Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Dallas (+11) over PHILADELPHIA

Lean – Over (42.5)

There are a ton of players expected to be back for the two most-injured offensive units in the league this week. The Eagles activated TE Dallas Goedert, T Jason Peters, and WR Jalen Reagor. However, Pro Bowl RT Lane Johnson will not play despite practicing some this week. Our numbers have those players worth 1.5 points to Philadelphia’s offense even with Johnson still out. Dallas will get All-Pro RG Zack Martin and starting center Joe Looney back on the offensive line that’s been riddled with injuries. The Cowboys will have three of five starters on the offensive line instead of just one like they did last week. However, the big unknown here is Ben DiNucci getting the start under center after Andy Dalton exited their previous game with a concussion.

DiNucci was drafted in the 7th round and he wasn’t good in college, rating at 0.8 yppp worse than an average FBS QB in his one season at Pitt. DiNucci does have some mobility with 241 rushing yards in 7.5 college games and I expect he’ll try to run if he’s unsure what to do. We have DiNucci as 10 points worse than Dak Prescott, but there is still value on the Over, even with that large of an adjustment. The market is down on the Dallas offense after averaging 3.5 yppl and 6.5 points per game the last two weeks, but that level is unsustainably bad even with DiNucci at the helm. The Eagles have the 31st-ranked rush defense, which should allow Zeke Elliott to provide some support for his rookie QB behind a better offensive line than the Cowboys have had recently.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s offense should score at will versus the Cowboys. Travis Fulgham is averaging 2.51 yards per route run (9th) and he will expose CB Trevon Diggs on the outside. Diggs is one of two cornerbacks to already have allowed more than 400 receiving yards this season. Carson Wentz leads the NFL in deep passing attempts and the Dallas defense has surrendered a league-high six 25+ yard passing TDs thus far. Eagles’ backup RB Boston Scott is not a downgrade from Miles Sanders. Scott is avoiding more tackles per rush and averaging more receiving yards per route run, including the game-winning touchdown last Thursday night.

Even with the huge negative adjustment for NiNucci, the model favors the Eagles by only 7.8 points, with a predicted total of 45.5 points, and Dallas applies to a 51-9 ATS contrary situation that plays on big road underdogs with horrible spread records season to date.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cowboys
Eagles

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 50.3 38.0
Succ Pass Plays 52.6% 50.3%
Sack Rate 4.2% 4.9%
Int Rate 1.2% 1.1%
Deep Pass Rate 16.5% 21.0%
Big Pass Yards 46.3% 50.8%
NYPP 7.5 7.4

Rush

Rush Plays 26.3 33.3
RB YPR 3.6 3.8
Stuff Rate 12.8% 17.7%
Succ Rush Plays 55.5% 45.1%
Big Rush Yards 25.9% 27.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.9

Game

All Snaps 76.7 71.3
Early Down Succ 57.1% 48.2%
Succ Rate 53.9% 48.5%
Big Yards Rate 45.0% 43.5%
Yards Per Play 6.4 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 20.4 28.6
Run Ratio 34.6% 46.6%
Starting Field Pos 23.4 34.2
Game Control -6.9 6.9

Points 29.3 32.3

PHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 47.7 38.0
Succ Pass Plays 38.8% 50.4%
Sack Rate 7.3% 9.3%
Int Rate 4.6% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 19.6% 21.0%
Big Pass Yards 38.3% 31.5%
NYPP 4.6 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 26.3 31.0
RB YPR 4.1 3.1
Stuff Rate 13.4% 25.6%
Succ Rush Plays 54.6% 44.7%
Big Rush Yards 32.8% 40.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.3 3.3

Game

All Snaps 74.0 69.0
Early Down Succ 45.0% 51.6%
Succ Rate 44.9% 47.6%
Big Yards Rate 38.2% 34.5%
Yards Per Play 4.5 4.8
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.2 27.0
Run Ratio 35.0% 45.1%
Starting Field Pos 26.1 33.9
Game Control -1.4 1.4

Points 19.7 29.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LA	17 – 20 L	-3.4	52.4% / 56.3%	7.1% / 3.1%	0.0% / 3.2%	5.8 / 8.4	59.3% / 57.5%	11.1% / 12.5%	5.0 / 3.8	69 / 72	63.0% / 57.7%	55.1% / 56.9%	30.8% / 40.3%	5.5 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	39.1% / 55.6%	27.1 / 29.0
2	ATL	40 – 39 W	-12.6	58.0% / 44.7%	2.0% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.9 / 7.0	64.5% / 47.1%	12.9% / 17.6%	4.0 / 3.3	81 / 72	63.1% / 43.4%	60.5% / 45.8%	46.1% / 38.2%	7.0 / 5.3	3.7% / 0.0%	38.3% / 47.2%	24.4 / 40.8
3	@SEA	31 – 38 L	-4.7	47.5% / 50.0%	3.4% / 9.1%	3.5% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.7	42.9% / 30.8%	14.3% / 23.1%	2.9 / 4.5	80 / 70	45.2% / 43.6%	46.3% / 42.9%	58.0% / 51.9%	6.5 / 5.9	1.3% / 1.4%	26.3% / 37.1%	18.9 / 32.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@WAS	17 – 27 L	5.1	32.0% / 41.2%	16.0% / 8.8%	4.8% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.7	35.3% / 36.1%	23.5% / 30.6%	3.4 / 2.2	67 / 70	33.3% / 42.9%	32.8% / 38.6%	61.1% / 25.1%	4.0 / 3.4	1.5% / 0.0%	25.4% / 51.4%	24.7 / 40.0
2	LA	19 – 37 L	-9.4	46.5% / 67.9%	0.0% / 3.6%	4.7% / 0.0%	5.6 / 9.2	73.1% / 59.0%	0.0% / 12.8%	4.7 / 4.9	69 / 67	57.1% / 65.4%	56.5% / 62.7%	17.1% / 52.8%	5.3 / 6.7	1.4% / 1.5%	37.7% / 58.2%	29.1 / 31.6
3	CIN	23 – 23 T	0.2	38.0% / 42.3%	6.0% / 15.4%	4.3% / 0.0%	4.1 / 4.9	55.6% / 38.9%	16.7% / 33.3%	4.9 / 2.7	86 / 70	44.6% / 46.4%	45.3% / 41.4%	36.5% / 25.7%	4.4 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	41.9% / 25.7%	24.6 / 30.2

Dallas Cowboys @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Nov 1

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis