Game Analysis

Arizona (-7) vs INDIANAPOLIS

The Cardinals lost to the Lions by 12 on the road in week 1 but played better than the score line indicates. Arizona only scored a touchdown on 2 of 4 of their Redzone trips while allowing Detroit to score a touchdown on all three Redzone opportunities. The Cardinals also had four turnovers and one was returned for a Lion’s touchdown. The game should’ve been closer to even rather than a double-digit loss.

Arizona lost star running back David Johnson to a wrist injury that will cause him to miss 2-3 months. Johnson doesn’t make much of an impact in the running game – he averaged 0.01 adjEPA/rush while his teammates have averaged 0.04 adjEPA/rush last season. However, the loss of Johnson will likely affect the Cardinals passing game. Last season, Arizona led the NFL with 40.7 expected points added when targeting running backs. Johnson averaged 0.33 EPA/target while the other Cardinals running backs only averaged 0.06 EPA/target.

Carson Palmer finished top 5 in EPA/pass play (min 200 attempts) in 2014 & 2015 before finishing 21st last season. It was unclear in the preseason whether his dropoff was due to age or randomness. Optimists pointed to his 4th ranking air yards last season as a sign he hasn’t lost arm strength but he made several cringe worthy throws in week 1 against a bad Lions pass defense. It’s worth noting Palmer’s 2016 season was right on par with the rest of his career outside of 2014-2015 and now he’s on the wrong end of the aging curve. Without David Johnson as a trusty check-down option, Palmer could be in trouble moving forward.

The Colts played poorly against the Rams in week 1 but not as bad as their -37 point differential indicates. Indianapolis was hurt by three turnovers – two of which were returned for Rams touchdowns.

Jacoby Brissett’s play was promising when he took over for Scott Tolzien in the 4th quarter even though he was working with a limited playbook after just being acquired the previous week. He led the Colts’ only touchdown drive and is expected to be the week 2 starter. Brissett had an average EPA per pass play of +0.07 in 55 dropbacks filling in for Tom Brady at the beginning of last season in New England and, while I don’t expect that level of efficiency with a less talented supporting cast and less innovative coaching staff, he should put up decent numbers with another week to prepare – and is a better option than Tolzien. I’ll stay away from this game.