Atlanta Falcons
@ 
San Francisco 49ers
Game Analysis
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Lean – SAN FRANCISCO (-1) over Atlanta
- Atlanta offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s McVay-style, condensed wide-zone/play-action system is designed to manipulate linebackers, but 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh’s structure is built to stay gap-sound and limit those boots and crossers with zone eyes. However, it seems likely to me the whole zone eyes concept falls apart without All-Pro LB Fred Warner on the field and San Francisco’s defense might struggle against RB Bijan Robinson, who is averaging 2.50 yards per route run (3rd).
- The 49ers defense also wants to drop seven into coverage with a 79% standard pass rush rate (2nd-highest), but the loss of edge rusher Nick Bosa makes it nearly impossible for San Francisco’s pass rush to get to the quarterback with four.
- I think the 49ers’ defense is likely one of the worst in the NFL, missing Warner and Bosa, who are worth 3.2 points combined according to our numbers.
- Kyle Shanahan’s wide-zone and motion sequencing manipulate Raheem Morris’s light boxes and conflict the second-level rules that rely on post-snap rotation. San Francisco’s offense is averaging 31% more yppp versus Cover 1 compared to other coverages (6th) and Atlanta’s defense leads the NFL with a 43% Cover 1 rate.
- The 49ers will have back All-Pro TE George Kittle, but San Francisco’s offense will once again be without Brock Purdy and WR Ricky Pearsall, who leads the team averaging 2.29 yards per route run.
- The Falcons are conceding -0.22 EPA/target to opposing running backs (7th), and they will limit Christian McCaffrey, who leads RBs with a 58% receiving success rate.
- Our model favors the 49ers by 0.1, with a predicted total of 48.9 points, but Atlanta applies to a very negative 29-92-3 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s upset win over the Bills.