Cleveland Browns @ Dallas Cowboys Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (56) – DALLAS (-4.5) vs Cleveland

The Cowboys have run just seven offensive snaps with the lead so far through three weeks, and being in catch-up mode is why they are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL and why Dak Prescott is on pace to throw for 6000 passing yards this season. In contrast, the Browns have run the ball at the highest rate in the NFL and lead the league in runs of 10 or more yards through three weeks with 19. The Dallas rush defense ranks 4th and Baker Mayfield will need to throw the ball to exploit the Cowboys on Sunday.

Cowboys CB Jourdan Lewis is conceding a league-low 0.30 yards per cover snap in the slot and should limit Jarvis Landry on the inside. However, if ever there was a game for Odell Beckham to get going, this would be it. Beckham is averaging a career-low 7.0 yards per target but the Dallas secondary, outside of their nickelback (Lewis) has been a mess. CB Trevon Diggs is surrendering 1.80 yards per cover snap (62nd out of 72 qualifiers) and Beckham should finally have a good game.

Both quarterbacks are likely to be under pressure in this matchup. Cowboys edge rusher Aldon Smith had 8 pressures and 3 sacks last Sunday, leading all defenders in week 3. Smith should cause problems for rookie LT Jedrick Wills, who has already surrendered 2 sacks in the first 3 weeks. Meanwhile, Dallas is still likely going to be without their two starting tackles (Smith and Collins) and Myles Garret ranks 5th in pass-rushing efficiency of the edge.

Ezekiel Elliott is not off to a great start in 2020. Elliott played 80 of 82 snaps last week but had just 58 yards and he had a team-high 12 targets but he only caught half of those for 24 yards. Cleveland’s rush defense ranks 2nd and it could be another rough outing for Elliott. However, Dak Prescott could catch a break with Denzel Ward (0.76 yards allowed per cover snap, 13th) nursing a groin injury (check status).

Our model favors the Cowboys by 4.3 with a predicted total of 54.9 and I’ll lean under based on some value and matchups that should keep this game lower scoring than expected.

Team Stats
Game Log

Browns
Cowboys

CLE

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.7 44.0
Succ Pass Plays 46.8% 48.5%
Sack Rate 4.3% 6.4%
Int Rate 2.3% 2.7%
Deep Pass Rate 20.3% 17.3%
Big Pass Yards 27.4% 32.2%
NYPP 6.4 6.4

Rush

Rush Plays 33.0 25.3
RB YPR 5.2 3.5
Stuff Rate 19.0% 21.8%
Succ Rush Plays 50.5% 50.8%
Big Rush Yards 60.1% 28.8%
Yards Per Rush 5.2 3.7

Game

All Snaps 62.7 69.3
Early Down Succ 51.9% 47.1%
Succ Rate 48.2% 48.0%
Big Yards Rate 43.9% 31.4%
Yards Per Play 5.6 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 2.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.8 26.5
Run Ratio 53.2% 38.2%
Starting Field Pos 33.2 32.0
Game Control -2.2 2.2

Points 25.0 29.3

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 50.3 38.0
Succ Pass Plays 52.6% 50.3%
Sack Rate 4.2% 4.9%
Int Rate 1.2% 1.1%
Deep Pass Rate 16.5% 21.0%
Big Pass Yards 46.3% 50.8%
NYPP 7.5 7.4

Rush

Rush Plays 26.3 33.3
RB YPR 3.6 3.8
Stuff Rate 12.8% 17.7%
Succ Rush Plays 55.5% 45.1%
Big Rush Yards 25.9% 27.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.9

Game

All Snaps 76.7 71.3
Early Down Succ 57.1% 48.2%
Succ Rate 53.9% 48.5%
Big Yards Rate 45.0% 43.5%
Yards Per Play 6.4 5.7
Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 20.4 28.6
Run Ratio 34.6% 46.6%
Starting Field Pos 23.4 34.2
Game Control -6.9 6.9

Points 29.3 32.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@BAL	6 – 38 L	-16.2	36.6% / 57.1%	4.9% / 7.1%	2.6% / 0.0%	4.1 / 9.6	48.1% / 40.0%	18.5% / 26.7%	5.1 / 3.6	68 / 58	48.1% / 47.8%	41.2% / 48.3%	49.3% / 50.4%	4.5 / 6.5	2.9% / 1.7%	39.7% / 51.7%	21.3 / 43.8
2	CIN	35 – 30 W	7.1	47.8% / 48.4%	0.0% / 4.7%	4.3% / 0.0%	9.5 / 4.5	60.0% / 62.5%	11.4% / 25.0%	6.1 / 2.8	58 / 88	56.5% / 51.6%	55.2% / 52.3%	54.6% / 6.5%	7.5 / 4.0	0.0% / 1.1%	60.3% / 27.3%	38.3 / 25.3
3	WAS	34 – 20 W	2.4	56.0% / 40.0%	8.0% / 7.5%	0.0% / 8.1%	5.7 / 5.2	43.2% / 50.0%	27.0% / 13.6%	4.3 / 4.7	62 / 62	51.1% / 42.0%	48.4% / 43.5%	27.7% / 37.2%	4.8 / 5.0	0.0% / 3.2%	59.7% / 35.5%	40.0 / 26.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LA	17 – 20 L	-3.4	52.4% / 56.3%	7.1% / 3.1%	0.0% / 3.2%	5.8 / 8.4	59.3% / 57.5%	11.1% / 12.5%	5.0 / 3.8	69 / 72	63.0% / 57.7%	55.1% / 56.9%	30.8% / 40.3%	5.5 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	39.1% / 55.6%	27.1 / 29.0
2	ATL	40 – 39 W	-12.6	58.0% / 44.7%	2.0% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.9 / 7.0	64.5% / 47.1%	12.9% / 17.6%	4.0 / 3.3	81 / 72	63.1% / 43.4%	60.5% / 45.8%	46.1% / 38.2%	7.0 / 5.3	3.7% / 0.0%	38.3% / 47.2%	24.4 / 40.8
3	@SEA	31 – 38 L	-4.7	47.5% / 50.0%	3.4% / 9.1%	3.5% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.7	42.9% / 30.8%	14.3% / 23.1%	2.9 / 4.5	80 / 70	45.2% / 43.6%	46.3% / 42.9%	58.0% / 51.9%	6.5 / 5.9	1.3% / 1.4%	26.3% / 37.1%	18.9 / 32.9

Cleveland Browns @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Oct 4

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis