Game Analysis

BUFFALO (-9.5) vs Tennessee

Lean – Over (41)

• Josh Allen averaged 7.7 yppp in a win over the Jets last Monday night and Buffalo’s offense added a new weapon this week in WR Amari Cooper.
• Cooper is averaging 1.23 yards per route run fewer than he did last season due to drops and awful quarterback accuracy but Cooper’s underlying average of 2.7 yards of separation is his highest since 2018.
• Allen will need Cooper to step into a role right away with Buffalo’s other receiving options in tough matchups. Bills’ WR Khalil Shakir is averaging 11.9 yards per target (8th) but he will struggle on the inside across from nickelback Roger McCreary, who is conceding 0.75 yards per slot cover snap (2nd).
• Tennessee’s defense is conceding only a 35% success rate to opposing tight ends (3rd) and they will limit Buffalo’s tight ends, who have a 25% target share (8th-most).
• The Titans’ defense has a 66% two-high safety rate (5th-highest) which is unlikely to work against Allen, who is averaging 21% more yppp versus two-high than single-high safety shells this season (2nd).
• Tennessee WR Calvin Ridley somehow ended last week’s game with 0 receiving yards on 8 targets which is a feat no wide receiver has managed in the last 9 seasons. Ridley will not have an opportunity to turn it around on Sunday against Bills CB Christian Benford, who is allowing only 0.48 yards per cover snap (4th).
• Buffalo’s defense has the 2nd-highest Cover 4 rate, and they will shut down Will Levis as the Titans yppp versus Cover 4 is only 53% compared to other coverages.
• Tennessee’s right tackles are surrendering an 11% pressure rate, and they will struggle versus edge rusher Greg Rousseau, whose 23 pressures rank 12th.
• Bills DT Ed Oliver will likely be back in uniform this week and he will wreak havoc on the inside against LG Peter Skoronski, who ranks 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• Levis will have to negate the pass rush with the screen game. The Titans running backs have a 23% target share (3rd-most) and Buffalo’s defense surrenders 0.32 EPA/target to opposing RBs (27th).
• Our model favors the Bills by 11.6 points with a predicted total of 44.5 points. Buffalo does apply to a 15-44-1 big home favorite off a division win letdown situation but I still used the Bills in my spread pool.