Game Analysis

Lean – ARIZONA (+2.5) over Jacksonville

• Jacoby Brissett averaged 7.9 yppp in Arizona’s first game without WR Marvin Harrison. I’m making an adjustment for the loss of Harrison, but clearly the offense wasn’t the Cardinals’ problem last week against the 49ers, losing 22-41.
• Arizona’s defense was already without CB Will Johnson, and nickelback Garrett Williams got knocked out of last week’s game. Johnson and Williams should be back on the field for this game, and the pair is allowing 0.91 yards per cover snap compared to backups Denzel Burke and Kei’Trel Clark surrendering 1.21 yards per cover snap.
• Arizona’s defense is conceding just 5.6 yppp (9th), and I’m not expecting fireworks from Trevor Lawrence even if TE Brenton Strange and WR Brian Thomas are back reintegrating themselves into the offense. Lawrence is averaging 0.01 EPA/play (26th).
• Jacksonville nickelback Jourdan Lewis is conceding 1.06 yards per cover snap in the slot (9th), but he is banged up, as well as the other starting cornerbacks, Greg Newsome and Jarrian Jones. Meanwhile, backup CB Travis Hunter is on IR. The Jaguars might have Lewis, Newsome, and Jones on the field, but none of them are at full capacity.
• Our model makes Jacksonville a 1.9-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, and the Jags apply to a 132-214-9 ATS situation.