Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – HOUSTON (-2.5) over Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay’s offense averaged only 4.6 yppl in the first game without All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs and WR Chris Godwin.
• Baker Mayfield 0.30 EPA/play (11th) in week 1 despite a -3.3% completion percentage versus expectation (23rd), which is a positive sign for new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard.
• Mayfield was definitely getting away with a lot to not have an interception despite an 11% turnover-worthy throw rate (2nd-worst).
• Buccaneers’ rookie WR Emeka Egbuka filled in admirably for Godwin with two touchdown grabs in his debut.
• However, I’m more worried about Wirfs’ replacement on Monday night. Graham Barton is a center playing out of position at left tackle will have to take nearly every rep across from edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, who ranked 9th and 18th respectively in pass rushing efficiency last season.
• Tampa Bay’s rush defense allowed a league-low -0.52 EPA/play in week 1 so it’ll be all on the shoulders of CJ Stroud to move the ball through the air.
• The Rams had a 32% play action rate (3rd-highest) during Texans’ new offensive coordinator Nick Caley’s time in Los Angeles, but he only called an 11% play action rate in his first game (27th), which is really leaving his overmatched offensive line out to dry.
• Houston’s offensive line surrendered 8 unblocked pressures last week.
• Texans’ rookie RT Aireontae Ersery ranked 50th in pass blocking efficiency out of 53 qualifying week 1 tackles and he will struggle across from edge rusher Haason Reddick, who had a league-high 8 pressures.
• With Houston slot WR Christian Kirk sidelined, the Texans’ tight ends had a 33% target share in week 1 (8th-highest) and Stroud will need to continue getting the ball out quickly to them as the Buccaneers surrendered a 59% success rate to tight ends last season (28th).
• Buccaneers RT Luke Goedeke did not practice Thursday or Friday. Tampa Bay is already without the league’s best left tackle Tristan Wirfs. They moved C Graham Barton out to play LT last week because they didn’t trust Charlie Heck. Now, it’s trending towards them having to play Heck and Barton (out of position) across from one of the league’s best edge rushing tandems.
• Our model favors Houston by 3.2 with a predicted total of 42.0 and I like the matchups for the Texans.
• With 3 being such a key number (4.2% of games with a spread around 3 land on the favorite winning by 3) that would make Houston -2.5 a 54.2% bet if the true line on this game were 3.0. We think it’s a bit higher than that, especially given the favorable matchups, and are willing to go up to -2.5 -120 odds.

Houston is a Strong Opinion at -2.5 up to -120 odds.