Game Analysis
Lean – Under (44) – Seattle (-3.5) vs SAN FRANCISCO
This line closed Seahawks -10 with a total of 45 two weeks ago so they’ve shaded some towards the Niners ever after adjusting for the home field change. Nick Mullens has thrown for 7.6 yards per pass play through 5 starts, which ranks 6th in the league, mostly due to George Kittle and Kyle Shanahan’s play calling. Kittle had 210 receiving yards in the first half of last week’s game, 4 yards shy of the all-time tight end record held by Shannon Sharpe. Kittle is the focal point of this offense, getting targeted on 24.6% of his routes and he’s turned those opportunities into production with a league-leading 2.82 yards per route run and 705 yards after the catch, already the most of any tight end in the last decade. However, Seattle’s defense is about a half yard per target better than average against tight ends and held Kittle to 70 yards two weeks ago.
The Seahawks offense used play-action on just 17% of pass plays in the first month of the season, but they’ve since doubled it to 34% and it’s made a massive difference. Seattle is gaining 6.1 yards per play since week 5 compared to less than 5 yards per play with the lower play-action rate. We have the offense as a borderline top 10 offense moving forward so long as they stick with the new scheme.
Our model favors Seattle by 4.6 points with a predicted total of 44 points with updated weather information. I’ll lean with the under on the basis of a very good 710-512-16 Under angle.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
28.4
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
50.9%
-
Sack Rate
10.5%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
1.6%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.6%
15.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
47.6%
40.0%
-
NYPP
7.2
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.4
23.3
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
19.6%
20.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.0%
46.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
45.3%
43.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
61.8
59.1
-
Early Down Succ
49.1%
51.9%
-
Succ Rate
47.1%
48.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.5%
44.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.7
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
29.6
-
Run Ratio
54.2%
39.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
26.3
-
Game Control
2.5
-2.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.5
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.1%
47.5%
-
Sack Rate
9.1%
7.7%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
0.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.7%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
50.1%
42.9%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.5
27.3
-
RB YPR
4.6
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
18.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.1%
43.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.3%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
63.1
63.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.0%
47.3%
-
Succ Rate
46.1%
44.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.6%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
28.4
-
Run Ratio
45.4%
44.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.4
30.6
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
24 – 27 L |
-1.9 |
35.9% /
57.5% |
15.4% /
2.5% |
6.1% /
7.7% |
6.2 /
8.1 |
18.8% /
50.0% |
25.0% /
21.9% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
55 /
72 |
34.9% /
58.3% |
30.9% /
54.2% |
63.7% /
53.2% |
5.6 /
6.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
29.1% /
44.4% |
27.4 /
26.6 |
| 2 |
@CHI |
17 – 24 L |
-7.4 |
43.6% /
52.8% |
15.4% /
5.6% |
3.0% /
5.9% |
5.2 /
5.1 |
45.5% /
48.3% |
