
30.3% |
7.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.0% /
43.8% |
21.2 /
25.1 |
| 10 |
@OAK |
20 – 6 W |
5.9 |
48.1% /
39.0% |
3.7% /
9.8% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.0 |
57.7% /
43.5% |
19.2% /
21.7% |
4.3 /
5.0 |
53 /
64 |
59.5% /
45.5% |
52.8% /
40.6% |
47.5% /
45.3% |
6.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
49.1% /
35.9% |
21.6 /
23.1 |
| 11 |
DEN |
22 – 23 L |
3.5 |
47.8% /
46.9% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
8.3 /
6.8 |
38.5% /
57.9% |
23.1% /
15.8% |
3.7 /
5.7 |
72 /
51 |
40.4% /
56.4% |
44.4% /
51.0% |
52.8% /
45.5% |
6.7 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
37.3% |
19.7 /
32.7 |
| 12 |
ARI |
45 – 10 W |
12.8 |
63.9% /
38.1% |
11.1% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
6.6 /
4.1 |
59.4% /
28.0% |
12.5% /
24.0% |
5.6 /
2.5 |
68 /
46 |
67.9% /
35.5% |
61.8% /
32.6% |
38.7% /
32.0% |
6.1 /
3.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
47.1% /
54.3% |
36.2 /
32.6 |
| 13 |
@PIT |
33 – 30 W |
-6.8 |
57.9% /
50.0% |
5.3% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.5 /
5.9 |
31.8% /
52.9% |
27.3% /
5.9% |
3.9 /
3.8 |
60 /
63 |
46.9% /
53.8% |
48.3% /
50.8% |
36.1% /
28.0% |
6.2 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
27.0% |
21.7 /
29.1 |
| 14 |
CIN |
26 – 21 W |
6.9 |
51.6% /
46.7% |
6.5% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
5.0 |
48.0% /
43.8% |
20.0% /
21.9% |
3.4 /
4.5 |
56 /
62 |
52.4% /
47.9% |
50.0% /
45.2% |
31.6% /
36.6% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
51.6% |
27.3 /
34.7 |
| 15 |
@KC |
29 – 28 W |
-8.7 |
48.8% /
47.2% |
11.6% /
5.6% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.5 |
58.3% /
70.6% |
16.7% /
23.5% |
5.0 /
3.5 |
67 /
53 |
50.0% /
53.5% |
52.2% /
54.7% |
46.4% /
29.6% |
6.1 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.8% /
32.1% |
23.0 /
28.3 |
| 16 |
BAL |
10 – 22 L |
-4.2 |
41.5% /
44.0% |
9.8% /
12.0% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
8.1 |
43.8% /
35.1% |
6.3% /
32.4% |
3.2 /
4.4 |
57 /
62 |
45.5% /
45.2% |
42.1% /
38.7% |
6.6% /
57.3% |
3.5 /
5.9 |
1.8% /
1.6% |
28.1% /
59.7% |
30.8 /
28.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
27 – 24 W |
1.9 |
57.5% /
35.9% |
2.5% /
15.4% |
7.7% /
6.1% |
8.1 /
6.2 |
50.0% /
18.8% |
21.9% /
25.0% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
72 /
55 |
58.3% /
34.9% |
54.2% /
30.9% |
53.2% /
63.7% |
6.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
44.4% /
29.1% |
26.6 /
27.4 |
| 2 |
OAK |
20 – 19 W |
-6.1 |
36.1% /
72.7% |
2.8% /
3.0% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
8.5 |
57.1% /
44.4% |
17.9% /
18.5% |
6.0 /
3.4 |
64 /
60 |
42.6% /
67.3% |
45.3% /
60.0% |
57.7% /
41.3% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
45.0% |
25.7 /
23.9 |
| 3 |
@BAL |
14 – 27 L |
-4.7 |
45.9% /
48.8% |
8.1% /
4.9% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
6.5 |
45.8% /
32.3% |
33.3% /
19.4% |
5.0 /
2.6 |
61 /
72 |
47.8% /
43.1% |
45.9% /
41.7% |
39.9% /
33.9% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
43.1% |
33.4 /
27.2 |
| 4 |
KC |
23 – 27 L |
1.9 |
32.4% /
50.0% |
10.8% /
