College Football Rotation

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Indiana (-7.5)  27   MIAMI-FLORIDA  18

Indiana Offense vs Miami Defense

Indiana’s offense has been 1.7 yards per play better than average but would rate higher than that if they didn’t run the ball so much late in games with big leads. The offense is significantly better than that now with the emergence of big play wide receiver Charlie Becker, who didn’t play much early in the season but is now third on the team in receiving yards (614 yards) while averaging a ridiculous 15.4 yards per target (with a 75% success rate). Becker started getting more looks when Elijah Surratt was injured but he’s still been the 2nd most targeted player on team in the 4 games since Surratt returned to the lineup (17 targets for Becker, 20 targets for Surratt and 14 targets for Cooper Jr., who missed most of the Ohio State game).

Becker’s emergence has lifted the Indiana offense to another level and relegated less efficient receivers Williams, Brady, and Bond to spot duty. Those 3 receivers have combined for a modest 7.8 yards per target against FBS opponents (on 69 targets) while Becker, Surratt and Cooper Jr. have combined for 10.3 YPT. In other words, there are now 3 dangerous receivers for opponents to worry about instead of just two and Fernando Mendoza has averaged 8.2 yards per pass play in those last 4 games despite facing teams that would combine to allow just 4.7 yppp to an average quarterback. Mendoza has averaged 8.3 yppp in the previous three games against elite defensive teams Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon.

Miami, like Oregon in the semifinal game, has one of the best defensive units in the nation (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.4 yppl against an average team). Indiana has played 5 games against very good defensive teams (Iowa, Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon twice) and the Hoosiers’ offense has been relatively better in those games, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would combine to allow just 4.1 yppl to an average offense. That’s despite running the ball on nearly every play in the latter parts of the playoff games against Alabama and Oregon because the Hoosiers had huge leads. Indiana’s offense is 2.4 yppl better than average based on their run-play percentage when games are still competitive and adjusting for having Becker as a major part of the offense now.

Miami’s defense has faced 4 elite offensive teams in Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss and the Hurricanes have been slightly better in those games, rating at 1.9 yppl better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to those 4 teams that would average 7.4 yppl against an average defense). The absence of defensive back Xavier Lucas for the first half of this game is worth a bit, but I also adjusted for the nearly 4 full games that star safety Keionte Scott missed in November and those adjustments basically cancel each other out.

Indiana’s offense is 0.8 yppl better than the average of those great offensive teams that Miami has faced and I’m projecting 372 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Hoosiers in this game, which would put them at 27 points. However, Indiana is scoring more than they’re projected to score because they lead the nation in 3rd-down conversions (57.4% vs FBS teams). There is likely positive variance in that 3rd-down success, but Indiana would be projected to score 30.4 points if their 3rd-down rate was real and not partially random.

Miami Offense vs Indiana Defense

Miami has a good but not great offense, as the Hurricanes have been just 0.1 yards per rushing play better than average (4.7 yprp against FBS teams that would allow 4.6 yprp to an average team) while quarterback Carson Beck has been 2.1 yards per pass play better than average but has struggled against good defensive teams. Overall, the Canes are 0.9 yards per play better than average and are up against a very good Indiana defense that’s yielded just 11.9 points per game and 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense.

Beck hasn’t been quite as good against teams with a good pass defense (Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Pitt, Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss), as he’s been 1.7 yppl better than average in those games (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 4.8 yppp), compared to +2.1 yppp for the season. Indiana has a very good run defense (4.0 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average team) and they’ve yielded just 5.3 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 7.2 yppp against an average defense.

The Hoosiers have played 4 games against very good quarterbacks (Oregon twice, Ohio State, and Alabama) and they’ve allowed just 5.3 yppp to those future NFL quarterbacks who would combine to average 8.8 yppp against an average defense. That’s the same yppp that they allowed overall, so they’ve certainly been at their best this season against the best opposition that they’ve faced while holding those teams with elite quarterbacks to an average of just 12 points (excluding the 7 points that Oregon scored on a defensive TD).

The regression equation projecting Indiana’s yards per play allowed based on the opponent’s compensated offensive yards per play (adjusted for site and QB’s faced) also is evidence of the Hoosiers’ defense being relatively better against better offensive teams, as the slope of that equation is 0.33. That means that for every yard per play better their opponent has been the Hoosiers only allowed 0.33 more yards per play to that team. That equation would predict Indiana allowing just 5.0 yppl to a team with Miami’s offensive rating, which is 0.2 yppl less than the prediction for the Hurricanes’ offense with all games weighted equally.

The math predicts 303 yards at 5.2 yppl for Miami with 19 points scored but it would be just 287 yards at 5.0 yppl if I apply Indiana’s regression equation, which I believe is warranted here.

Summary

Weighing all games equally would result in a projected winning margin of 7.1 points for Indiana (and a total of 46.3 points), but the Hoosiers’ defense has been significantly better against better offensive teams and Indiana’s offense would be projected to score a few more points if their extremely good third-down offense was real and not partially due to positive variance. Just applying the regression equation for Indiana’s defense would result in a predicted margin of 8.9 points and 44.7 total points. A compensated points model would favor Indiana by 12 points in this game but that assumes that Indiana’s extremely good third-down differential (+25.9% vs FBS teams) and turnover margin (+1.5 per game) are real and not randomly higher than their other metrics would predict.

I think Indiana by 9 points, with 45 total points, is a reasonable prediction given all the data I’ve looked at, which includes a 1-point advantage for Miami playing this game at home (although Indiana will have a lot of fans there).