Game Analysis
New England (-10) vs NY JETS
New England’s offense struggled last time out, managing just 4.4 yards per play in Tennessee, but the bye week came at the right time and it looks like Tom Brady will have two of this most important weapons back in action. Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman will both be back in the lineup and starting offensive linemen Shaq Mason and Trent Brown are also both likely to return this week. The Patriots are still probably underrated on offense since year-to-date statistics take into account the first 4 games of the season without Edelman or big-play WR Josh Gordon and now they are complete as they’ve been all season. New England has gained 6.1 yards per play since week 5 and average 30.8 points per game, which could be even higher considering Brady has been unlucky to only complete only 29% of his 3rd down passes during that stretch.
It looks like Sam Darnold will be unavailable once again for the Jets so we’ll see Josh McCown under center after he gained just 3.1 yards per pass play versus Buffalo’s 8th-rated pass defense his first start of the season before the bye week. It won’t get any easier for McCown on Sunday as New England’s pass defense ranks 7th, but I do expect him to play better considering he was right at league-average last season with 6.1 yards per pass play. I do not think New York’s offense should be downgraded with Darnold out of the lineup.
Our model shows value on the Patriots, but the Jets apply to a 43-9 ATS bad team off a bye situation and an 88-33-3 ATS division revenge situation. I’ll pass.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.8
38.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.2%
49.2%
-
Sack Rate
4.2%
4.1%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.8%
24.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.2%
39.1%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.9
25.5
-
RB YPR
3.7
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
19.5%
20.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.1%
45.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
39.1%
45.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
64.1
-
Early Down Succ
53.3%
46.9%
-
Succ Rate
49.9%
47.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.7%
41.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
6.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.8
28.5
-
Run Ratio
42.9%
39.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.7
30.4
-
Game Control
2.9
-2.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.4
36.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.4%
47.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.3%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
5.3%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.8%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.1%
38.0%
-
NYPP
6.7
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.1
29.5
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
31.0%
27.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.9%
42.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.3%
42.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
60.5
66.4
-
Early Down Succ
42.1%
48.7%
-
Succ Rate
39.1%
45.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.7%
40.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
28.2
-
Run Ratio
44.9%
44.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.3
31.5
-
Game Control
-2.7
2.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
HOU |
27 – 20 W |
10.6 |
48.8% /
29.7% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
2.6% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.3 |
38.7% /
45.7% |
9.7% /
25.7% |
3.9 /
4.8 |
72 /
72 |
47.4% /
43.1% |
44.4% /
37.5% |
38.0% /
37.4% |
5.4 /
4.5 |
2.8% /
1.4% |
43.1% /
48.6% |
25.4 /
35.4 |
| 2 |
@JAC |
20 – 31 L |
-13.1 |
48.6% /
57.8% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.9 /
8.4 |
36.0% /
36.0% |
12.0% /
16.0% |
3.3 /
4.2 |
62 /
70 |
47.9% /
46.3% |
43.5% /
50.0% |
38.3% /
42.7% |
4.9 /
6.9 |
1.6% /
1.4% |
40.3% /
35.7% |
30.1 /
25.7 |
| 3 |
@DET |
10 – 26 L |
-8.1 |
42.9% /
61.1% |
7.1% /
2.8% |
3.8% /
2.9% |
4.3 /
7.1 |
57.9% /
45.5% |
21.1% /
21.2% |
4.7 /
4.8 |
47 /
69 |
56.8% /
54.5% |
48.9% /
53.6% |
19.1% /
36.7% |
4.4 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.4% /
47.8% |
26.4 /
30.2 |
| 4 |
MIA |
38 – 7 W |
19.6 |
42.9% /
33.3% |
0.0% /
7.4% |
5.7% /
4.0% |
7.8 /
4.3 |
34.9% /
11.1% |
18.6% /
38.9% |
4.1 /
3.1 |
78 /
45 |
34.5% /
21.2% |
38.5% /
24.4% |
45.1% /
20.9% |
5.8 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
2.2% |
55.1% /
40.0% |
32.0 /
29.5 |
| 5 |
IND |
38 – 24 W |
12.6 |
88.2% /
76.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.9% /
5.3% |
10.0 /
9.1 |
44.0% /
47.6% |
20.0% /
4.8% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
59 /
60 |
65.5% /
49.2% |
69.5% /
66.7% |
26.8% /
28.7% |
7.5 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
