College Football Rotation

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Note: This play was released on Monday morning when the line was 19 points. FIU is still a 2-Star Best Bet at +17.

2-Star Best Bet – **Florida International (+19)  20   LIBERTY  30

Liberty needed a late score against East Carolina in their most recent game to get their first spread win of the season and even that game had a game grade that was 2 points below an average FBS team. Liberty is 4-0 but the Flames aren’t as good as they were last season. They lost all but one of their top 5 receivers from last season, including star CJ Daniels, who transferred to LSU after averaging 12.4 yards on his 86 targets last season. Quarterback Kaidon Salter is averaging 8.3 yards per pass play, but he’s faced teams that would allow 7.7 yppp to an average quarterback. FIU has a been very good defending the pass this season, yielding just 5.6 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average defense. That includes holding Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke (10.4 yppp this season) to just 6.5 yppp. Overall, Liberty’s offense has been just average through 4 games (6.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.7 yppl to an average offense) while the Panthers’ defense has ben 0.3 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team).

The Liberty defense also hasn’t been as good this season, as the seemingly good 5.1 yppl allowed has been against offensive units that would combine to average only 4.5 yppl against an average defense. I rate that defense at just 0.2 yppl worse than average after blending in their prior but FIU has a quarterback in Keyone Jenkins that can take advantage of what’s been a sub-par Liberty pass defense. Jenkins has averaged 6.7 yppp (against teams that would allow 7.2 yppp) and Liberty’s defense has allowed 64% completions and 5.8 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 4.7 yppp against an average defense. I rate the pass defense at 0.5 yppp worse than average (instead of 1.1 yppp worse than average they’ve been this seson), which is the same as the FIU pass offense and I think the Panthers should be able to score enough points to stay within a huge number given that the FIU defense has been better than the Liberty offense so far this season.

Liberty has had a below average game rating in every game they’ve played this season (average rating of -5.4 points). The market still rates Liberty as being an average or better team, and I don’t think they are.

Florida International is a 2-Star Best Bet at +17 points or more (Strong Opinion at +16.5).

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – JACKSONVILLE STATE (-21)  42   New Mexico State  17

My math favors Jacksonville State by 22.3 points and they apply to a 69-16-4 ATS home favorite momentum situation while New Mexico State applies to a 50-124-4 ATS situation that plays against road underdogs with a bad defense that just gave up a lot of points (they allowed 50 to New Mexico in their most recent game).

The Jacksonville State offense has taken advantage of bad defensive teams in their 3 most recent games, averaging 47 points and 493 yards per game at 7.2 yards per play against Eastern Michigan, Southern Miss and Kennesaw State. New Mexico State’s defense is just as bad and the Gamecocks should once again score a lot of points.

New Mexico State has my 3rd lowest ranked offense among FBS teams and the Aggies have averaged just 4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team. Jacksonville State’s defense, playing at home, rates at 0.1 yppl better than what NMSU has faced on average this season so they’re likely to continue to struggle to move the ball consistently.

I’ll Lean with Jacksonville State at -21 or less.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

JAMES MADISON (-9.5)  36   Coastal Carolina  27

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – LOUISIANA TECH (-4)  31   Middle Tennessee State  23

Louisiana Tech is a passing team and the Bulldogs should have no trouble moving the ball through the air tonight against a horrible MTSU pass defense that’s allowed 73% completions and 8.4 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would average 6.0 yppp against an average defense. Freshman QB Evan Bullock looks like an upgrade behind center for Louisiana Tech, as he’s completed 70% of his 43 passes (the other 2 QBs have combined for just 52%), and the weather forecast is calling for 0 to 1 mph winds and no rain, which is perfect weather for passing.

Middle Tennessee State also prefers to throw the ball and they should have some success doing so, but I project the Blue Raiders to average 1.9 yppp less than what Louisiana Tech will average through the air while also averaging 0.5 yards per rushing play less.

Louisiana Tech qualifies as a Lean at -4 or less.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

WESTERN KENTUCKY (-20)  39   Texas-El Paso  22

UTEP has turned to Cade McConnell to run the offense, and McConnell has been an upgrade over Skyler Locklear. McConnell was also the best of the UTEP quarterbacks last season, and he rates at just 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average. He should put up good numbers in this game against a horrible Western Kentucky pass defense that’s given up 7.9 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 6.2 yppp against an average defensive team.

