NCAA Tournament Capsules (2017)

Links to all NCAA Tournament Capsules are below: South Midwest East West Also check out How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool   Dr. Bob’s NCAA Tournament Best Bets are 56% over 28 years and have gotten better recently, going 122-93-3 (57%) the last 13 years and 47-31-1 (60%) the last 5 years. Designated ‘opinion’ games are 86-74-4 (54%) the last 5 years …

NCAA Tournament Capsules: South Region (2017)

South Region (1) North Carolina (27-7) There was some discussion as to whether Duke should have received this #1 seed instead of North Carolina because the Blue Devils beat the Tarheels twice, including in the ACC Tournament. But, Duke was lucky to win both games in the form of 52% 3-point shooting to 26% 3-point shooting for UNC. Duke is …

NCAA Tournament Capsules: Midwest Region (2017)

Midwest Region   (1) Kansas (28-4) I wasn’t particularly impressed with Kansas even before they lost to TCU in their opening Big 12 Tournament game. The Jayhawks have been overrated all season (12-18 ATS), and they weren’t particularly great against other really good teams. Kansas did beat Duke by 2 points early in the season, split two games with Iowa …

NCAA Tournament Capsules: East Region (2017)

East Region   (1) Villanova (31-3) Before winning the Championship last season, Villanova had a pattern of underperforming as a high seed in this tournament. In 2015 the #1 seeded Wildcats lost in the 2nd round. In 2014, as a #2 seed, the Cats also lost in the 2nd round, as was the case in 2010. Before last season the …

NCAA Tournament Capsules: West Region (2017)

West Region   (1) Gonzaga (32-1) Gonzaga has the highest adjusted total efficiency in the nation and the question is if they built up those impressive compensated efficiency numbers by beating up on weaker teams. That answer is no. Gonzaga played relatively better against better teams, both offensively and defensively, and they have wins over highly rated teams Florida (77-72), …

How to Win Your NCAA Tournament Pool (2017)

  Maximizing Win Probability When filling out your March Madness bracket, remember that your primary goal is not to pick the most likely bracket, but rather the bracket that has the best chance of winning your pool. Maximizing win probability requires the player to consider not only a team’s odds but also the distribution of picks of the other participants …

2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Analysis

The first part of the following example is from 2 years ago. I’m short on time and felt coming up with an example from this year’s bracket and making changes would be time better spent getting this out to you. Filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket is more than just picking the first round and then matching your predicted winners …

2016 NCAA East Team Capsules

2016 East Region (1) North Carolina (28-6) North Carolina beat Virginia in the ACC Tournament final to avenge their regular season loss to the Cavaliers but the Tarheels are just 5-5 against teams I rank in my top 40 (1-1 against Virginia, 1-1 against Duke, 1-1 against Notre Dame, a home win over Miami, a road loss at Louisville, a …

2016 NCAA West Team Capsules

2016 West Region (1) Oregon (28-6) Oregon is a dangerous team that plays their best against other good teams. The Ducks lost 5 games this season to teams ranking outside of my top 40 but they were an impressive 8-1 against top-40 teams with the only blemish being a 20 point loss in Berkeley. Oregon beat Arizona twice (once in …

2016 NCAA South Team Capsules

2016 South Region (1) Kansas (30-4) Kansas is the #1 overall seed in this year’s tournament and the Jayhawks have no weaknesses, as they are a good shooting team (9th in effective FG%) while also ranking 5th in compensated points per possession allowed. Kansas is 15-3 against NCAA Tournament caliber teams and were upset by a bad team just once …