42.4% /
35.0% |
35.5 /
27.9 |
| 6 |
KC |
43 – 40 W |
5.3 |
48.6% /
50.0% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
8.8 /
9.8 |
64.1% /
70.6% |
15.4% /
17.6% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
76 /
53 |
60.0% /
59.5% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
44.9% /
55.4% |
6.6 /
8.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
51.3% /
32.1% |
30.6 /
39.9 |
| 7 |
@CHI |
38 – 31 W |
3.8 |
62.2% /
43.1% |
2.7% /
3.9% |
2.8% /
4.1% |
7.4 /
6.3 |
63.0% /
52.0% |
22.2% /
12.0% |
4.0 /
5.4 |
64 /
76 |
66.0% /
44.1% |
62.5% /
46.1% |
29.7% /
44.6% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
42.2% /
32.9% |
25.6 /
32.9 |
| 8 |
@BUF |
25 – 6 W |
6.6 |
54.3% /
36.4% |
4.3% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.8 /
6.5 |
33.3% /
40.0% |
18.5% /
35.0% |
2.9 /
2.4 |
73 /
64 |
52.7% /
43.5% |
46.6% /
37.5% |
35.7% /
46.4% |
5.3 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
37.0% /
31.3% |
28.2 /
29.3 |
| 9 |
GB |
31 – 17 W |
5.1 |
55.3% /
47.7% |
5.3% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
5.7 |
47.1% /
60.0% |
20.6% /
12.0% |
3.7 /
4.7 |
72 /
69 |
61.1% /
54.5% |
51.4% /
52.2% |
55.1% /
36.4% |
6.1 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
47.2% /
36.2% |
29.2 /
19.3 |
| 10 |
@TEN |
10 – 34 L |
-13.0 |
40.0% /
55.6% |
6.7% /
7.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
8.7 |
31.6% /
47.2% |
36.8% /
25.0% |
2.1 /
4.2 |
64 /
63 |
41.3% /
52.9% |
37.5% /
50.8% |
44.4% /
67.5% |
4.4 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.7% /
57.1% |
24.3 /
34.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DET |
48 – 17 W |
11.9 |
65.2% /
44.2% |
8.7% /
0.0% |
4.8% /
9.6% |
7.8 /
5.8 |
32.6% /
37.5% |
9.3% /
25.0% |
4.0 /
2.5 |
66 /
68 |
53.8% /
51.0% |
43.9% /
42.6% |
55.1% /
37.9% |
5.4 /
5.0 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
65.2% /
23.5% |
40.7 /
23.0 |
| 2 |
MIA |
12 – 20 L |
-9.2 |
43.2% /
44.4% |
6.8% /
14.8% |
4.9% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.5 |
26.3% /
52.9% |
36.8% /
26.5% |
2.2 /
4.1 |
63 /
61 |
39.6% /
55.8% |
38.1% /
49.2% |
50.3% /
36.2% |
5.7 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
3.3% |
30.2% /
55.7% |
24.1 /
34.4 |
| 3 |
@CLE |
17 – 21 L |
5.4 |
36.4% /
36.6% |
6.1% /
9.8% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
4.6 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
43.3% /
31.4% |
3.6 /
3.9 |
63 /
76 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
42.9% /
39.5% |
22.4% /
32.3% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
46.1% |
23.2 /
33.3 |
| 4 |
@JAC |
12 – 31 L |
-10.3 |
32.4% /
57.5% |
8.1% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
3.9 /
9.4 |
28.6% /
38.2% |
35.7% /
20.6% |
2.4 /
3.7 |
51 /
74 |
35.1% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
48.6% |
23.6% /
50.5% |
3.5 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.7% |
27.5% /
45.9% |
29.8 /
26.8 |
| 5 |
DEN |
34 – 16 W |
7.7 |
72.7% /
71.8% |
9.1% /
10.3% |
10.0% /
2.9% |
17.2 /
8.8 |
46.2% /
47.1% |
17.9% /
47.1% |
8.3 /
5.4 |
50 /
56 |
42.6% /
56.1% |
52.0% /
64.3% |
74.5% /
42.2% |
10.3 /
7.8 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
78.0% /
30.4% |
28.8 /
26.2 |
| 6 |
IND |
42 – 34 W |
6.3 |
67.7% /
46.5% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.4% /
7.0% |
8.6 /
7.0 |
23.1% /
60.9% |
28.2% /
17.4% |
2.8 /
5.5 |
70 /
66 |
48.0% /
54.7% |
42.9% /
51.5% |
41.9% /
32.5% |
5.4 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
55.7% /
34.8% |
40.5 /
32.7 |
| 7 |
MIN |
17 – 37 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% /
34.1% |
6.7% /
2.4% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
5.6 |
37.5% /
24.0% |
33.3% /
44.0% |
3.0 /
3.6 |
69 /
66 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
50.2% /
58.0% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
37.9% |
27.3 /
41.4 |
| 8 |
@CHI |
10 – 24 L |
-6.9 |
36.7% /
45.2% |
3.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
7.0 |
20.8% /
52.9% |
37.5% /
14.7% |
2.4 /
5.3 |
54 /
65 |
30.8% /
51.9% |
29.6% /
49.2% |
20.3% /
46.3% |
3.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
52.3% |
22.0 /
28.5 |
| 9 |
@MIA |
6 – 13 L |
-3.2 |
34.9% /
42.9% |
9.3% /
14.3% |
10.3% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
38.1% /
24.1% |
28.6% /
24.1% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
64 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.0% |
35.9% /
33.3% |
41.8% /
15.3% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.8% /
50.9% |
18.4 /
32.4 |
| 10 |
BUF |
10 – 41 L |
-20.8 |
37.8% /
48.1% |
8.1% /
3.7% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
3.1 /
8.9 |
55.6% /
47.9% |
38.9% /
18.8% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
55 /
75 |
52.5% /
49.1% |
43.6% /
48.0% |
37.2% /
53.0% |
3.6 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
64.0% |
28.5 /
36.8 |
New England Patriots
@ 
New York Jets