The Hilltoppers will perform even better on offense against a bad UTEP defense, but the Miners should produce enough points to stay under the big number.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

MARYLAND (-11/-10.5)  31   Northwestern  18

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Nevada-Las Vegas (-19)  43   UTAH STATE  24

Game Analysis view matchup stats

1-Star Best Bet – *ARIZONA STATE (+4.5)  22   Utah  21

I like Arizona State even with Cam Rising at quarterback for Utah and if he’s 100% healthy, which would probably not be the case if he plays.

Arizona State has been 9.3 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage this season, as they’ve outgained their opponents 6.0 yards per play to 4.8 yppl while rating at 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 1.1 yppl better than average defensively after adjusting for schedule strength. ASU’s #2 tackler, LB Keyshaun Elliott, and sack leader Clayton Smith will both miss the first half of this game due to targeting penalties in the second half of last week’s game and that makes their defense 0.2 yppl worse (0.4 yppl in the first half).

That ASU defense has been great defending the run (4.2 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yprp against an average team) and the pass (5.3 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.5 yppp) and Utah has been slightly below average offensively both running and throwing the ball (-0.1 yprp and -0.1 yppp). Obviously, if Rising played then the pass numbers would be significantly better, as Rising was 1.3 yppp better than average in 2022 (he missed all of last season), but Utah would be just 0.5 yppl better than average with Rising playing at that level, which is not nearly as good as the ASU defense has been.

Utah’s defense appears to be playing very well, as the Utes have yielded just 5.3 yppl and 18.8 points per game in 4 games against FBS opponents. However, they faced Baylor with Finn at quarterback instead of Robertson (Robertson has been 2.2 yppp better), they faced Utah State’s backup QB (1.2 yppp worse than the starter) and they faced Oklahoma State’s backup for part of that game (he’s 1.7 yppp worse). That’s 73 of the 138 pass plays they’ve faced in FBS games coming against their opponent’s significantly worse quarterback. Utah’s defense has been 0.6 yards per play better than average after accounting for the quarterbacks that they faced, which is only 0.4 yppl better than the ASU offense. The Sun Devils’ defense rates at 1.0 yppl better than the Utah offense (without two starters for the 1^st half) and would be 0.4 yppl better even if Rising played at 100%).

Arizona State is a 1-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more (+1 or more if Rising is downgraded to doubtful or out).

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Miami-Ohio (-2.5)  25   EASTERN MICHIGAN  22

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Iowa State (-3 -115)  32   WEST VIRGINIA  25

I bet Iowa State’s Team Total over 7.5 wins before the season started and the Cyclones are still underrated. ISU’s offense has been 1.1 yards per play better than average this season (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average offense) and they’re facing a West Virginia defense that’s given up 6.2 yppl to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defense.

The Mountaineers have a good offense (0.9 yppl better than average) but Iowa State’s defense has been 0.8 yppl better than average and should keep Garrett Greene and company in check.

Iowa State is a Lean at -3 -115 or better.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

GEORGIA SOUTHERN (+1)  30   Marshall  29

Passing conditions will be perfect with zero wind expected on Saturday night in Statesboro, but Georgia Southern’s pass heavy attack is going to maximize that advantage in the pass game while Marshall, with their new running quarterback Braylon Braxton, will still likely run the ball much more than they throw it. Last week in Braxton’s first start the Thundering Herd ran 36 times and threw it just 14 times. Braxton had a good game, running for 140 yards on 15 carries and he’s averaged 6.5 yards per run over his career (formerly with Tulsa). However, he’s also completed just 53.7% of his 242 career passes and got 75 of his 129 pass yards last week on a pass thrown behind the line of scrimmage to a running back, who tallied 80 yards after the catch.

Georgia Southern is coming off a bye and I’ll call for the mini-upset.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Strong Opinion – PITTSBURGH (-3)  31   California  22

It’s going to be tough for Cal to get off the mat after losing a 25-point lead to Miami last Saturday night. College teams historically suffer a letdown after a close loss as a big underdog and the Golden Bears apply to a 30-92-2 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Not only is Cal in a tough spot having to pick themselves up and travel across the country but Pitt is a better team.

Cal played well offensively last week but 3 of their 5 games have graded as worse than average offensively and they are just average for the season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) despite averaging 7.7 yppl against the Canes. Pitt’s defense has been 1.0 yppl better than average this season (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average team) and they should limit the Cal attack.

Cal’s defense leads the nation in interceptions with 11 (5.6% of pass plays) but passes defended (i.e interceptions plus passes broken up) is a better indicator of future interceptions and the Bears’ should register an interception on just 3.1% of pass plays. Cal’s defense is still solid, having yielded just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense but Pitt’s offense is just as good (6.9 yppl against FBS teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average offense).

Pitt has been much better overall from the line of scrimmage, they’re better in special teams and they Bears aren’t likely to be as fortunate in turnovers as they’ve been (+1.6 per game).

Pittsburgh is a Strong Opinion at -3 -115 odds or better.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Vanderbilt (+13.5)  17   KENTUCKY  26

This feels like a letdown spot for Vanderbilt after upsetting Alabama last week but road underdogs of 7 points or more are 22-7 ATS the week after winning straight up as an underdog of more than 20 points since 2001.

I still sense a letdown but the math likes the Commodores to keep this game competitive.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Syracuse (-3)  30   NC STATE  24

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Missouri (-27.5/-27)  39   MASSACHUSETTS  13

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Northern Illinois (+3)  24   BOWLING GREEN  23

My math model only favors Bowling Green by 1.6 points, as the Huskies’ run-oriented offense should work very well against a Bowling Green defense that’s allowed 6.5 yards per rushing play this season (to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp against an average team). NIU’s leading rusher Antario Brown has been downgraded to out, but his 4.6 ypr average this season is less than the 5.5 ypr averaged by his backups (447 yards on 82 runs). Brown is a key part of the pass attack though and overall the Huskies’ offense gets downgraded by 1.1 points.

Bowling Green has been good offensively (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team) but the NIU defense has been just as good (4.6 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 4.9 yppl against an average defense).

The Huskies are also at their best under coach Hammock as underdogs (21-10-2 ATS) and off a spread loss (15-8-1 ATS). They also apply to a very good 112-32-3 ATS situation.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

WESTERN MICHIGAN (-4.5)  28   Akron  18

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Louisville (-7)  33   VIRGINIA  26

Game Analysis view matchup stats

TENNESSEE (-14.5)  39   Florida  21

Lean on Tennessee at -14 or less.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

GEORGIA STATE (-1.5)  29   Old Dominion   24

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Ball State (-4.5)  32   KENT STATE  28

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Over (61) – Clemson (-20)  44   WAKE FOREST  24

Clemson has averaged 48.5 points in 4 games since being held to 3 points in their opener by Georgia and the Tigers had 500 total yards last week against Florida State and should have scored more than 29 points. The Tigers should top 40 points in this game against a Wake Forest defense that’s been 0.7 yards per play worse than average and gave up an average of 7.4 yppl to the 3 good offensive teams that they’ve faced (Virginia, Ole Miss, and UL Lafayette).

Clemson’s defense has only been 0.1 yppl better than average this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average defense and Wake Forest has a good enough offense to score their share of points in good conditions (barely any wind expected).

Game Analysis view matchup stats

GEORGIA (-34)  44   Mississippi State  13

Georgia by 34 is the right number but the Bulldogs haven’t covered as a favorite of 21 points or more since October of 2022 (0-11-1) and they’re 0-11-1 ATS laying more than 38 points since 2016.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

UCF (-2)  32   Cincinnati  27

Note: The line was -3.5 before news of Jefferson’s benching came out and this game will be graded at -3.5, since that’s the number when I posted the analysis.

