Dr. Bob’s Week 9 NFL Survivor Strategy
Welcome back to Dr. Bob’s Weekly Survivor Strategy blog. Both of our picks survived the carnage last week – where 2,157 of 4,214 entries got eliminated. Both the Colts (our EE-favorite) and the Patriots (our Contrarian) easily won. With those two wins, we are now a combined 13-3 across suggested picks for the season (6-2 on EE-favorite, 7-1 on Contrarian). We are still down to our final Circa Survivor entry (out of an original 10), but dropping over 50% of the field means that entry now has an equity value of ~$9,100.
After last week’s bloodbath, this week looks to be a bit calmer. Four teams (LAR, LAC, GB, BAL) have 75%+ win probability. Even so, there is no such thing as a free winner in Circa Survivor. Our projections suggest roughly a 50% chance that at least one of those top 4 teams loses outright this week.
On to our picks for the week:
Our EE-Optimal Selection: The Green Bay Packers (vs. CAR)
(Win Prob: 89%, Pick Prob: 19%)
We project that almost 90% of the field will be split this week between LAR, LAC, and GB. What makes GB the EE-favorite for this week is the same thing that made Indy the EE-favorite last week: scarcity. Two thirds (67%) of all entries that remain have already used the Packers, whereas only one fifth (20%) have used the Rams and only 3% have used the Chargers. With an upper limit on Pick Probability of 33%, a Packers selection carries a good amount of value. Their 89% win probability is comparable to the Rams and higher than the Chargers, and this is likely their easiest remaining matchup for the rest of the year. All these factors combine to make Green Bay the EE-favorite pick of the week.
Saving the Rams and Chargers can be beneficial down the road, and we will be eyeing both of them in Week 14, where they are projected to be the two highest win probability teams.
The Contrarian Play: The Baltimore Ravens (@ MIA)
(Win Prob: 79%, Pick Prob: 8%)
In a week where we project most entries will be focusing on Sunday games, we find that there is some contrarian value with the Ravens on Thursday night. Without Tyreek Hill and Darren Waller, Miami used heavier packages last week in their upset over Atlanta. The Ravens match up well against heavy personnel, and we think Baltimore’s defense has a highly beneficial scheme matchup versus the Dolphins’ offense. Baltimore’s offense is also getting a boost with Lamar Jackson coming back from his hamstring injury. With only 8% of the field expected to select Baltimore, there’s significant contrarian value here for those willing to fade the Sunday favorites.
The Ravens are currently projected as the biggest favorite on Thanksgiving by a wide margin (~11%), assuming Joe Burrow is still out. For most entries, it will make more sense to save Baltimore and play one of the other favorites this week, but that does give value to Baltimore if you are willing to use them now.
For more information about the games this week, check out our NFL Free Analysis page, or subscribe for access to our Best Bets of the week!
The 90% Optimal Portfolio
For details on our selection strategy for our 90% Optimal Portfolio, see our Week 1 Blog Post and our Week 4 Blog Post.
| Selection | Team |
| 1 | GB |
| 2 | LAR |
| 3 | LAC |
| 4 | GB |
| 5 | BAL |
| 6 | LAR |
| 7 | GB |
| 8 | LAC |
| 9 | LAR |
| 10 | LAC |
For our one and only entry, we will stick with the EE-optimal selection for this week:
| Team | Num |
| GB | 1 |
Appendix:
Expected Team Pick Probability for Week 9 in Circa Survivor:
| Team | Predicted Pick % | Team | Predicted Pick % |
| LA | 42.0% | CAR | 0.0% |
| LAC | 27.0% | CIN | 0.0% |
| GB | 19.5% | DAL | 0.0% |
| BAL | 5.0% | DEN | 0.0% |
| DET | 2.5% | HOU | 0.0% |
| NE | 2.1% | IND | 0.0% |
| SEA | 1.1% | LV | 0.0% |
| CHI | 1.0% | MIA | 0.0% |
| JAX | 1.0% | MIN | 0.0% |
| KC | 0.1% | NO | 0.0% |
| PIT | 0.1% | NYG | 0.0% |
| SF | 0.0% | TEN | 0.0% |
| WAS | 0.0% | CLE (BYE) | 0.0% |
| ARI | 0.0% | TB (BYE) | 0.0% |
| ATL | 0.0% | PHI (BYE) | 0.0% |
| BUF | 0.0% | NYJ (BYE) | 0.0% |
| NO PICK | 0.001% |