Game Analysis

MIAMI (-1) vs New England

• It wasn’t as bad for Miami’s offense as it appeared last week. The Dolphins turned the ball over on 43% of their possessions, the highest rate for the franchise in the last 20 years.
• Miami’s offense had a 41% success rate (23rd) and also ranked 23rd in success rate excluding the 4th quarter, so it wasn’t skewed by garbage time.
• The Dolphins averaged 7.5 yppp on throws behind the line of scrimmage against the Colts, but the Patriots rallied to the ball under Mike Vrabel and contained Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty to 2 catches for 2 yards last week.
• Tua Tagovailoa will need to throw downfield more often on Sunday, but the question is whether he’ll have the time, likely without two starters on the offensive line.
• We know Miami will be without free agent addition guard James Daniels, who ranked 14th in pass blocking efficiency last healthy season in 2023. The Dolphins are also likely without RT Austin Jackson, leaving backup Larry Borom to line up across from edge defender Harold Landry, who led the NFL in pass rushing efficiency week 1.
• The Patriots also have a major injury to watch in All-Pro CB Christian Gonzalez. Backup cornerback  Alex Austin surrendered 11.0 yards per target last week.
• Miami’s defense surrendered 0.17 EPA/target to opposing running backs last season (27th), and it looks like a favorable matchup for Drake Maye’s screen game as New England’s RBs had a 23% target share in Josh McDaniels’ first game last week (6th-highest).
• The Dolphins are 12-1 ATS in September home games against teams from cold-weather climates, as it is typically 90°F heat and humidity. Miami makes the visitors stand in the sun while they take the shady sideline. It looks like it’s “only” going to be 84°F on Sunday, so it may not affect the Patriots as much as usual.
• Our model favors the Dolphins by 3.2 with a predicted total of 45.0.
• However, New England applies to a 172-75-3 ATS situation.