UCF QB KJ Jefferson has been benched in favor of EJ Colson and I don’t think a downgrade in the Golden Knight’s pass game is warranted given that Jefferson has not been good and the coaches obviously believe they have a better offense with Colson.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+3)  27   Ohio  26

The line is fair but Central Michigan applies to a 42-8 ATS subset of a 130-65-4 ATS home dog off a bye situation. CMU would be a Lean at +3 or more.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Toledo (-10.5)  25   BUFFALO  15

Game Analysis view matchup stats

North Texas (-5)  31   FLORIDA ATLANTIC  24

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – RICE (+5.5)  23   Texas-San Antonio  23

Neither of these teams has covered the spread against an FBS opponent this season (combined 0-8 ATS) but I think UTSA is more overrated than the Owls.

The Roadrunners have been outgained by an average of 0.8 yards per play (5.1 yppl to 5.9 yppl allowed) while facing a schedule of teams that are 0.5 yppl worse than average from the line of scrimmage collectively. UTSA rates at 0.8. yppl worse than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense.

Rice, meanwhile, is just 0.9 yppl worse than average in 4 games against FBS opponents, rating at -1.1 yppl on offense and 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team).

I’ll rather have the better defense at home getting points in a game between two struggling offensive teams.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – NORTH CAROLINA (+4)  33   Georgia Tech  32

Georgia Tech has a very good offense, as the Yellow Jackets have averaged 6.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. However, North Carolina’s offense has been +0.5 yppl for the season (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) but the Tarheels rate at 0.8 yppl better than average with Jacolby Criswell at quarterback, as he’s been 0.6 yards per pass play better than the team average compensated pass play rating in his 4 games at the helm.

The offensive units are even and UNC has had the better defense, as the Heels have been average defensively while Georgia Tech has been 0.4 yppl worse than average (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team). The market seems to think they’re better defensively because they’ve given up just 21.8 points per game, but that scoring average allowed is a mirage and is why we have line value on the side on North Carolina in this game.

UNC also applies to a 94-41-3 ATS home underdog bounce-back situation that is based on their losing streak.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Army (-27)  40   UAB  13

The line has moved from 22.5 to 27 and 27.5, which is an indication that UAB quarterback Jacob Zeno is likely to miss another game.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Strong Opinion – Southern Miss Team Total Under (16.5 -105)

The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is UL Monroe at -6 or less

UL MONROE (-5.5)  22   Southern Miss  11

Louisiana-Monroe is an underrated team due to a defense that has allowed just 5.2 yards per play in 5 games to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team. They gave up 51 points to Texas, but the Longhorns only averaged 6.1 yppl in that game, which is much lower than the 7.5 yppl that Texas would project to gain against an average defensive team. Only Michigan’s great defense did a better job against Texas than ULM did (Michigan gave up 5.7 yppl to the Horns).

Monroe has only allowed 19.8 points per game even with that misleading 51 points allowed to Texas, which means that they yielded an average of just 12.0 points in their other games this season, including holding a good James Madison offense to just 19 points in their most recent game (after JMU scored 133 points in two games right before playing ULM and scored 39 points in Thursday night).

The Southern Miss offense managed 35 points against FBS teams SE Louisiana, but the Eagles have averaged only 11.0 points against FBS teams that are all significantly worse than average defensively aside from Kentucky (who they didn’t score against).

My model is showing value on ULM and on the Under, but all of that value is on Monroe’s defense against the pathetic Southern Miss offense that rates at 1.3 yppl worse than average.

The Southern Miss Team Total Under (16.5 -105) is a Strong Opinion at 16 points or more. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is UL Monroe at -6 or less.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

ILLINOIS (-23)  35   Purdue  12

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean -Wisconsin (+1.5)  25   RUTGERS  22

Rutgers is 4-1 but the Scarlet Knights played two cupcakes to start the season (Howard and Akron) and have been outplayed 4.9 yards per play to 5.8 yppl in games against Virginia Tech, Washington and Nebraska. Rutgers is not as good as their record and I rate them below their market rating.

Wisconsin struggled out of the gate this year with new quarterback Tyler Van Dyke struggling, but the Badgers played better than the score indicated against USC in Braedyn Locke’s first start two weeks ago (averaged 5.6 yppl and allowed 5.8 yppl) and they got their first spread win of the season with a confidence building 52-6 win over Purdue in which Locke tallied 359 yards on 31 pass plays. Teams that start the season with 4 consecutive spread losses and then cover the spread in game 5 tend to continue that momentum (154-103-6 ATS, 60%, in game 6) and Wisconsin applies to a 50-12-1 ATS subset of that situation.

