College Football

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My College Football Best Bets are 2502-2047-93 (55.0%) on a Star Basis, including season win totals, and the Strong Opinions (0.5 Star plays) are a profitable 820-708-19 since 1999

Weekly an season recap below.

2018-2025 College Football Results: 

Best Bets: 298-238-17 (55.6%) – 55.0% over 38 Years

Strong Opinions: 167-140-3 (54.4%)

College Week 6 and Season Recap

The Week 6 Best Bets were 3-1 for +1.9 Stars and the Strong Opinions were 1-1 for -0.05 Stars. It was also a good day for the season win total bets.

For the season the College Best Bets are now 13-11 (17-14 on a Star Basis for +1.5 Stars) and the Strong Opinions are 6-4 for +0.725 Stars (0.5 Stars each on the Strong Opinions). I am also +1.0 Stars on the Season Win Total bets that have been decided.

Week 6 Best Bets

The 1-Star Best Bet on South Florida (-27) won. South Florida jumped out to a 26-0 early lead and were on their way to being up 33-0 when they fumbled the ball away inside the 10-yard line. Part of the reason I made this play was because Grayson Loftis was getting the start at quarterback for Charlotte. Loftis had -10 yards on 12 pass plays but was replaced and the backup ignited Charlotte’s offense. USF eventually covered on a late touchdown with 47 seconds remaining in the game, which put them up by 28 points for a 1-point cover (I realize that was a push for those of you that didn’t get the bet in as it was being released). I’ve had 2 late backdoor losses on Best Bets this season so I’m not apologizing for getting a garbage time win on a late TD. USF outgained Charlotte by 352 yards and the stats project a 30-point win. This was obviously a toss-up game that could have gone either way. My record on bets decided by less than 7 points started at 1-6 this season but luck is starting to even out for us.

The 1-Star Best Bet on Kansas State (+6.5) won, as the Wildcats lost 34-35 on a late field goal. The Wildcats covered the spread despite giving up a 66-yard interception return to Baylor, and they outgained the Bears by 68 total yards (although that difference would have been less if they had the one extra possession).

The 1-Star Best Bet on Western Michigan (-12.5) won, as the Broncos overcame a -2 fumble margin to beat UMass 21-3 with a 122 total yards edge.

The 1-Star Best Bet Team Total on Florida Under 17.5 lost, as the Gators scored 29 points in a win over Texas.

The Strong Opinions were 1-1 with a loss on the BYU-West Virginia Under and a win on Appalachian State.

Season Win Total Update:

We already have a winner, as Mississippi State (Over 3.5 wins). This week was good, as UTSA (Under 7.5 wins) lost as a favorite at Temple to fall to 2-3. We nearly had another great result, but Buffalo kicked a 50-yard FG as time expired (a career long for the 3rd year kicker) and then won by 1 in OT when Eastern Michigan’s QB fumbled the ball without being touched while going for a 2-point conversion to win the game. Buffalo is still just 3-3 without a quality win, as they beat a horrible St. Francis PA team and beat Kent State by just 3 points and EMU by just 1 point. It’s likely that Buffalo loses at least 2 more games.

We’re ahead of schedule on Old Dominion Over 5.5 wins, UTSA Under 7.5 Wins, Utah State Over 4.5 wins, Buffalo Under 7.5 wins, Southern Miss Over 5.5 wins and on Jacksonville State Under 6 Wins (they are now 1-2 on toss-up games). The only win total that is behind schedule is the Oregon Under 10.5 wins, although it’s still possible that they could lose 2 Big 10 games.

The Free Analysis page Leans are now 1056-872-35 all-time.

The Leans were 4-7 in week 6 and are now 35-38 for the season.

The week 6 sides overall were 22-21 with the Leans (i.e 4 or more point differences between my predicted margin and the line) going 2-5. The totals were 24-20 overall, including 2-2 on specified Leans.

For the season the record on all sides is 116-108-1 ATS, including 27-27 on Leans, and the record on all totals this season is 124-113 with the specified Leans being 8-11.

The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 3258-3034-111 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game 12-plus years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line (i.e Leans) are a profitable 974-819-34.

Totals on the Free pages are now 3078-2897-61 in the 12 seasons I’ve been tracking them. Starting in 2022 I have chosen selected Leans on totals and those are now 82-53-1 in 3-plus seasons.

The spreads posted are the consensus lines at the time I posted each analysis.

Check out this week’s College Football Free Analysis.