Game Analysis

Note: The line has dropped to 4.5 points. The Saints are a Strong Opinion at +4.5.

1-Star Best Bet – *New Orleans (+5.5) over CHICAGO

• Ben Johnson’s scheme has been sound this year, but it hasn’t been a perfect coach-quarterback marriage like he had with Jared Goff. Caleb Williams’ 71.5% Expected Completion Percentage is the highest in the NFL, but he just hasn’t shown the accuracy to operate the offense (he’s completed just 61.6%).
• Williams has a 46.3% Off Target Rate (4th-worst) and the lack of ability to throw into tight windows has resulted in Chicago’s offense being 31st relatively against zone-coverage compared to man. Williams will struggle on Sunday as the Saints have an 85% zone-coverage rate (4th-highest).
• New Orleans’ edge defender Chase Young debuted last week with a 20% pressure rate, and he makes this Saints pass rush more dangerous because it reduces 36-year-old Cameron Jordan’s snap count, making him more effective when he is in the game. Young and Jordan will wreak havoc in this game as the Bears’ left tackle is a clear weakness with multiple starters combining to surrender 20 pressures this season.
• The Saints haven’t been winning games, and it’s kept folks off the scent that they are playing much better than their expected rating. Spencer Rattler and Kellen Moore have this offense 18th in success rate, and they are 21st in success rate on defense. They have not been 2.5 points worse than every other team, like the betting market priors expected.
• This total was bet over earlier in the week, but it’s becoming clear this game will have some of the worst weather conditions of the season.
• Chicago’s recent “hot” streak makes them ripe for an upset loss, as their 3 consecutive wins were the result of being +11 in turnover margin against the Cowboys (+4), Raiders (+3) and Commanders (+3). The last two of those wins were by just 1 point and those surely would have both been losses if the Bears weren’t so lucky with turnovers (they were outgained by a total of 46 yards in those 3 wins).
• Teams that are favored after getting 11 or more defensive turnovers in the previous 3 games are just 56-100-6 ATS and the Saints apply to a 53-6-1 ATS subset of a 200-94-6 ATS contrary angle. The Saints get my highest technical (i.e. situational) analysis rating, and such games have been 55.1% over many years.
• Our model favors the Bears by 6 points but the situation is strongly in favor of the Saints, and I like the matchups.

New Orleans is a 1-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more (Strong Opinion at +4.5).