I rate Wisconsin as the better team.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Kansas State (-3.5)  29   COLORADO  27

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Note: This Best Bet was released on Monday morning when the line was -4.5. New Mexico is still a 1-Star Best Bet at -6.5.

1-Star Best Bet – *NEW MEXICO (-4.5)  35   Air Force  22

New Mexico has a horrible defense that has been 1.5 yards per play worse than average, but the Lobos are facing an Air Force option offense that managed just 11.4 points per game on 250 total yards at 4.0 yppl against a schedule of defensive units that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average offensive team. So, the Falcons’ offense (-1.9 yppl) has been ever worse than the New Mexico defense. New Mexico also has a head coach in Bronco Mendenhall, who was a long time defensive coordinator and his current DC has been with him for 15 years. Those two have experience against the option and Mendenhall has faced an option team 13 times (all vs Air Force) in his time as a DC or head coach (he acted as DC in most years as HC) at New Mexico and BYU and his teams are 9-4 ATS against Air Force. The Lobos also had a bye last week, giving the coaches an extra week to teach the defense how to defend the option.

The bigger advantage for the Lobos is when their balanced and explosive offense has the ball. New Mexico has averaged over 200 yards rushing and passing and has averaged a total of 462 yards per game at 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. The Air Force defense has only allowed 23.8 points per game because the slow pace of their offense limits possessions, but the Falcons have been 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense). That unit has been worse than average against both the run and the pass so the Lobos should be able to run their entire offense without an issue.

New Mexico is a 1-Star Best Bet at -6.5 points or less (Strong Opinion up to -7).

Game Analysis view matchup stats

San Jose State (+1)  28   COLORADO STATE  26

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Under (49) – BYU (-3)  23   Arizona  19

Both defensive units have an advantage in this game and both teams run their offense at a slower than average pace. I just don’t see a lot of scoring.

Arizona’s offense isn’t nearly as good this season under the new coaching staff but I still rate the Wildcats’ attack at 0.6 yards per play better than average. However, BYU’s defense has been among the best in the nation, having yielded just 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense. The Cougars’ compensated yards per play is the best in the nation and Arizona only averaged 15 points in two games against good defensive teams Kansas State and Utah, who aren’t as good as BYU.

The BYU offense is a bit better than average but they’re at a disadvantage against an Arizona defense that’s allowed just 5.4 yppl this season to a collection of teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense. Arizona has allowed just 23.6 points per game to teams that collectively rate a bit better offensively than BYU does.

The Under is a Lean at 48 points or more.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Washington State (-3.5)  31   FRESNO STATE  26

Game Analysis view matchup stats

ALABAMA (-21.5)  34   South Carolina  15

You might think that Alabama would be in a good situation after last week’s shocking loss to Vanderbilt, but it turns out that winning teams that are favored the week after losing straight up as a favorite of more than 17 points are just 34-63-2 ATS. The Crimson Tide apply to a 10-40-2 ATS subset of that situation.

The math model favors Alabama by just 19 points.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Notre Dame Team Total Under (34.5/34)

NOTRE DAME (-23)  28   Stanford  10

Ashton Daniels is expected back at quarterback for Stanford this week, but I still expect the Cardinal to struggle offensively against a dominating Notre Dame defense. However, the Irish offense is not much better than the Cardinal defense and I don’t think that Notre Dame will get to their market team total of 34.5 points (might be 34 by Saturday morning).

The Irish have been just 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average offense) and Stanford has been 0.2 yppl better than average defensively, as the 6.0 yppl the Cardinal have yielded has come against teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defensive team.

Notre Dame scored 66 points in one game against a horrible Purdue defense but they’ve averaged only 24 points in their other games with a high of 31 points, which includes games against two MAC teams (14 points vs Northern Illinois and 28 points vs Miami-Ohio). The 31 points they got last week against Louisville is misleading given that the Irish gained just 282 total yards of offense. Notre Dame’s strength is running the ball, as Riley Leonard has had trouble throwing it (0.9 yards per pass play worse than average) but Stanford has been very good defending the run so far this season – surrendering just 103 run yards per game at 4.1 yards per rushing play (to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average defense.

