Southeast
Alabama
vs
Indiana
Thu, Jan 1 1:00 PM PT
Rotation: 261, Odds: Indiana -7, Total: 48
Game Analysis view matchup stats
Indiana (-7) 28 Alabama 20
It may seem strange the Indiana is favored by a touchdown over Alabama but the Hoosiers should be favored by more than 7 points based on my math, which favors Indiana by 8.5 points with 48.3 total points.
Alabama’s offense depends on the arm of Ty Simpson, as the Crimson Tide simply don’t have their usual strong rush attack this season (4.2 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.1 yprp to an average team). Simpson averaged 6.5 yards per pass play against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Simpson only threw 5 interceptions but he should have thrown more based on his 38 passes defended against (which projects to 7.8 interceptions).
Indiana has an elite defense that allowed just 11.8 points per game and rates at 1.3 yppl better than average. The Hoosiers have proven themselves against better offensive teams by holding Oregon and Ohio State to an average of just 15 points. I project 322 yards at 5.3 yppl for Alabama in this game.
Indiana’s offense averaged 6.8 yppl against FBS teams with starters in the game against teams that would allow just 5.1 yppl to an average offense and their rating would be higher if they didn’t go run-heavy in blowout wins. Indiana ran the ball 58% of the time but just 52% of the time when the games were competitive and I expect more passing than normal in this game, which will boost their offense a bit. I project 386 yards at 6.4 yppl for the Hoosiers in this game against an Alabama defense that was 1.1 yppl better than average this season (5.1 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.2 yppl against an average defense).
Kalen DeBoer’s teams have a strong tendency to play their best against better teams, as he is now 13-3 straight up and 14-2 ATS when favored by less than 3 points, a pick, or underdog (2-1 this year with a split of 2 games against Georgia and a win over Oklahoma in their first playoff game). However, Indiana’s Curt Cignetti is 33-17 ATS in his career in all games at the FBS level and the Hoosiers are 2-0 straight up (both as underdogs) against the elite teams that they’ve played this season (at Oregon and vs Ohio State).
Mississippi
vs
Georgia
Thu, Jan 1 5:00 PM PT
Rotation: 263, Odds: Georgia -6.5, Total: 55.5
Game Analysis view matchup stats
Georgia (-6.5) 30 Mississippi 25
It’s still hard to say how much not having Lane Kiffin will affect the Ole Miss offense. They actually played better than expected against Tulane in their first playoff game (514 yards at 7.8 yards per play) but I suspect there will be a negative impact in this game. Even so, I still would rather have Mississippi plus the points.
Mississippi’s offense was 1.6 yards per play better than average with Trinidad Chambliss at quarterback this season and I project 390 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Rebels against a Georgia defense that was 1.4 yppl better than average this season. Georgia is without LB Gabe Harris, who is third on the team in total tackles for loss (6.5) and he’s worth 0.4 points. Ole Miss averaged 5.9 yppl and scored 35 points in a loss at Georgia earlier this season so 6.0 yppl seems reasonable.
Georgia’s offense was just 0.5 yppl better than average this season (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average offense) but they tend to play very vanilla scheme’s as huge favorites, so I decided to discard their early season games against Marshall and Austin Peay. Georgia’s pass game gets a boost with the return from injury of WR Colbie Young, who missed the last 6 games after averaging 10.8 yards per target over the first 7 games of the season. I still rate Georgia’s offense at just 0.7 yards per play better than average even after taking out their first 2 games and giving their pass game a 0.2 yppp boost for getting Young back.
Mississippi’s defense was just 0.5 yppl better than average this season (barely worse than Georgia’s offense) and I don’t expect them to play as horribly as they did in their loss at Georgia when the Bulldogs gained 513 yards at 6.7 yppl. That was Gunner Stockton’s best game and I consider it a fluke. I project 415 yards at 6.0 yppl for the Bulldogs in this game, even with a boost for being in a dome.
The math only favors Georgia by 3.3 points (and 56.7 total points) and I’ll dock Ole Miss a bit for Kiffin not calling plays for the Rebels, which should matter more against a good defense than it did against Tulane.