Game Analysis
Best Bet – 6 point Teaser – *Pittsburgh (-2) with Houston (-1.5)
PITTSBURGH (-8) over Cleveland
Lean – Under 49
The Steelers may have a unique rest advantage on Sunday coming off a bye against a Browns team that just played their 4th overtime game of the season. I give credit to the Browns for being so competitive but rookie QB Baker Mayfield has settled down since his electrifying debut in relief in week 3 against the Jets. Mayfield has averaged a poor 5.4 yards per pass play in his 4 starts and could be in trouble versus Pittsburgh’s defensive line that ranks 5th in sack rate at 8.2%. Mayfield targets Jarvis Landry on 28% of his throws under pressure, the 3rd-most in the NFL, but Landry is likely to be blanketed by Joe Haden, who is surrendering just 0.93 yards per cover snap (21st). Cleveland is likely to turn to their ground game as long as they can keep this game close. The Browns traded Carlos Hyde this week to give more carries to rookie Nick Chubb, whose 47% rush success rate is 12 percentage points higher than Hyde’s, and Cleveland’s rushing attack is likely to improve moving forward with Chubb getting more carries but I don’t think it will be enough to stay within a touchdown of the Steelers in this game.
Another Browns rookie, Denzel Ward, is having a solid season at cornerback and should battle with Antonio Brown after holding him to 5.8 yards per target in week 1. However, Cleveland hasn’t found someone to play opposite Ward and the Steelers can take advantage of this considering their second wide receiver is better than most. JuJu Smith-Schuster is gaining 2.18 yards per route run this season (13th) after finishing 9th a year ago. Jesse James and Vance McDonald both rank top 10 in yards per route run among tight ends, but they should be limited against a Browns defense allowing just 6.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends (6th).
Our model favors the Steelers by 10.1 points with a total prediction of 47.1. The line value in this game isn’t quite enough to justify an individual Best Bet on the Steelers, but teasers add value when moving through the key numbers 3 and 7 and we’re teasing this down and pairing it with Houston -1.5 as a 1-Star Best Bet. There’s a chance of rain on Sunday, which would make me more interested in this under, but for now just a lean Under.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.3
40.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.5%
53.0%
-
Sack Rate
11.2%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
4.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.0%
19.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.5%
35.6%
-
NYPP
5.8
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.1
30.9
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
28.8%
28.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.1%
45.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
56.2%
53.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.7
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
69.4
71.6
-
Early Down Succ
41.7%
51.9%
-
Succ Rate
40.6%
50.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
49.6%
40.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.7
28.9
-
Run Ratio
42.0%
44.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.5
28.6
-
Game Control
-3.9
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
43.3
42.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
54.0%
49.0%
-
Sack Rate
3.3%
8.6%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.6%
22.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.2%
42.1%
-
NYPP
8.2
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.3
24.5
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
22.3%
23.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
37.7%
43.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.9%
51.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
66.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.2%
47.8%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
47.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.1%
43.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
27.8
-
Run Ratio
35.8%
36.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.1
29.6
-
Game Control
1.5
-1.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
21 – 21 T |
-6.0 |
21.7% /
40.0% |
15.2% /
8.9% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
3.3 /
7.0 |
39.5% /
44.4% |
34.2% /
19.4% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
84 /
81 |
30.8% /
42.2% |
29.8% /
42.0% |
64.5% /
48.4% |
3.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
45.2% /
44.4% |
34.4 /
23.9 |
| 2 |
@NO |
18 – 21 L |
2.8 |
48.5% /
63.2% |
9.1% /
7.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.6 |
33.3% /
37.5% |
14.8% /
25.0% |
3.4 /
2.6 |
60 /
62 |
43.5% /
60.4% |
41.7% /
53.2% |
43.4% /
30.8% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
45.0% /
38.7% |
28.4 /
35.0 |
| 3 |
NYJ |
21 – 17 W |
-5.4 |
36.6% /
36.4% |
9.8% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
43.3% |
3.9 /
3.6 |
76 /
63 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
39.5% /
42.9% |
32.3% /
22.4% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.1% /
47.6% |
33.3 /
23.2 |
| 4 |
@OAK |
42 – 45 L |
2.1 |
37.2% /
53.3% |
4.7% /
5.0% |
4.9% /
3.5% |
6.5 /
7.1 |
43.8% /
33.3% |
21.9% /
36.7% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
75 /
90 |
42.1% /
52.1% |
40.0% /
46.7% |
57.8% /
44.2% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
42.7% /
33.3% |
26.1 /
34.9 |
| 5 |
BAL |
12 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.1% /
80.6% |
17.2% /
6.5% |
4.2% /
3.4% |
10.5 /
9.5 |
46.4% /
48.0% |
35.7% /
32.0% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
57 /
56 |
45.5% /
47.8% |
54.4% /
66.1% |
57.7% /
35.1% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
49.1% /
44.6% |
19.7 /
31.4 |
| 6 |
LAC |
14 – 38 L |
-14.7 |
39.2% /
45.5% |
9.8% /
4.5% |
4.3% /
4.8% |
4.2 /
9.2 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
33.3% /
13.2% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
72 /
60 |
41.5% /
68.8% |
40.3% /
56.7% |
50.2% /
69.2% |
4.4 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.2% /
63.3% |
34.2 /
30.5 |
| 7 |
@TB |
23 – 26 L |
-6.5 |
38.5% /
51.8% |
12.8% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
4.8 /
6.1 |
39.1% /
42.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
5.2 /
3.5 |
62 /
89 |
45.7% /
49.3% |
38.7% /
48.3% |
41.0% /
35.4% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
1.6% /
2.2% |
37.1% /
37.1% |
37.6 /
21.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CLE |
21 – 21 T |
6.0 |
40.0% /
21.7% |
8.9% /
15.2% |
7.3% /
2.6% |
7.0 /
3.3 |
44.4% /
39.5% |
19.4% /
34.2% |
4.4 /
4.7 |
81 /
84 |
42.2% /
30.8% |
42.0% /
29.8% |
48.4% /
64.5% |
5.8 /
3.9 |
3.7% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
45.2% |
23.9 /
34.4 |
| 2 |
KC |
37 – 42 L |
-9.7 |
50.8% /
69.0% |
1.6% /
3.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
11.1 |
38.5% /
44.4% |
23.1% /
14.8% |
2.5 /
4.8 |
74 /
56 |
51.7% /
63.8% |
48.6% /
57.1% |
35.2% /
56.1% |
6.4 /
8.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
17.6% /
48.2% |
21.8 /
30.3 |
| 3 |
@TB |
30 – 27 W |
9.7 |
51.2% /
45.3% |
7.3% /
5.7% |
2.6% /
6.0% |
8.2 /
7.4 |
36.0% /
47.1% |
28.0% /
17.6% |
3.2 /
3.8 |
66 /
70 |
54.0% /
48.3% |
45.5% /
45.7% |
45.4% /
43.6% |
6.3 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
37.9% /
24.3% |
28.0 /
25.2 |
| 4 |
BAL |
14 – 26 L |
-6.3 |
47.9% /
47.7% |
2.1% /
4.5% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
8.1 |
16.7% /
48.5% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
1.7 /
3.0 |
60 /
77 |
50.0% /
51.9% |
41.7% /
48.1% |
42.1% /
32.7% |
4.8 /
5.9 |
1.7% /
1.3% |
20.0% /
42.9% |
21.2 /
36.8 |
| 5 |
ATL |
41 – 17 W |
8.9 |
84.2% /
56.8% |
0.0% /
16.2% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
13.2 /
7.1 |
50.0% /
36.8% |
15.6% /
31.6% |
4.1 /
3.3 |
51 /
56 |
51.1% /
39.6% |
62.7% /
50.0% |
39.3% /
36.1% |
7.5 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
62.7% /
33.9% |
36.1 /
20.3 |
| 6 |
@CIN |
28 – 21 W |
0.7 |
50.0% /
53.3% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
4.7 |
40.9% /
46.2% |
22.7% /
30.8% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
68 /
58 |
46.2% /
52.2% |
47.1% /
51.7% |
60.2% /
25.1% |
7.1 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.4% /
22.4% |
19.8 /
30.7 |
Cleveland Browns
@ 
Pittsburgh Steelers