Game Analysis

Lean – TENNESSEE (+5.5) over LA Rams

• The Rams only scored 14 points in the season opener, but Matthew Stafford did not look limited by his back. Stafford averaged 7.0 yppp with a league-high 17% big-time throw rate. Three of Stafford’s six incompletions were drops.
• Los Angeles WR Puka Nacua had 11 targets for 130 yards against the Texans with a career-high 44% of his snaps aligned in the slot. Tennessee’s best cover CB is nickelback Roger McCreary, who conceded just 4.4 yards per target in week 1.
• Rams RG Kevin Dotson’s status is up in the air. Backup guard Beaux Limmer surrendered a sack last week, filling in for Dotson and Limmer would be in real trouble lined up across from Titans iDL Jeffery Simmons, who had a league-high 7 pressures in week 1.
• Tennessee’s 131 penalty yards last week were the most in the NFL, and I expect the Titans to be more buttoned-up at home on Sunday.
• Cam Ward struggled to connect with his receivers downfield. The Titans hit on just 1 of their 12 attempts with 10+ air yards in Denver. Tennessee’s receivers had 3 drops on such throws. I expect them to convert on a higher percentage of deep shots in the future.
• The question is whether Ward will have time to do so. Ward was pressured on 53% of his dropbacks and was sacked six times against the Broncos. The Rams have a top 5 defensive line according to our metrics and posted a 41% pressure rate in week 1 (6th).
• Titans right tackle JC Latham is out and his backup,  Olisaemeka Udoh, came in and surrendered a sack as well as a QB hit on just 11 pass blocking snaps. Latham is worth a half point over Udoh by our numbers.
• It will be extremely hot, with temperatures reaching 90°F or higher in Nashville on Sunday. There’s not a huge sample of these types of games, but 11 of 15 since 2000 have gone under due to increased fatigue, leading coaches to play call for fewer possessions.
• Our model favors the Rams by 4.8 with a predicted total of 45.5.