College Football

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My College Football Best Bets are 2427-1976-86 (55.1%) on a Star Basis, including season win totals, for +255.0 Stars Since 1999 and the Strong Opinions are a profitable 796-678-18.

Bowl and season recap below.

Bowl & Season College Football Recap

It was a frustrating bowl season with the Best Bets being just 1-5 (1-7 on a Star Basis for -6.7 Stars) while the record on all Bowl games was very good. The Strong Opinions were 3-0, the leans were 6-5-2, and the record picking every side is 25-12-2 (sides with any difference between my predicted margin and the line at the time I posted the analysis), which included the 0-2 on Best Bet sides. All totals are 19-20-1.

For the season the Best Bets were 35-33-2 for -9.7 Stars (with the 5-3 for -1.65 Stars on the win totals included) and the Strong Opinions were 23-15, which is very disappointing given that the College Best Bets were 40-21-2 in the 2022 season.

Part of the problem this season were some really undeserved losses on some higher rated plays early in the season. The Best Bets are -13.6 Stars on the undeserved wins and losses tally (just 2 undeserved/lucky wins against 4 undeserved losses and an undeserved push). Both lucky wins were been 1-Star Best Bets for a +4.2 Stars swing (+2 Stars instead of -2.2 Stars) but losing (or pushing) Best Bets because of turnovers in games we surely otherwise would have won easily has cost us 17.8 Stars (-8.8 Stars instead of +9 Stars).

Those 5 unlucky games were games that without a doubt would have won easily had our teams been just -1 in turnovers. I’m talking about 5 games in which our team outgained their opponents by an average of 159.2 yards, with an average line of -1.2 points, that the stats (with turnovers projected by passes defended differential) projected an average win margin of 17.0 points – yet all 5 failed to win due to being randomly negative in turnovers (-2 on average) with one having an onside kick recovered against them that led to the covering score.

My handicapping was pretty good this season and we should be +3.9 Stars instead of -9.7 Stars. It was a frustrating season but I’ve also had seasons in which I profited more than I should have due to good luck and hopefully we’ll be even in luck next season – which is all I need to win.

Thankfully, most of you also had the NFL service and the 2023 NFL Best Bets were 50-27-2 (Strong Opinions 40-37-2). I am disappointed for those of you that only signed up for College this past season but all Football Best Bets were 85-60-4 (59%) and all Strong Opinions are 63-52-2 (55%) so it’s been another great season – last year all Football Best Bets were 83-56-2 (60%) and all Strong Opinions were 62-50-2 (55%) with the College Best Bets carrying the load at 40-21-2.

Season Win Totals

The Season Win Total Best Bets ended the season at 5-3 for -1.65 Stars.

Eastern Michigan (1-Star under 7.5) is a winner, as the Eagles 6-6.  

Kansas (1-Star over 6) is a winner, as the Jayhawks went 8-4.

Buffalo (1-Star under 6.5) is a winner, as the Bulls went 3-9.  

Arizona (1-Star over 5) is a winner. The Wildcats went 9-3.

Troy (3-Stars under 8.5) is a loser, as the Trojans went 10-2.

New Mexico (1-Star over 3.5) is a winner, as the Lobos went 4-8.

San Jose State (2-Stars under 5.5 wins) is a loser, as the Spartans went 7-5.

Central Michigan (1-Star over 5.5 wins) is a loser, as the Chippewas were 5-7.

2022 College Football Recap

2022 Best Bets: 40-21-2 for +28.45 Stars

For the season the game Best Bets were 32-18-2 for +20.75 Stars (13-4-2 on 2-Stars, 19-14 on 1-Stars) and the 2022 season win totals ended up 8-3 for +7.7 Stars. The Strong Opinions were 22-17. The leans on the Free Analysis page were 87-60-2 for the season and the Leans on the Bowl games were 10-5.

All Best Bets, including the season win totals, were a very profitable 40-21-2 for +28.45 Stars.

The Free Analysis page Leans were 6-5 in Week 13 (1-5 on Friday and 5-0 on Saturday) and are now 80-66-2 for the season after going 169-116-4 last 2 seasons. The sides with a 4 points or more differential from the line (i.e. the Leans) were 4-5 and the totals Leans were 2-0 (I counted the Temple Team Total Over Loss as a side since the total difference in my total prediction from the line was 9 points and the game did go over) and are 24-17 this season after going 29-8-1 last season.

The record of all Free Analysis sides was 16-32-1 ATS in week 13 and the totals were 36-16.

The record on all Free Analysis sides is now 2879-2690-100 ATS since 2013, which is very good picking nearly every game over 10-plus years. The Free Analysis sides in which my predicted margin was 4 points or more away from the line (i.e Leans) are a profitable 884-743-32. Totals on the Free pages are now 2673-2537-55 in the 9-plus seasons I’ve been tracking them. Starting in 2022 I choose selected Leans on totals and those are now 53-25-1.

The spreads posted are the consensus lines at the time I posted each analysis.

Check out this week’s College Football Free Analysis.