13.6% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
3.0 |
61 /
65 |
44.9% /
55.1% |
44.3% /
50.8% |
23.2% /
6.3% |
4.5 /
4.2 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
36.1% /
44.6% |
24.5 /
33.6 |
| 3 |
DAL |
24 – 13 W |
8.3 |
42.9% /
28.2% |
7.1% /
12.8% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
6.5 /
3.5 |
30.0% /
52.6% |
30.0% /
15.8% |
2.9 /
8.7 |
68 /
58 |
34.0% /
39.5% |
35.3% /
36.2% |
34.8% /
51.2% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
58.8% /
32.8% |
27.2 /
25.9 |
| 4 |
@ARI |
20 – 17 W |
2.0 |
48.1% /
42.9% |
7.4% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
6.1 |
50.0% /
39.3% |
23.5% /
35.7% |
5.0 /
3.3 |
61 /
56 |
58.0% /
40.9% |
49.2% /
41.1% |
35.6% /
54.0% |
5.4 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
55.7% /
50.0% |
35.5 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
LA |
31 – 33 L |
1.0 |
60.0% /
83.3% |
13.3% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
12.2 /
13.0 |
53.1% /
40.6% |
18.8% /
15.6% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
47 /
56 |
44.2% /
56.9% |
55.3% /
58.9% |
66.5% /
49.1% |
7.9 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
68.1% /
57.1% |
26.6 /
33.7 |
| 6 |
@OAK |
27 – 3 W |
15.9 |
50.0% /
37.8% |
4.2% /
16.2% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
2.9 |
46.2% /
52.6% |
15.4% /
15.8% |
4.0 /
4.2 |
63 /
56 |
45.7% /
46.5% |
47.6% /
42.9% |
46.9% /
31.9% |
5.9 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
61.9% /
33.9% |
42.2 /
20.5 |
| 8 |
@DET |
28 – 14 W |
8.8 |
57.9% /
55.8% |
10.5% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
12.5 /
6.9 |
50.0% /
30.8% |
23.8% /
23.1% |
4.2 /
2.6 |
61 /
56 |
53.2% /
47.8% |
52.5% /
50.0% |
48.7% /
26.0% |
6.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
68.9% /
23.2% |
25.8 /
15.0 |
| 9 |
LAC |
17 – 25 L |
-5.4 |
39.0% /
42.9% |
9.8% /
7.1% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
62.5% /
50.0% |
21.9% /
31.8% |
4.8 /
7.3 |
73 /
50 |
52.7% /
51.2% |
49.3% /
46.0% |
30.3% /
69.9% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.8% /
44.0% |
25.1 /
21.2 |
| 10 |
@LA |
31 – 36 L |
-0.6 |
48.3% /
53.7% |
13.8% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.5 |
64.7% /
70.8% |
14.7% /
8.3% |
8.0 /
6.3 |
63 /
65 |
64.2% /
65.4% |
57.1% /
60.0% |
66.7% /
36.7% |
6.6 /
7.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
54.0% /
36.9% |
24.1 /
30.2 |
| 11 |
GB |
27 – 24 W |
-4.5 |
44.1% /
45.7% |
8.8% /
14.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
8.9 |
47.4% /
38.5% |
7.9% /
15.4% |
4.6 /
3.7 |
72 /
48 |
48.0% /
48.6% |
45.8% /
43.8% |
42.5% /
55.2% |
5.3 /
7.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
52.8% /
27.1% |
22.3 /
30.4 |
| 12 |
@CAR |
30 – 27 W |
-1.6 |
59.4% /
66.7% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
10.1 /
8.5 |
25.8% /
59.3% |
25.8% /
25.9% |
2.5 /
8.1 |
63 /
57 |
44.2% /
68.1% |
42.9% /
63.2% |
60.2% /
57.6% |
6.3 /
8.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
47.4% |
22.4 /
29.3 |
| 13 |
SF |
43 – 16 W |
14.5 |
45.0% /
49.0% |
15.0% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
8.2 /
7.9 |
60.0% /
26.1% |
16.7% /
30.4% |
5.6 /
2.9 |
50 /
72 |
59.0% /
40.0% |
54.0% /
41.7% |
74.4% /
50.7% |
6.6 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
60.0% /
31.9% |
32.9 /
24.2 |
| 14 |
MIN |
21 – 7 W |
3.5 |
31.8% /
45.7% |
9.1% /
5.7% |
5.0% /
0.0% |
2.7 /
5.7 |
56.8% /
45.5% |
18.2% /
18.2% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
66 /
57 |
56.0% /
55.8% |
48.5% /
45.6% |
36.6% /
39.4% |
4.2 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
66.7% /
38.6% |
26.2 /
24.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIN |
16 – 24 L |
-7.6 |
38.9% /
43.6% |
8.3% /
7.7% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.8 |
44.0% /
40.6% |
32.0% /
21.9% |
3.6 /
3.6 |
61 /
71 |
41.7% /
43.4% |
41.0% /
42.3% |
60.9% /
24.5% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
41.0% /
45.1% |
23.1 /
33.3 |
| 2 |
DET |
30 – 27 W |
5.3 |
53.1% /
43.6% |
18.8% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
44.8% /
44.4% |
24.1% /
5.6% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
61 /
73 |
56.3% /
44.6% |
49.2% /
43.8% |
48.7% /
38.4% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.5% /
24.7% |
32.3 /
24.8 |
| 3 |
@KC |
27 – 38 L |
-13.8 |
44.1% /
55.0% |
11.8% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
7.7 |
51.7% /
46.7% |
24.1% /
16.7% |
6.1 /
2.6 |
63 /
70 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
47.6% /
51.4% |
42.9% /
28.2% |
6.4 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
46.0% /
42.9% |
22.8 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@LAC |
27 – 29 L |
2.8 |
52.6% /
47.5% |
2.6% /
2.5% |
5.4% /
2.6% |
7.6 /
6.1 |
38.1% /
35.5% |
28.6% /
12.9% |
3.6 /
4.2 |
59 /
71 |
48.9% /
50.0% |
47.5% /
42.3% |
46.4% /
47.4% |
6.2 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.6% /
43.7% |
22.5 /
41.3 |
| 5 |
ARI |
18 – 28 L |
-6.1 |
71.1% /
80.0% |
10.5% /
10.0% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
16.4 |
50.0% /
30.8% |
29.4% /
23.1% |
4.3 /
2.3 |
72 /
36 |
45.2% /
40.0% |
61.1% /
44.4% |
41.2% /
47.1% |
6.2 /
6.2 |
4.2% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
72.2% |
22.7 /
39.7 |
| 6 |
@GB |
30 – 33 L |
1.4 |
52.0% /
37.5% |
8.0% /
6.3% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
8.4 |
66.7% /
52.4% |
13.3% /
14.3% |
5.8 /
5.5 |
55 /
69 |
67.4% /
44.4% |
60.0% /
42.0% |
54.1% /
55.5% |
7.3 /
7.6 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
54.5% /
30.4% |
25.9 /
32.0 |
| 7 |
LA |
10 – 39 L |
-16.0 |
29.4% /
53.8% |
20.6% /
7.7% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
7.1 |
62.5% /
57.9% |
16.7% /
10.5% |
4.5 /
3.9 |
58 /
64 |
47.8% /
67.4% |
43.1% /
56.3% |
68.9% /
37.1% |
3.9 /
5.2 |
3.4% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
59.4% |
26.7 /
40.8 |
| 8 |
@ARI |
15 – 18 L |
3.1 |
40.6% /
41.9% |
12.5% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
32.3% /
47.6% |
35.5% /
14.3% |
3.5 /
4.2 |
63 /
64 |
36.7% /
44.0% |
36.5% /
43.8% |
46.8% /
21.8% |
4.2 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
49.2% /
32.8% |
31.1 /
20.8 |
| 9 |
OAK |
34 – 3 W |
16.4 |
59.1% /
31.3% |
0.0% /
25.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.9 /
4.4 |
28.6% /
37.5% |
31.4% /
20.8% |
4.2 /
4.3 |
57 /
56 |
45.0% /
39.0% |
40.4% /
33.9% |
74.0% /
44.4% |
7.2 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.4% /
42.9% |
28.9 /
23.6 |
| 10 |
NYG |
23 – 27 L |
1.5 |
43.2% /
43.8% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
5.6 |
44.8% /
34.8% |
17.2% /
30.4% |
4.3 /
4.2 |
66 /
55 |
39.6% /
39.5% |
43.9% /
40.0% |
24.3% /
53.8% |
5.7 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
41.8% |
25.7 /
34.5 |
| 12 |
@TB |
9 – 27 L |
-8.9 |
44.4% /
56.4% |
11.1% /
2.6% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
7.8 |
48.0% /
33.3% |
24.0% /
24.2% |
6.0 /
3.3 |
61 /
72 |
52.9% /
47.3% |
45.9% /
45.8% |
58.3% /
39.6% |
5.6 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.0% /
45.8% |
20.6 /
22.1 |
| 13 |
@SEA |
16 – 43 L |
-14.5 |
49.0% /
45.0% |
6.1% /
15.0% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
8.2 |
26.1% /
60.0% |
30.4% /
16.7% |
2.9 /
5.6 |
72 /
50 |
40.0% /
59.0% |
41.7% /
54.0% |
50.7% /
74.4% |
6.3 /
6.6 |
2.8% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
60.0% |
24.2 /
32.9 |
| 14 |
DEN |
20 – 14 W |
10.6 |
47.2% /
38.6% |
8.3% /
4.5% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
3.9 |
36.1% /
39.3% |
11.1% /
25.0% |
2.4 /
3.7 |
72 /
72 |
52.0% /
43.8% |
41.7% /
38.9% |
53.4% /
25.8% |
5.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
38.9% |
24.3 /
25.4 |
Seattle Seahawks
@ 
San Francisco 49ers