Game Analysis

Lean – PHILADELPHIA (-6) over Washington

Strong Opinion – Jalen Hurts (Phil) Over 192 Passing Yards to 196

Strong Opinion – Dyami Brown (Wash) Under 3.5 Receptions (-130) to (-140)

• Jayden Daniels will become the 8th rookie quarterback to play in the Conference Championship and none of the previous seven made it to the Super Bowl.
• The Eagles’ defense allowed -0.19 EPA/rush this season (2nd) and Washington’s only path to winning this game rests on Daniels’ shoulders, but his two main options in the passing game face difficult matchups.
• Commanders WR Terry McLaurin leads the NFL averaging 0.65 EPA/target, but just 12% of McLaurin’s targets are from the slot and Philadelphia’s defense conceded the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to outside wide receivers. McLaurin has averaged only 35 receiving yards in two games against the Eagles.
• Washington TE Zach Ertz is averaging 0.32 EPA/target (5th) and has 7 touchdowns in his last 9 games, but he could struggle as Philadelphia’s defense is conceding only a 46% success rate to opposing tight ends (3rd).
• The Eagles defense had a 37% pressure rate (7th) and the Commanders ranked 8th in pass-blocking efficiency. However, Daniels has another problem as his offensive line is unlikely to hold up on Sunday without RG Sam Cosmi, who has a torn ACL in his right knee and will be out for the remainder of the playoffs.
• Cosmi ranked 7th in pass blocking efficiency, and it will be backup Trent Scott across from Philadelphia interior defender Jalen Carter, who had 53 pressures (9th) and is coming off a 2-sack game last week despite being double-teamed by the Rams on 53% of his pass rush snaps.
• The loss of Cosmi would normally be worth a half point or 1.6 percentage points of win probability by our metrics, but those numbers could be doubled given this specific matchup against Carter. Furthermore, the Eagles’ other interior defender Milton Williams had a 14% pressure rate this year and could get a ton of opportunities to collapse the pocket if Washington’s offensive line focuses too many resources on Carter.
• The Commanders averaged 6.6 yppl last week in Detroit and jumped to 7.1 yppl when they went no-huddle.
• Washington’s offense led the NFL with a 62% no-huddle rate this year and Philadelphia’s 302 plays using no-huddle ranked 2nd.
• The Eagles averaged 1.8 yppl more in no-huddle than on plays without no-huddle this season and 3.6 more yppl using no-huddle compared to not in the two games versus the Commanders.
• The pace in this game is expected to increase scoring conditions by 0.6 points according to our numbers despite the high expected run rates, and I could see it going even higher if both offenses lean into the strength and use more no-huddle than average.
• Washington’s defense surrendered a league-high 7.7 yppl last week after allowing a league-high 6.5 yppl in the Wild Card Round. The Commanders are the worst defense remaining in the postseason, rating 18th according to our metrics even after accounting for getting back interior defender Jonathan Allen and cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
• Dan Quinn’s defense may have caught a break though as Jalen Hurts injured his leg on an awkward tackle in the second half versus the Rams. Speculation ranges from a ligament sprain to bursitis on his left knee or possibly a small meniscus tear. However, it seems a consensus that Hurts’ ability to move laterally will be noticeably affected in this game.
• Washington’s defense has a 40% blitz rate (5th-highest) and Hurts’ lack of mobility makes me think Quinn will blitz Hurts even more often. Hurts has a yards per attempt against the blitz that is just 93% of his yards per attempt against a standard pass rush (26th).
• However, the Commanders typically get to the blitz out of Cover 1 which they call at the league’s 2nd-highest rate and Hurts is averaging 28% more yppp versus Cover 1 compared to other coverages (2nd).
• The majority of Hurts’ success against Cover 1 comes from wide receiver AJ Brown, who leads the NFL averaging 4.27 yards per route run against man coverage and drew 3 pass interference calls against Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore in week 16.
• I expect Washington’s defense to go against type and stray from the man coverage this week. The Commanders already showed a willingness to do so versus the Lions last game with only a 9% man-coverage rate and versus the Eagles in week 11 with just a 15% man-coverage rate. I believe Washington’s defense only tried more man in week 16 against the Eagles because they wanted to challenge backup quarterback Kenny Pickett. The Commanders will likely lean into a ton of Cover 2 this week.
• Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert is averaging 52.7 yards per game since returning in week 18 and he has a favorable matchup as Washington’s defense is surrendering 0.33 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (26th).
• The most favorable matchup the Eagles offense will have is with the ground game. Philadelphia’s offense averaged 0.06 EPA/rush (2nd) and RB Saquon leads the league averaging 2.55 yards before contact per rush. The Commanders’ defense is 27th in EPA/rush allowed and is surrendering a league-high 2.08 yards before contact per running back run.
• The Eagles had 228 rushing yards in the first game between these teams. In the second game, Barkley had 7 carries for 109 yards in the first quarter but rushed for only 1.9 yards per carry the rest of the game as Washington’s defense put 8 or more defenders in the box on 59% of his rushing attempts. However, again I believe this was mostly due to the Commanders not respecting Pickett after Hurts left the game.
• Our model makes Philadelphia a 5.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 48.3 points, but the situation is strongly in favor of the Eagles. Washington is playing their 4th consecutive road game, and the Commanders apply to a 51-109-2 ATS 3rd consecutive road game (or more) situation. Teams coming off a win and playing their 4th consecutive road game are just 2-8-1 ATS in the playoffs. Philadelphia, meanwhile, applies to a 71-17-1 ATS playoff home team situation and a 33-13 ATS conference championship game situation.
• I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington wins this game, especially if Hurts is unable to contribute to the run game with his injured knee, but history is strongly against the Commanders in this game.