Game Analysis

Strong Opinion-  KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over Indianapolis

Lean – Over (49.5)

• The Chiefs’ offense has struggled to win close games, but the underlying metrics show there isn’t anything wrong, and Patrick Mahomes will likely improve in one-score games. Kansas City’s offense is scoring on 49% of their drives, actually higher than they have in the last three seasons (all Super Bowl appearances).
• The Indianapolis defense will likely get back CB Charvarius Ward (concussion), but the Colts are without DT DeForest Buckner, who has a 12.0% pressure rate compared to backup Adetomiwa Adebawore’s 9.1% pressure rate.
• Matchups are working in both directions for the Indianapolis offense. The Colts have a 33% play action rate (3rd-highest) and TE Tyler Warren is averaging 0.46 EPA/target (5th).
• Daniel Jones will want to use those play-action RPOs to get the ball to Warren, as the Chiefs defense is allowing league-high 53% more yards per attempt against play action compared to standard dropbacks, and Kansas City’s defense is surrendering a 62% success rate to opposing tight ends (28th).
• However, Indianapolis head coach Shan Steichen’s offense favors verticals and seams, which Cover 4 neutralizes, and the Chiefs have the 3rd-highest Cover 4 rate. The Colts rank 29th relatively against Cover 4 compared to other coverages.
• Our model makes Kansas City a 6.1-point favorite, with a predicted total of 52.3 points, and the Chiefs are historically good after a loss (24-8 ATS up to -9).

Kansas City is a Strong Opinion at -3.5 to -115 odds.