2.2% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
6.6 |
72.7% /
66.7% |
18.2% /
14.8% |
7.2 /
5.3 |
59 /
73 |
53.3% /
59.3% |
47.5% /
56.2% |
59.7% /
48.8% |
6.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
37.0% |
24.2 /
30.6 |
| 5 |
@NYJ |
16 – 34 L |
-7.7 |
71.8% /
72.7% |
10.3% /
9.1% |
2.9% /
10.0% |
8.8 /
17.2 |
47.1% /
46.2% |
47.1% /
17.9% |
5.4 /
8.3 |
56 /
50 |
56.1% /
42.6% |
64.3% /
52.0% |
42.2% /
74.5% |
7.8 /
10.3 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
30.4% /
78.0% |
26.2 /
28.8 |
| 6 |
LA |
20 – 23 L |
-8.2 |
48.8% /
30.3% |
4.7% /
15.2% |
2.4% /
3.6% |
6.9 /
5.3 |
33.3% /
68.3% |
16.7% /
2.4% |
3.4 /
6.6 |
61 /
74 |
50.0% /
55.8% |
44.3% /
51.4% |
48.0% /
53.8% |
5.9 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.5% /
55.4% |
27.0 /
28.5 |
| 7 |
@ARI |
45 – 10 W |
24.9 |
45.8% /
40.0% |
8.3% /
13.3% |
4.5% /
7.7% |
7.4 /
3.4 |
32.4% /
33.3% |
23.5% /
28.6% |
3.9 /
3.3 |
58 /
66 |
42.5% /
41.2% |
37.9% /
37.9% |
52.6% /
32.3% |
5.4 /
3.4 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
58.6% /
31.8% |
37.0 /
23.5 |
| 8 |
@KC |
23 – 30 L |
-4.5 |
41.0% /
50.0% |
12.8% /
5.6% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
5.7 /
8.1 |
66.7% /
33.3% |
13.3% /
16.7% |
6.3 /
2.7 |
69 /
54 |
55.4% /
46.5% |
52.2% /
44.4% |
57.7% /
42.4% |
6.0 /
6.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
33.3% |
23.3 /
38.0 |
| 9 |
HOU |
17 – 19 L |
-3.8 |
47.7% /
53.6% |
4.5% /
14.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
6.9 |
35.0% /
39.4% |
40.0% /
30.3% |
3.8 /
3.0 |
64 /
61 |
43.8% /
51.1% |
43.8% /
45.9% |
38.5% /
10.7% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
31.3% /
54.1% |
22.5 /
31.4 |
| 11 |
@LAC |
23 – 22 W |
-3.5 |
46.9% /
47.8% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
4.7% |
6.8 /
8.3 |
57.9% /
38.5% |
15.8% /
23.1% |
5.7 /
3.7 |
51 /
72 |
56.4% /
40.4% |
51.0% /
44.4% |
45.5% /
52.8% |
6.4 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
36.1% |
32.7 /
19.7 |
| 12 |
PIT |
24 – 17 W |
1.7 |
46.7% /
51.7% |
6.7% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.1 /
7.5 |
34.6% /
56.3% |
15.4% /
6.3% |
4.9 /
4.7 |
56 /
76 |
50.0% /
54.1% |
41.1% /
52.6% |
46.0% /
36.1% |
5.6 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
2.6% |
46.4% /
21.1% |
25.8 /
25.1 |
| 13 |
@CIN |
24 – 10 W |
6.2 |
43.5% /
38.1% |
8.7% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.2 /
4.8 |
60.0% /
43.5% |
17.1% /
34.8% |
6.3 /
4.8 |
58 /
65 |
60.5% /
42.0% |
53.4% /
40.0% |
61.0% /
57.6% |
6.2 /
4.8 |
1.7% /
3.1% |
60.3% /
35.4% |
32.7 /
22.7 |
| 14 |
@SF |
14 – 20 L |
-10.6 |
38.6% /
47.2% |
4.5% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
3.9 /
8.5 |
39.3% /
36.1% |
25.0% /
11.1% |
3.7 /
2.4 |
72 /
72 |
43.8% /
52.0% |
38.9% /
41.7% |
25.8% /
53.4% |
3.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.9% /
50.0% |
25.4 /
24.3 |
| 15 |
CLE |
16 – 17 L |
-1.2 |
49.0% /
48.5% |
4.1% /
6.1% |
4.3% /
3.2% |
4.9 /
5.3 |
40.0% /
48.3% |
40.0% /
17.2% |
1.7 /
4.7 |
69 /
62 |
50.0% /
52.2% |
46.4% /
48.4% |
12.9% /
38.1% |
3.9 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
29.0% /
46.8% |
20.2 /
34.8 |
Los Angeles Chargers
@ 
Denver Broncos