The value my math model is showing on Stanford and the Under is all due to Notre Dame’s offense projected to score less than the market expects them too. Thus, playing the Notre Dame Team Total Under is the way to go here.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Texas (-15)  30   Oklahoma  17

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Strong Opinion – Mississippi (-3)  37   LSU  28

This would have been a Best Bet if not for LSU applying to a 103-38-2 ATS home dog off a bye angle. While the situation is strongly in favor of the Tigers, the math is even more in favor of the Rebels.

LSU’s only good quality is an offense that has been 1.2 yards per play better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). Mississippi’s offense is better, as the Rebels have been 1.8 yppl better than average when they have the ball (7.9 yppl against 5 FBS teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team. They have taken advantage of a few bad defensive teams (MTSU, Wake, and Geo Southern) but they were 1.7 yppl better than average the last two weeks against good defensive teams Kentucky and South Carolina (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 4.6 yppl). LSU’s defense is more like the first 3 FBS teams that they faced, as the Tigers have given up 6.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense. The Rebels have averaged 37.6 points in 5 games against FBS opponents that are 0.2 yppl better collectively on defense than LSU’s defense. Top WR Tre Harris is questionable to play and his 13.6 yards per target is certainly impressive. However, each of the 4 next leading receivers, including the tight end, are all averaging 12.0 YPT or more with 3 of the 4 average more than 13 YPT. Harris does have the highest success rate among the receivers but I still like Ole Miss even if he doesn’t play.

LSU’s offense may be 1.2 yppl better than average but the Ole Miss defense has been 1.4 yppl better than average, having allowed just 9.0 points per game and only 4.1 yppl to 5 FBS opponents that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense.

Mississippi is significantly better than LSU and this would have been a 2-Star Best Bet based solely on the math model, but the strong situation favoring the Tigers makes this a Strong Opinion instead.

Mississippi is a Strong Opinion at -3 -115 or better.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (-10.5)  37   Appalachian State  24

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – WYOMING (pick)  23   San Diego State  19

My math favors Wyoming by 1, so the line is fair, but the Cowboys apply to a 103-39-4 ATS momentum situation.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – TEXAS STATE (-14)  39   Arkansas State  20

Arkansas State is coming off an 18-16 upset home win over South Alabama, but the Red Wolves were outplayed in that game 411 yards at 6.0 yards per play to 453 yards at 6.6 yppl and they’ve been consistently bad this season – rating at more than 10 points worse than average from the line of scrimmage in all of their games so far with an offense that’s been 1.1 yppl worse than average and a defense that’s been 0.6 yppl worse then average.

Texas State, meanwhile, has been better than average on both sides of the ball, as the Bobcats have been 0.4 yppl better than average on offense (6.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average defense).

My math model favors Texas State by 17 points and Arkansas State applies to a 42-105-3 ATS road underdog letdown situation that is based on last week’s close upset win.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Strong Opinion – UCLA Team Total Under (17.5 -125)

Minnesota (-4)  21   UCLA  12

UCLA’s backup quaarterback played pretty well last week and make no adjustment for which Bruins’ QB plays. UCLA will struggle regardless of the quarterback, as the Bruins are a below average offensive team that hasn’t topped 17 points in any game this season and now are up against an elite Minnesota defense that’s yielded just 15.7 points and 252 yards per game at 4.3 yppl while facing a slate of opposing offenses that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense (adjusted for facing UNC’s lesser quarterbacks and Michigan’s Orji).

UCLA has been good defensively, rating at 0.9 yppl better than average (5.8 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.7 yppl against an average defensive unit), and the Gophers are a bit below average offensively, so I don’t expect many points from either team.

