Green Bay Packers @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Oct 19
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 471
Odds: Arizona Cardinals +7, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Green Bay (-7) over ARIZONA

  • I have conviction that Green Bay is the NFC’s best team, putting them between 5 and 6 points better than average.
  • Jacoby Brissett averaged 6.8 yppp last week, but it was against a Colts team without their top three cornerbacks. It will be a much more challenging game on Sunday versus a Packers defense allowing just a 44.6% dropback success rate (6th).
  • Furthermore, it could get worse for Brissett if the Cardinals are without Marvin Harrison, who is averaging 0.61 EPA/target (13th) and their best downfield threat. Harrison has 5 receptions with 20+ air yards (4th).
  • If Harrison can’t get through the concussion protocol, Arizona’s power rating should be around -3.5, and this game has to be at least Green Bay -7.
  • Our model favors the Packers by 7.6 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points.
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