Game Analysis

Lean – Indianapolis (+5) over LAS VEGAS

Lean – Under (41.5)

· The Colts gained 2.0 yppl in New England last week, which was the lowest output by any offense this season. Head coach Frank Reich was promptly fired.

· Teams with a new head coach are 14-10 ATS since 2010, but this is an incredibly unique situation.

· Indianapolis hired Jeff Saturday, who is the first ever NFL head coach with zero experience at the pro or college level. Not to mention, he hasn’t been with the Colts all season.

· No one remaining on the Colts offensive staff has ever called plays.

· Saturday is likely to be a clear downgrade from Reich, who carried Carson Wentz to the league’s 8th scoring offense last season at 26.5 points per game. Reich was also the offensive coordinator for backup QB Nick Foles when the Eagles won the Super Bowl. Frank Reich was 40-33-1 with six different quarterbacks in his five seasons in Indianapolis.

· Saturday was an offensive lineman in the NFL and I’m guessing he’ll put an emphasis on establishing the run. However, the Colts running backs are last in the NFL with -44.5 EPA on carries this season. Furthermore, the Raiders rush defense ranks 4th according to our metrics.

· Sam Ehlinger clearly isn’t the answer for Indianapolis at quarterback, as he’s averaging only 3.7 yppp.

· The Colts’ defense was a lot better than the score indicated last week. The Patriots scored a defensive TD and blocked a punt leading to a touchdown on a short field. New England ended up scoring 26 points on just 3.3 yppl.

· Davante Adams bounced back from the flu in New Orleans scoring two touchdowns last week versus Jacksonville. Adams is now averaging 2.23 yards per route run (9th), but he has a tougher matchup on Sunday. Indianapolis is conceding just 7.4 yards per target to WRs (10th).

· The Las Vegas interior offensive line is surrendering 6.9 pressures per game and will not be able to protect Derek Carr in this game. Colts’ interior defender DeForest Buckner finished with a sack and a quarterback hit last week. Buckner ranks 4th in pass rushing efficiency this season.

. WR Hunter Renfro and TE Darren Waller are both out for the Raiders, which is worth about a point.

· Our model favors the Raiders by 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 39.8 points, but the situation strongly favors the Colts, who apply to a 234-126-8 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation while the Raiders apply to a 32-87-4 ATS situation. I’d have made the Colts a play of some sort here if not for the change of head coach.