Below you'll find a list of all posts that have been categorized as “College Basketball”
The new College Basketball Model tested at 56.7% on qualifying plays over a 4-year test sample that was not a part of the data that was used to derive the model. The initial team ratings found one team with significant value to win the NCAA Tournament. Best Bet – 0.5 Stars on WEST VIRGINIA to Win NCAA Tournament …
College Basketball Best Bets: New Model leads to 56% Best Bet winners last season! I have been very profitable on my College Basketball Best Bets over the years (+368.8 Stars the last 23 seasons), and especially in the last 4 years when I started releasing most plays in the morning when lines are softer (54.7% and +81 Stars the last …
West Region (1) Gonzaga (30-3) Gonzaga has been the 3rd best team in the nation this season in my compensated ratings behind Duke (games with Zion only) and Virginia and the Zags are the only team to beat Duke when the Blue Devils had all of their stars playing. However, the Bulldogs also lost their other two games …
South Region (1) Virginia (29-3) Virginia enters the tournament with the best compensated net efficiency in the nation, although they’d be second to Duke when excluding the Blue Devils’ games without Zion Williamson. Speaking of Duke, two of Virginia’s three losses were to Duke by a combined 12 points, but 3-point variance had a lot to do with …
Midwest Region (1) North Carolina (27-6) North Carolina is a deserving #1 seed and the Tarheels have a pretty easy path to the regional final but their only win against a healthy elite team was at home against Gonzaga in a game they made a randomly high 52% of their 3-point shots. Their two wins against Duke were games …
East Region (1) Duke (29-5) Duke is certainly deserving of the #1 overall seed, as they are 24-1 when they have all of their starters healthy, with their only loss by 2 points to Gonzaga (due to negative 3-point variance) and quality wins over high seeded teams Kentucky, Auburn, Texas Tech, Florida State twice, Virginia twice and North Carolina. …
Midwest Region (1) Kansas (27-7) Kansas is a vulnerable #1 seed. The Jayhawks are not an elite defensive team (26th in compensated defensive efficiency) and they’re a poor rebounding team for a team of their level (+0.06 rebound margin per game), so they will have to make their shots in every game they play against other really good teams, …
East Region (1) Villanova (30-4) Villanova is certainly a deserving #1 seed and will be tough to beat. The Wildcats’ 4 losses were all due to 3-point variance, as they lost to Butler, St. John’s, Providence and Creighton by an average of only 5.8 points despite a combined 27.6% to 45.1% 3-point shooting discrepancy, which is highly random given …
West Region (1) Xavier (28-5) Xavier is the worst of the #1 seeds and is also the most likely top seed to be eliminated from this tournament before the regional final – most likely by the winner of the Gonzaga vs Ohio State 4-5 match-up. Xavier is still more likely than either of those teams to make the regional …
South Region (1) Virginia (31-2) Virginia is the consensus #1 team in the nation and the Cavaliers have played better overall than any other team in the nation. However, my issue with Virginia over the years is that they have no room for improvement because their defense can’t get any better than it already is by simply giving more …