My math model favors Minnesota by 5.3 points with a total of just 33 points (Even with a couple of points for the calm weather factored in). Minnesota applies to one of my favorite situations (112-32-3 ATS) and I’d prefer to play it with a Strong Opinion on the UCLA Team Total Under 17 points or more.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

OREGON (+3)  26   Ohio State  26

My math model favors Ohio State by just 1 point and underdogs are usually the way to look in games involving two unbeaten teams. Dogs of 2 points or more in a game pitting two 5-0 or better unbeatens are 39-18-5 ATS and unbeaten home dogs that are 5-0 or better are 47-22-3 ATS since 1980, including 19-3-1 ATS since 2012.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

1-Star Best Bet – *Washington (+3)  23   IOWA  19

Washington had outplayed all 6 of their opponents from the line of scrimmage by at least 8.5 points and by an average of 23.3 points per game. The Huskies are underrated because of fluky losses to Washington State and Rutgers, who they outgained by a combined 970 total yards (at 7.3 yards per play) to 683 yards (5.7 yppl). The Huskies are very good on both sides of the ball, rating at 1.5 yppl better than average on offense (7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and 1.2 yppl better than average defensively (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team).

Iowa is known for their defense and that unit has yielded just 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average stop unit. However, that’s not as good as Washington’s defense has been and the Hawkeyes are significantly worse than the Huskies offensively, as Iowa rates at -0.1 yppl on the attack side of the ball (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl).

Washington is clearly the better team, and I like taking 3 points or more with good defensive teams that aren’t bad offensively. In fact, teams that allow an average of less than 13.5 points per game (after 5 games or more) and average 21 points per game or more are 201-132-9 ATS as underdogs of 3 points or more. Makes sense to me. I would have made Washington at higher rated Best Bet if not for the fact that Iowa has a good history in games after a loss under coach Ferentz (48-26-2 ATS the week after a loss since 2000).

Washington is a 1-Star Best Bet at +3 -115 odds or better (Strong Opinion to +2).

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Oregon State (-3)  27   NEVADA  24

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – USC (+4/+3.5)  25   Penn State  24

Penn State has not been much better than USC this season and the Nittany Lions should not be favored by 3 points or more in Los Angeles. The Lions have moved the ball well on offense, averaging 7.3 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense but they’ve averaged just 24 points in two games against better than average defensive teams Illinois and UCLA and USC’s defense (0.6 yppl better than average) rates about the same as those two defenses that held Penn State’s attack in check.

The USC offense isn’t quite as good as I expected them to be, but the Trojans are still 0.9 yppl better than average (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they should be able to score a decent number of points at home against a Penn State defense that’s been 1.1 yppl better than average.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Boise State (-20.5)  42   HAWAII  17

Boise State has the best running back in the nation in Ashton Jeanty, who has run for 1031 yards at 10.9 yards per rush in basically 4 games (he sat out the second half in two games). People that say he’s putting up those numbers against weak teams obviously don’t know what they’re talking about, as Jeanty ran for 192 yards at 7.7 ypr against an elite Oregon defense and also tallied 259 yards at 10.0 ypr against Washington State, who is still playing at the level of a Power conference team.

Hawaii defends the run pretty well, but they’re horrible against the pass and Boise has a very good pass attack to go along with Jeanty’s running. The Broncos have scored a minimum of 45 points against every team except Oregon, who they lost to 34-37 as a 21-point underdog and they should approach that number even with the steady winds expected in Honolulu on Saturday night.

The wind will affect Hawaii even more, as they Warriors throw the ball nearly 70% of their plays. Hawaii throws the ball a lot but they’re not good at it, as they’ve been 1.7 yards per pass play worse than average after adjusting for opposing defenses (even after taking out their horrible passing in week 1 against New Hampshire – a game played in very heavy winds). I project only 4.6 yards per play for the home team in this game, which won’t be enough to keep up with Boise’s explosive and balanced attack.

Boise is a Lean at -21 or less.

Game Analysis view matchup stats

Lean – Under (60) – Memphis (-10)  32   South Florida  19

USF quarterback Byrum Brown is OUT and Bryce Archie has been terrible in his career. The USF offense should struggle, especially if they try to run more (Memphis has a good run defense) and I think the TIgers’ offense is overrated, as their 6.1 yards per play have come against teams that would allow 6.8 yppl to an average attack.