Game Analysis

Lean – Cleveland (+3.5) at LAS VEGAS

• Shedeur Sanders averaged 1.1 yppp last week in 18 dropbacks after coming into the game for Dillon Gabriel. Cleveland’s offense was without both starting tackles when Sanders was in the game, and Baltimore’s defense teed off.
• Browns’ starting tackles Cam Robinson and Jack Conklin should be back on the field this week. Robinson and Conklin are allowing a 10.6% pressure rate compared to Cleveland’s backup tackles, KT Leveston and Cornelius Lucas, surrendering a 13.5% pressure rate.
• I expect Sanders to be better in this game with his starting tackles and a week to prepare as the starter versus the Raiders’ defense, rated 3 points worse than the Ravens’ defense according to the betting market.
• Meanwhile, Geno Smith will not be getting the same relief on his offensive line. Smith was pressured on a league-high 20 dropbacks in week 11 in his first game without both LT Kolton Miller and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson. Backup Will Putnam entered the lineup and played all 60 snaps at center and surrendered 3 sacks.
• Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 15.0 sacks and will wreak havoc against backup LT Stone Forsythe, who ranks 59th in pass blocking efficiency out of 62 qualifying tackles.
• Las Vegas TE Brock Bowers is gaining 1.99 yards per route run (2nd), but he will struggle against Cleveland’s defense conceding 0.04 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (4th).
• We favor the Raiders by 3.2 points, with a predicted total of 36.2 points, and Vegas applies to a negative 28-92-3 ATS situation.