Game Analysis

San Francisco (-3) vs NEW ORLEANS

Lean – Over (40.5)

• After accounting for the Kittle, Jennings, and Blackmon injuries, our initial analysis for this game on Tuesday was the true total  should be 45 if Purdy was the starter which would’ve been a 63.5% bet for Over 41. If Purdy was out, we had the true total is 42 which is a 53% bet at Over 41. We estimated a 60% chance Purdy suits up on Sunday, so we took a bit of a gamble on an expected 59.3% play and released a 1-Star Best Bet on over 41 given those percentages.
• Our calculated gamble did not come through, as Purdy was downgraded to out. We still see some value going over 40.5, but not enough for a Best Bet or Strong Opinion, knowing what we know now – although the 1-Star on Over 41 will obviously be counted in our results.
• There are injuries working in our favor as well. New Orleans S Tyrann Mathieu decided to retire this summer, so the Saints filled the hole at safety late, signing Julian Blackmon, who conceded only 7 yards on 3 targets in week 1 but is possibly out for the season.
• New Orleans will also likely be without edge defender Chase Young, who had 66 pressures last year (7th).
• Mac Jones is a capable backup to Purdy. Jones averaged 5.7 yppp last season in Jacksonville with a similar supporting cast as he’ll have on Sunday and with worse play calling.
• Saints WR Chris Olave has 27 targets in two starts with Spencer Rattler and he will have a favorable matchup when lined up across from CB Renardo Green, who surrendered 11.5 yards per target in week 1.
• New Orleans had a 34% no-huddle rate in Kellen Moore’s first game in charge, with 3 more no-huddle snaps blown dead by penalty. A 34% no-huddle rate would’ve been the 2nd-highest in 2024 and I expect this game to have a faster-than-average pace.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 2.1 points with a predicted total of 44.4 points.