Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *KANSAS CITY (-1.5) over Buffalo

Strong Opinion – James Cook (Buff) Over 13.5 (-120) Receiving Yards to -130

Strong Opinion – Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (KC) Over 41 Receiving Yards to 43

Strong Opinion – Patrick Mahomes (KC) Over 256.5 Passing Yards to 261

• The Bills are coming off the worst yards-per-play differential in a playoff win since 2000, as the Ravens outgained them by 2.7 yppl. Buffalo only won last week due to Baltimore losing 37% in net win probability on turnovers.
• We’ve seen plenty of Bills’ rosters better than this one in the Josh Allen era as evidenced by them closing as underdogs last week. Before the season, the betting markets had Kansas City valued 2 points better than Buffalo. The Chiefs weren’t that impressive in point differential but they are 16-1 straight up with Mahomes at quarterback and had a +5.5% net success rate this year compared to the Bills +3.8% success rate.
• Despite KC valued as the better team before the season, having a better record and better success rate differential, the betting markets are valuing Buffalo 1-2 points better than Kansas City depending on how much home-field advantage you put on this game. Note: historically home field advantage is higher in the Conference Championship Round than any other week of the season.
• I think these teams are equal at minimum and Kansas City should be favored by a field goal. You could make an argument the Chiefs should be rated higher in the playoffs given the 16-3 postseason record with Patrick Mahomes and they’ve shown the ability to step up in class. Mahomes is 17-3 ATS from -2 to underdog because Andy Reid saves part of the playbook for the impact games and Mahomes is more likely to use his legs.
• Josh Allen averaged only 2.9 air yards per attempt, a season-low 2.43 second time to throw, and just 5.5 yppp against the Ravens.
• Allen will be forced to get the fast again this week as the shortcoming is at guard and center. The Bills’ interior offensive line is responsible for a league-high 60% of the allowed pressures and they will struggle against DT Chris Jones, who ranked 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency and had 7 pressures in week 11 versus Buffalo.
• Bills’ WR Khalil Shakir had a 57% success rate (13th) and ranks 17th among wide receivers in target rate when the defense generates pressure. Shakir will be the focal point of the offense when lined up across from Kansas City CB Chamarri Conner, who surrendered 1.52 yards per cover snap in the slot ranking 48th out of 50 qualifying nickelbacks. A league-high 43% of receptions Kansas City’s defense allowed were to slot receivers and Conner is the Chiefs’ worst cornerback with Jaylen Watson back on the field.
• Kansas City CB Trent McDuffie conceded just 1.60 yards per route run to Texans wide receiver Nico Collins last week. I believe McDuffie will split his snaps across from Bills WRs Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper.
• Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo called 15% more zone coverage versus in Buffalo than he did the rest of the season and was particularly effective with zone blitzes, limiting Allen to 28 yards on 8 dropbacks. I expect more zone blitzing in this game from Spagnuolo as it has the added benefit of containing Allen as a scrambler.
• The Bills have used six offensive linemen on 20+% of offensive snaps in consecutive weeks and they have a 53% rush success rate in the playoffs, but I expect Kansas City’s defense to limit Buffalo’s explosiveness on the ground. The Chiefs are conceding only 4.2 yards per rush (8th) and allowed just 8 runs of 20+ yards this season (5th).
• The Chiefs conceded just 4.7 yppl in last year’s playoff game versus the Bills when Buffalo’s offense used the heavy strategy even more with an extra OL on the field on 47% of rushing attempts.
• Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce accounted for 66% of Mahomes passing yards last week. Kelce has another gear in the postseason – averaging 1.7 more receptions and 18.0 more yards per game throughout his career.
• The Chiefs did not want to test Houston’s outside cornerbacks Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter last week, but I expect Kansas City WRs DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster to be more involved on Sunday as the Bills surrendered a 55% success rate to opposing wide receivers this year (31st).
• Furthermore, Buffalo’s secondary is banged up. I expect nickelback Taron Johnson, safety Taylor Rapp, and cornerback Christian Benford to suit up but the trio is unlikely to be operating at full capacity. Johnson has a partial shoulder dislocation, Rapp was carted off the field last week with a hip injury, and Benford has a concussion which historically results in a dip in performance the following week. If it were the regular season, Benford would almost certainly be sitting.
• The Bills were able to limit the Chiefs to 5.0 yppl in week 11 because they didn’t fall into Kansas City’s trap like most teams. The Chiefs use heavy personnel at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL to get opposing defenses into base personnel where Kansas City’s passing attack is most effective. Buffalo did not play a single snap in base against the Chiefs this year even though Kansas City had a 43% rate of 12 personnel. I do not believe this strategy will be nearly as fruitful this time around for the Bills with nearly the entire secondary nursing something and the Chiefs will likely use lighter personnel this week.
• A player Buffalo’s defense did not have in the game against Kansas City was LB Matt Milano, who Sean McDermott likes to use as a blitz more often in the playoffs. Milano has 3 career postseason games with 4+ pressures, including last week.
• However, I expect the Bills pass rush to be contained as the Chiefs have solved the revolving door at left tackle. Kansas City’s offensive line ranks 9th in pass-blocking efficiency in the 4 weeks Joe Thuney has started at left tackle. The four games were against Houston twice, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh making it even more impressive considering those three defenses accounted for four of the top 20 edge rushers in pass-rushing efficiency this season.
• Mahomes had an average time to throw of 2.66 seconds in those 4 games which isn’t much quicker than his 2.78-second time to throw in the first 14 weeks and I do not think the offensive line shuffle is hampering this playbook too much even if they might have to use a couple more chips per game.
• Mahomes had just a 2.3% turnover-worthy play rate this season (6th) and I do not expect him to throw 2 interceptions again like he did in the last game versus the Bills. The turnovers cost Kansas City the game as they had a 51% success rate compared to Buffalo’s 45% success rate in week 11.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 3.7 points, with a predicted total of 50.9 points and KC applies to a 33-13 ATS conference championship game situation while the Bills apply to a 31-88-2 situation that is 4-22 ATS in the postseason.

Kansas City is a 1-Star Best Bet at -2.5 or less.