New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – New England (-5) over TAMPA BAY

The Patriots struggles continued this past week with a 30-33 home loss to the previously punchless Panthers. New England has now given up 33 or more points in 3 of their 4 games this season, the same amount as the previous four years combined. However, history suggests that is it foolish to give up on the Patriots, particularly after a loss. The Patriots are an incredible 40-6 straight up and 35-11 ATS in regular season games following a loss going back to Tom Brady’s first season and that includes an even more amazing 28-1 ATS record when the Pats are not laying more than 6 points.

I understand that this New England teams looks different because their defense has been so bad, but they did win 36-20 at New Orleans in week 2 after losing their opener to Kansas City 27-42 and there have been 4 occasions when the Patriots have been coming off a loss and enter the game with an average points allowed of 28 points or more. Bill Belichick’s team is 4-0 ATS in those games while allowing an average of 13.3 points. So, the fact that New England’s defense has been bad so far doesn’t mean it will be bad going forward. In fact, since 2010, the Patriots are 30-9-1 ATS in games they enter having allowed an average of 21 points or more for the season-to-date when they are not favored by more than 7 points (9-0 ATS after a loss) – compared to 23-16-2 ATS when not laying more than 7 points when they enter a game with a defensive points allowed average of less than 21 points. Historically, the worse the Patriots’ defense has been playing the more underrated they have actually been. The model favors the Patriots by 5 points (3.5 points with Rob Gronkowski now listed a expected to miss), so there is no line value, but I’ll lean with New England based on their long history of resiliency.

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Team Stats
Game Log

Patriots
Buccaneers

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 42.0 37.3
Succ Pass Plays 50.6% 55.4%
Sack Rate 7.8% 5.6%
Int Rate 0.0% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 27.3% 24.1%
Big Pass Yards 51.2% 51.4%
NYPP 7.9 8.8

Rush

Rush Plays 26.5 27.8
RB YPR 3.6 4.7
Stuff Rate 24.7% 14.3%
Succ Rush Plays 55.1% 49.4%
Big Rush Yards 22.9% 35.6%
Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.8

Game

All Snaps 68.5 65.0
Early Down Succ 54.6% 56.8%
Succ Rate 52.3% 52.8%
Big Yards Rate 45.6% 47.2%
Yards Per Play 6.2 7.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.9 27.1
Run Ratio 38.2% 42.5%
Starting Field Pos 27.5 26.0
Game Control 3.8 -3.8

Points 32.3 32.0

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	KC	27 – 42 L	1.8	33.3% / 60.5%	7.7% / 7.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.3 / 9.3	50.0% / 42.4%	25.0% / 9.1%	3.5 / 5.7	75 / 71	46.4% / 63.5%	41.3% / 52.1%	54.8% / 53.7%	5.0 / 7.6	0.0% / 1.4%	48.0% / 46.5%	27.8 / 25.5
2	@NO	36 – 20 W	14.2	61.0% / 51.1%	4.9% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.6 / 7.7	51.6% / 47.1%	22.6% / 11.8%	3.8 / 4.8	72 / 62	58.3% / 54.2%	56.9% / 50.0%	53.2% / 48.3%	7.7 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 27.4%	27.5 / 27.9
3	HOU	36 – 33 W	1.2	47.5% / 48.6%	12.5% / 5.7%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.4 / 8.3	45.0% / 56.3%	30.0% / 15.6%	3.0 / 3.9	60 / 67	46.8% / 54.7%	46.7% / 52.2%	52.3% / 38.8%	6.6 / 6.2	1.7% / 0.0%	33.3% / 47.8%	28.8 / 24.0
4	CAR	30 – 33 L	-1.9	60.4% / 61.3%	6.3% / 6.5%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.1 / 9.8	73.7% / 51.7%	21.1% / 20.7%	4.2 / 4.8	67 / 60	66.7% / 54.9%	64.2% / 56.7%	22.0% / 48.0%	5.6 / 7.4	0.0% / 1.7%	28.4% / 48.3%	26.1 / 26.7

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
2	CHI	29 – 7 W	18.1	48.5% / 56.5%	6.1% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	5.9 / 6.3	36.1% / 25.0%	11.1% / 43.8%	3.3 / 1.3	69 / 62	41.2% / 50.0%	42.0% / 48.4%	14.4% / 6.5%	4.5 / 5.0	1.4% / 3.2%	52.2% / 25.8%	31.1 / 27.0
3	@MIN	17 – 34 L	-13.1	57.1% / 63.6%	4.8% / 0.0%	7.5% / 0.0%	7.5 / 11.2	44.4% / 37.5%	11.1% / 12.5%	2.9 / 3.2	51 / 73	60.0% / 52.7%	54.9% / 49.3%	16.7% / 45.3%	6.7 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	17.6% / 54.8%	24.8 / 27.3
4	NYG	25 – 23 W	5.2	48.7% / 49.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 5.9	42.3% / 35.7%	19.2% / 28.6%	4.3 / 3.3	65 / 77	56.3% / 44.1%	46.2% / 44.2%	57.3% / 27.4%	6.7 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	40.0% / 36.4%	29.9 / 27.7

New England Patriots @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thu, Oct 5

5:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis

Football Best Bets 25-11 This Season